UniCredit forecasts stable growth in Central and Eastern Europe.
Enlargement momentum for EU is accelerating
UniCredit foresees the EU-CEE1 economies to grow by around 2.6% in 2024 and 3.0% 2025, with the Western Balkans growing marginally faster. Private consumption is likely to lead the growth rebound, helped by faster real wage growth, rising borrowing and government transfers, comments Dan Bucsa, UniCredit's Chief CEE Economist, in the latest CEE Quarterly 'Adjustment postponed in auspicious environment',. Public investment will be the second-largest growth driver, while net exports will drag on GDP dynamics this year, he adds.
The economists expect budget deficits of less than 3% of GDP in 2024-25 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia and Serbia, with deficits of more than 5% in Hungary, Slovakia, Poland and Romania (all at risk of excessive deficit procedures), as well as Turkey.
According to the publication, pro-EU parties will win more than two thirds of EU-CEE seats in the European Parliament, thereafter, claiming more important positions in the European institutions and NATO. Enlargement momentum for EU is accelerating, with the Western Balkans likely to benefit if reforms are implemented. The accession process could also bode well for rating upgrades.
Stable capital flows will cover C/A deficits in all CEE countries except Bosnia-Herzegovina, Romania and Turkey, where additional funding will come from international financial institutions, sovereign external borrowing and private borrowing from abroad, respectively.
CEE is an area of growth for UniCredit, where the group is an undisputable leader in terms of geographical reach in 11 countries, ranking number 1 in assets in Eastern Europe and number 2 in Central Europe as of end 2023.
For the full version of Q2 2024 CEE Quarterly publication please click here: CEE Quarterly Q22024
Enquiries:
UniCredit Bank Austria Media Relations
Matthias Raftl, Tel. +43 (0) 50505 - 52809
E-mail: matthias.raftl@unicreditgroup.at
1EU-CEE refers to CEE countries that are members of the EU: Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
UNICREDIT S.P.A. 
