Financials Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd.

Equities

1911

JP3409800004

Homebuilding

Market Closed - Japan Exchange Other stock markets 02:00:00 2024-05-10 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5,898 ^JPY	+4.35%		+10.04%	+40.33%

Mar. 18	Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd.(TSE:1911) added to S&P Japan Mid Cap 100	CI
2023	Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. completed the acquisition of Sasazawa Kensetsu K.K.	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	292,985	390,846	444,916	466,218	860,128	1,207,047	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	439,035	595,208	595,157	658,214	1,108,326	1,545,439	1,527,977	1,543,368
P/E ratio	10 x	12.9 x	4.86 x	4.29 x	8.31 x	11.3 x	10.3 x	9.71 x
Yield	2.48%	1.62%	3.59%	5.36%	2.97%	2.27%	2.49%	2.54%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.22 x	0.47 x	0.32 x	0.28 x	0.5 x	0.6 x	0.57 x	0.54 x
EV / Revenue	0.34 x	0.71 x	0.43 x	0.39 x	0.64 x	0.77 x	0.73 x	0.69 x
EV / EBITDA	6.33 x	9.92 x	4.5 x	3.74 x	6.65 x	7.92 x	7.55 x	7.05 x
EV / FCF	-14.2 x	270 x	11.6 x	228 x	86.6 x	149 x	36.8 x	29 x
FCF Yield	-7.05%	0.37%	8.62%	0.44%	1.16%	0.67%	2.72%	3.45%
Price to Book	0.92 x	1.06 x	0.9 x	0.74 x	1.14 x	1.45 x	1.33 x	1.19 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	181,415	181,451	199,872	199,836	204,646	204,654	-	-
Reference price ²	1,615	2,154	2,226	2,333	4,203	5,898	5,898	5,898
Announcement Date	5/10/19	2/15/21	2/14/22	2/14/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	1,308,893	839,881	1,385,930	1,669,707	1,733,169	1,995,317	2,099,217	2,236,440
EBITDA ¹	69,361	60,020	132,252	176,164	166,673	195,100	202,433	219,000
EBIT ¹	49,247	47,462	113,651	158,253	146,755	159,465	173,998	186,678
Operating Margin	3.76%	5.65%	8.2%	9.48%	8.47%	7.99%	8.29%	8.35%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	56,618	50,211	133,932	188,385	161,353	174,850	191,075	206,100
Net income ¹	29,160	30,398	87,175	108,672	102,479	106,683	116,983	124,580
Net margin	2.23%	3.62%	6.29%	6.51%	5.91%	5.35%	5.57%	5.57%
EPS ²	160.8	167.5	457.7	543.8	505.5	520.5	570.7	607.6
Free Cash Flow ¹	-30,970	2,205	51,322	2,891	12,803	10,400	41,560	53,264
FCF margin	-2.37%	0.26%	3.7%	0.17%	0.74%	0.52%	1.98%	2.38%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	3.67%	38.81%	1.64%	7.68%	5.33%	20.53%	24.32%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	7.25%	58.87%	2.66%	12.49%	9.75%	35.53%	42.76%
Dividend per Share ²	40.00	35.00	80.00	125.0	125.0	133.8	147.0	150.0
Announcement Date	5/10/19	2/15/21	2/14/22	2/14/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 S1
Net sales ¹	716,042	546,936	632,875	335,198	417,857	353,898	428,886	782,784	423,509	463,414	886,923	376,305	440,178	816,483	416,401	500,285	916,686	453,632	502,468	925,900	480,900	610,550	1,072,900	947,000
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	-	22,389	48,348	21,370	43,933	27,766	45,189	72,955	38,154	47,144	85,298	24,364	40,865	65,229	32,386	49,140	81,526	40,631	40,669	72,900	41,950	43,795	84,490	77,200
Operating Margin	-	4.09%	7.64%	6.38%	10.51%	7.85%	10.54%	9.32%	9.01%	10.17%	9.62%	6.47%	9.28%	7.99%	7.78%	9.82%	8.89%	8.96%	8.09%	7.87%	8.72%	7.17%	7.87%	8.15%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	24,300	48,431	36,589	48,912	35,894	55,298	91,192	48,311	48,882	-	25,591	41,775	67,366	32,213	61,774	-	39,772	45,478	78,750	43,300	50,050	95,700	-
Net income ¹	-	10,964	29,192	24,509	33,474	22,598	26,965	49,563	33,155	25,954	59,109	14,401	30,414	44,815	18,982	38,682	57,664	22,231	29,519	45,567	26,550	30,800	59,700	50,400
Net margin	-	2%	4.61%	7.31%	8.01%	6.39%	6.29%	6.33%	7.83%	5.6%	6.66%	3.83%	6.91%	5.49%	4.56%	7.73%	6.29%	4.9%	5.87%	4.92%	5.52%	5.04%	5.56%	5.32%
EPS ²	102.2	31.56	160.9	125.8	171.0	113.1	-	248.0	165.9	129.9	-	72.07	151.1	223.2	92.54	189.8	-	108.6	135.7	202.3	112.4	156.4	-	246.3
Dividend per Share ²	20.00	10.00	35.00	-	45.00	-	-	60.00	-	65.00	-	-	60.00	60.00	-	65.00	-	-	65.00	65.00	-	65.00	-	-
Announcement Date	5/10/19	8/12/20	8/10/21	10/29/21	2/14/22	4/27/22	8/9/22	8/9/22	10/31/22	2/14/23	2/14/23	4/27/23	8/8/23	8/8/23	10/31/23	2/14/24	2/14/24	4/30/24	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	146,050	204,362	150,241	191,996	248,198	338,392	320,931	336,322
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.106 x	3.405 x	1.136 x	1.09 x	1.489 x	1.734 x	1.585 x	1.536 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-30,970	2,205	51,322	2,891	12,803	10,400	41,560	53,265
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	9.3%	8.81%	20.2%	19.4%	14.8%	13.6%	13.7%	13%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.49%	2.9%	7.25%	13.7%	9.52%	7.48%	7.55%	8.13%
Assets ¹	531,389	1,047,954	1,202,414	794,674	1,076,847	1,427,202	1,549,448	1,531,722
Book Value Per Share ²	1,755	2,025	2,480	3,140	3,687	4,076	4,445	4,970
Cash Flow per Share	236.0	258.0	544.0	633.0	604.0	-	-	-
Capex ¹	21,214	27,877	24,278	35,939	43,105	52,500	52,500	52,500
Capex / Sales	1.62%	3.32%	1.75%	2.15%	2.49%	2.63%	2.5%	2.35%
Announcement Date	5/10/19	2/15/21	2/14/22	2/14/23	2/14/24	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

5,898 JPY

Average target price

5,098 JPY

Spread / Average Target

-13.56%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Homebuilding

	1st Jan change	Capi.
SUMITOMO FORESTRY CO., LTD.	+40.33%	7.74B
DR HORTON	-1.32%	49.39B
PULTEGROUP, INC.	+14.01%	24.75B
DAIWA HOUSE INDUSTRY CO., LTD.	+0.07%	17.55B
SEKISUI HOUSE, LTD.	+16.16%	15.12B
TOLL BROTHERS, INC.	+23.57%	13.23B
THE BERKELEY GROUP HOLDINGS PLC	+11.88%	6.95B
TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC	-1.87%	6.39B
TAYLOR MORRISON HOME CORPORATION	+11.64%	6.3B
SEKISUI CHEMICAL CO., LTD.	+11.19%	6.11B

Other Homebuilding