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TH0796010005

Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-05-14 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
52.25 ^THB	-0.95%		-2.79%	-2.79%

May. 09	Thai Oil Public Company Limited Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI
Apr. 29	Petrofac mulls debt for equity swap; sees extra charge in E&C business	AN

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	142,290	106,081	100,981	125,653	120,069	117,835	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	183,877	191,741	269,433	257,808	120,069	272,671	260,308	244,550
P/E ratio	22.6 x	-32.1 x	8.02 x	3.6 x	6.18 x	7.75 x	5.77 x	4.61 x
Yield	2.15%	1.35%	5.25%	7.11%	-	5.57%	7.56%	9.42%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.39 x	0.43 x	0.29 x	0.24 x	0.26 x	0.26 x	0.23 x	0.22 x
EV / Revenue	0.5 x	0.77 x	0.78 x	0.49 x	0.26 x	0.61 x	0.52 x	0.45 x
EV / EBITDA	14.2 x	-77.2 x	8.89 x	4.96 x	3.21 x	8.64 x	6.43 x	5.2 x
EV / FCF	-12.7 x	-4.17 x	-10.9 x	22.8 x	-	174 x	9.11 x	9.12 x
FCF Yield	-7.85%	-24%	-9.15%	4.39%	-	0.57%	11%	11%
Price to Book	1.19 x	0.91 x	0.84 x	0.83 x	-	0.67 x	0.63 x	0.57 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,040,000	2,040,028	2,040,028	2,233,836	2,233,836	2,233,836	-	-
Reference price ²	69.75	52.00	49.50	56.25	53.75	52.75	52.75	52.75
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/15/21	2/15/22	2/10/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	364,327	247,913	345,496	529,589	469,244	447,829	503,348	546,261
EBITDA ¹	12,971	-2,483	30,309	52,014	37,359	31,545	40,478	47,046
EBIT ¹	5,886	-10,037	22,885	44,270	29,560	23,031	29,197	35,904
Operating Margin	1.62%	-4.05%	6.62%	8.36%	6.3%	5.14%	5.8%	6.57%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	7,756	-3,242	15,100	42,024	24,257	19,221	24,679	32,006
Net income ¹	6,277	-3,301	12,578	32,668	19,443	15,410	20,532	25,564
Net margin	1.72%	-1.33%	3.64%	6.17%	4.14%	3.44%	4.08%	4.68%
EPS ²	3.080	-1.620	6.170	15.63	8.700	6.809	9.144	11.44
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,443	-45,942	-24,642	11,322	-	1,567	28,558	26,803
FCF margin	-3.96%	-18.53%	-7.13%	2.14%	-	0.35%	5.67%	4.91%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	21.77%	-	4.97%	70.55%	56.97%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	34.66%	-	10.17%	139.09%	104.84%
Dividend per Share ²	1.500	0.7000	2.600	4.000	-	2.938	3.990	4.967
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/15/21	2/15/22	2/10/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	128,353	155,094	108,338	120,882	155,379	-	127,901	125,426	116,820	108,662	124,206	119,556	119,532	118,900	118,900	118,900	-	-
EBITDA	-	-	7,788	18,687	32,514	-	-432.8	1,246	7,758	4,390	21,222	4,305	10,848	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	-13,670	11,702	5,858	16,855	30,509	-	-2,283	-810.9	5,854	2,138	19,281	2,287	8,904	5,805	5,615	4,915	-	-
Operating Margin	-10.65%	7.55%	5.41%	13.94%	19.64%	-	-1.78%	-0.65%	5.01%	1.97%	15.52%	1.91%	7.45%	4.88%	4.72%	4.13%	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-14,139	-	6,229	9,004	32,959	-	-40.94	101.9	6,404	618.4	13,567	3,667	7,365	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-11,274	5,483	5,033	7,183	25,327	32,510	11.71	146.8	4,554	1,117	10,828	2,944	5,863	4,015	4,069	3,907	-	-
Net margin	-8.78%	3.54%	4.65%	5.94%	16.3%	-	0.01%	0.12%	3.9%	1.03%	8.72%	2.46%	4.9%	3.38%	3.42%	3.29%	-	-
EPS ²	-5.530	-	2.470	3.520	12.41	15.94	0.0100	-	2.040	0.5000	4.850	1.310	2.620	1.895	1.822	1.749	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	2.000	-	-	-	-	4.000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2.915	-	-
Announcement Date	8/10/20	8/10/21	2/15/22	5/11/22	8/9/22	8/9/22	11/9/22	2/10/23	5/10/23	8/9/23	11/8/23	2/14/24	5/9/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	41,587	85,659	168,451	132,155	-	154,836	142,473	126,715
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	3.206 x	-34.49 x	5.558 x	2.541 x	-	4.908 x	3.52 x	2.693 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-14,443	-45,942	-24,642	11,322	-	1,567	28,559	26,803
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	3.71%	-7.57%	10.6%	23.6%	-	9.25%	11.7%	13.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.62%	-3.03%	3.76%	8.1%	-	3.88%	5.36%	6.65%
Assets ¹	386,495	108,823	334,166	403,360	-	396,873	382,993	384,678
Book Value Per Share ²	58.80	57.00	59.30	67.40	-	78.50	84.10	92.20
Cash Flow per Share ²	6.420	1.190	5.150	20.70	-	8.190	11.00	16.30
Capex ¹	27,531	48,377	35,146	31,929	-	15,297	12,503	9,897
Capex / Sales	7.56%	19.51%	10.17%	6.03%	-	3.42%	2.48%	1.81%
Announcement Date	2/14/20	2/15/21	2/15/22	2/10/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Thai Oil

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

52.75 THB

Average target price

65.96 THB

Spread / Average Target

+25.03%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing

	1st Jan change	Capi.
THAI OIL	-1.86%	3.22B
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD	+9.55%	230B
BP PLC	+7.99%	104B
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL CORPORATION	+23.47%	101B
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION	+17.63%	61.49B
PHILLIPS 66	+8.80%	61.41B
VALERO ENERGY CORPORATION	+19.95%	50.99B
IMPERIAL OIL LIMITED	+24.77%	36.97B
INDIAN OIL CORPORATION LIMITED	+24.76%	26.28B
FORMOSA PETROCHEMICAL CORPORATION	-13.63%	20.52B

Other Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing