JAPAN TOBACCO, INC. |
Delayed
Other stock markets
|
5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 4,368 JPY | -0.95% |
|
+1.39% | +19.84% |
| May. 10 | Japan Tobacco's Attributable Profit Up 9% in Q1 | MT |
| May. 09 | Transcript : Japan Tobacco Inc., Q1 2024 Earnings Call, May 09, 2024 |
Valuation
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitalization 1 | 4,314,758 | 3,729,458 | 4,121,325 | 4,722,880 | 6,470,988 | 7,829,257 | - | - |
| Enterprise Value (EV) 1 | 4,932,101 | 4,208,419 | 4,318,216 | 4,814,306 | 6,573,041 | 7,714,297 | 7,603,736 | 7,338,236 |
| P/E ratio | 12.4 x | 12 x | 12.2 x | 10.7 x | 13.4 x | 16 x | 14.9 x | 13.9 x |
| Yield | 6.33% | 7.33% | 6.03% | 7.07% | 5.32% | 4.55% | 4.86% | 5.15% |
| Capitalization / Revenue | 1.98 x | 1.78 x | 1.77 x | 1.78 x | 2.28 x | 2.62 x | 2.54 x | 2.45 x |
| EV / Revenue | 2.27 x | 2.01 x | 1.86 x | 1.81 x | 2.31 x | 2.58 x | 2.47 x | 2.3 x |
| EV / EBITDA | 7.19 x | 6.49 x | 6.29 x | 5.64 x | 7.71 x | 8.47 x | 8.51 x | 7.86 x |
| EV / FCF | 12.1 x | 10.2 x | 8.61 x | 12.6 x | 14.9 x | 13.4 x | 16 x | 13.9 x |
| FCF Yield | 8.29% | 9.77% | 11.6% | 7.93% | 6.72% | 7.49% | 6.24% | 7.21% |
| Price to Book | 1.62 x | 1.48 x | 1.47 x | 1.33 x | 1.69 x | 1.95 x | 1.91 x | 1.84 x |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 1,773,796 | 1,774,243 | 1,774,521 | 1,774,851 | 1,775,305 | 1,775,342 | - | - |
| Reference price 2 | 2,432 | 2,102 | 2,322 | 2,661 | 3,645 | 4,410 | 4,410 | 4,410 |
| Announcement Date | 2/6/20 | 2/9/21 | 2/14/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/13/24 | - | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 2,175,626 | 2,092,561 | 2,324,838 | 2,657,832 | 2,841,077 | 2,984,728 | 3,084,550 | 3,195,631 |
| EBITDA 1 | 686,207 | 648,708 | 686,078 | 853,226 | 852,062 | 911,006 | 893,975 | 933,127 |
| EBIT 1 | 502,355 | 469,054 | 499,021 | 653,575 | 672,410 | 689,945 | 724,023 | 765,716 |
| Operating Margin | 23.09% | 22.42% | 21.46% | 24.59% | 23.67% | 23.12% | 23.47% | 23.96% |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 465,232 | 420,063 | 472,390 | 593,450 | 621,601 | 663,892 | 696,406 | 744,228 |
| Net income 1 | 348,190 | 310,253 | 338,490 | 442,716 | 482,288 | 489,186 | 521,695 | 558,216 |
| Net margin | 16% | 14.83% | 14.56% | 16.66% | 16.98% | 16.39% | 16.91% | 17.47% |
| EPS 2 | 196.0 | 174.9 | 190.8 | 249.4 | 271.7 | 275.7 | 295.0 | 316.5 |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 408,976 | 411,213 | 501,410 | 381,977 | 441,653 | 577,672 | 474,420 | 528,743 |
| FCF margin | 18.8% | 19.65% | 21.57% | 14.37% | 15.55% | 19.35% | 15.38% | 16.55% |
| FCF Conversion (EBITDA) | 59.6% | 63.39% | 73.08% | 44.77% | 51.83% | 63.41% | 53.07% | 56.66% |
| FCF Conversion (Net income) | 117.46% | 132.54% | 148.13% | 86.28% | 91.57% | 118.09% | 90.94% | 94.72% |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 154.0 | 154.0 | 140.0 | 188.0 | 194.0 | 200.5 | 214.2 | 227.3 |
| Announcement Date | 2/6/20 | 2/9/21 | 2/14/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/13/24 | - | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 S2 | 2020 S1 | 2021 S1 | 2021 Q4 | 2021 S2 | 2022 Q1 | 2022 Q2 | 2022 S1 | 2022 Q3 | 2022 Q4 | 2022 S2 | 2023 Q1 | 2023 Q2 | 2023 S1 | 2023 Q3 | 2023 Q4 | 2023 S2 | 2024 Q1 | 2024 Q2 | 2024 S1 | 2024 Q3 | 2024 Q4 | 2024 S2 | 2025 Q1 | 2025 Q2 | 2025 S1 | 2025 S2 | 2026 S1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 1,117,077 | 1,030,218 | 1,144,500 | 558,763 | 1,180,338 | 581,505 | 685,323 | 1,266,828 | 741,670 | 649,284 | 1,391,004 | 665,278 | 727,534 | 1,392,812 | 764,206 | 684,059 | 1,448,265 | 740,333 | 787,441 | 1,505,000 | 822,686 | 725,965 | 1,565,800 | 804,172 | 804,172 | - | - | - |
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT 1 | 191,029 | 251,989 | 322,100 | 18,325 | - | 178,368 | 204,604 | 382,972 | 196,330 | 91,372 | 270,603 | 206,404 | 207,151 | 413,555 | 218,292 | 40,563 | 258,855 | 215,818 | 206,294 | 400,900 | 218,458 | 65,217 | 264,000 | 200,617 | 200,617 | - | - | - |
| Operating Margin | 17.1% | 24.46% | 28.14% | 3.28% | - | 30.67% | 29.86% | 30.23% | 26.47% | 14.07% | 19.45% | 31.03% | 28.47% | 29.69% | 28.56% | 5.93% | 17.87% | 29.15% | 26.2% | 26.64% | 26.55% | 8.98% | 16.86% | 24.95% | 24.95% | - | - | - |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 174,614 | 225,961 | 314,095 | 8,569 | - | 174,699 | 186,286 | 360,985 | 174,611 | 57,854 | - | 183,146 | 190,284 | 373,430 | 212,779 | 35,392 | 248,171 | 201,266 | 212,981 | - | 230,073 | 70,359 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net income 1 | 121,739 | 172,495 | 225,200 | -323 | - | 124,110 | 139,953 | 264,063 | 139,740 | 38,916 | - | 144,684 | 142,325 | 287,009 | 155,001 | 40,278 | 195,279 | 157,266 | 151,446 | - | 164,606 | 41,627 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Net margin | 10.9% | 16.74% | 19.68% | -0.06% | - | 21.34% | 20.42% | 20.84% | 18.84% | 5.99% | - | 21.75% | 19.56% | 20.61% | 20.28% | 5.89% | 13.48% | 21.24% | 19.23% | - | 20.01% | 5.73% | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EPS 2 | 68.74 | 97.23 | 126.9 | -0.1900 | - | 69.94 | 78.86 | 148.8 | 78.73 | 21.92 | 100.6 | 81.52 | 80.18 | 161.7 | 87.31 | 22.68 | 110.0 | 88.58 | 84.29 | - | 89.19 | 25.29 | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Dividend per Share 2 | 77.00 | - | 65.00 | 75.00 | 75.00 | - | 75.00 | 75.00 | - | 113.0 | 113.0 | - | 94.00 | 94.00 | - | 100.0 | 100.0 | - | 50.85 | 96.50 | 50.85 | 50.85 | 99.50 | 55.93 | 55.93 | 103.0 | 108.5 | 105.5 |
| Announcement Date | 2/6/20 | 7/31/20 | 7/30/21 | 2/14/22 | 2/14/22 | 4/28/22 | 7/29/22 | 7/29/22 | 10/31/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/14/23 | 5/2/23 | 7/31/23 | 7/31/23 | 10/31/23 | 2/13/24 | 2/13/24 | 5/9/24 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
Balance Sheet Analysis
| Fiscal Period: December | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 617,343 | 478,961 | 196,891 | 91,426 | 102,053 | - | - | - |
| Net Cash position 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 114,960 | 225,521 | 491,020 |
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 0.8996 x | 0.7383 x | 0.287 x | 0.1072 x | 0.1198 x | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow 1 | 408,976 | 411,213 | 501,410 | 381,977 | 441,653 | 577,672 | 474,420 | 528,743 |
| ROE (net income / shareholders' equity) | 13.2% | 12% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 12.8% |
| ROA (Net income/ Total Assets) | 8.45% | 7.68% | 8.47% | 9.63% | 8.99% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.2% |
| Assets 1 | 4,121,738 | 4,038,023 | 3,996,755 | 4,596,237 | 5,365,283 | 7,089,659 | 7,560,795 | 7,753,002 |
| Book Value Per Share 2 | 1,501 | 1,422 | 1,583 | 1,995 | 2,157 | 2,266 | 2,310 | 2,391 |
| Cash Flow per Share 2 | 299.0 | 276.0 | 296.0 | 362.0 | 373.0 | 393.0 | 375.0 | 391.0 |
| Capex 1 | 131,434 | 108,620 | 86,350 | 101,044 | 125,361 | 127,117 | 129,574 | 127,260 |
| Capex / Sales | 6.04% | 5.19% | 3.71% | 3.8% | 4.41% | 4.26% | 4.2% | 3.98% |
| Announcement Date | 2/6/20 | 2/9/21 | 2/14/22 | 2/14/23 | 2/13/24 | - | - | - |
1JPY in Million2JPY
Estimates
EPS & Dividend
Year-on-year evolution of the PER
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA
Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
A-
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
12
Last Close Price
4,410
JPY
Average target price
4,100
JPY
Spread / Average Target
-7.02%
EPS Revisions
| 1st Jan change | Capi. | |
|---|---|---|
| +20.19% | 50.23B | |
| -6.22% | 64.77B | |
| +4.26% | 7.46B | |
| -15.64% | 5.47B | |
| -1.50% | 2.51B | |
| -12.05% | 2.14B | |
| -27.70% | 1.73B | |
| -13.73% | 1.22B | |
| -15.49% | 1.13B | |
| +0.58% | 1.02B |
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