Financials Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

Equities

6324

JP3765150002

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

Delayed Japan Exchange Other stock markets 01:14:46 2024-05-14 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
3,940 ^JPY	-10.25%		-4.90%	-4.45%

Feb. 26	Jefferies Adjusts Harmonic Drive’s Price Target to 4,300 Yen From 5,200 Yen, Keeps at Buy	MT
Jan. 22	Tranche Update on Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.'s Equity Buyback Plan announced on December 6, 2023.	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	364,838	454,844	720,048	406,230	417,808	416,946	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	348,172	442,530	705,518	403,660	424,361	378,481	417,113	414,501
P/E ratio	31.4 x	-546 x	1,087 x	61.1 x	55.2 x	-15.3 x	120 x	44.2 x
Yield	1%	0.42%	0.27%	0.5%	0.64%	0.5%	0.46%	0.91%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.38 x	12.1 x	19.4 x	7.12 x	5.84 x	6.78 x	6.96 x	5.43 x
EV / Revenue	5.13 x	11.8 x	19.1 x	7.07 x	5.93 x	6.78 x	6.96 x	5.4 x
EV / EBITDA	15 x	58.7 x	96.2 x	23.8 x	21.4 x	40.8 x	33.8 x	18.9 x
EV / FCF	-39.8 x	145 x	92.8 x	78.5 x	211 x	51.3 x	59.8 x	49.8 x
FCF Yield	-2.51%	0.69%	1.08%	1.27%	0.47%	1.95%	1.67%	2.01%
Price to Book	3.5 x	4.67 x	7 x	4.11 x	4.02 x	4.77 x	4.28 x	4.02 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	96,263	96,263	96,263	96,263	95,064	94,976	-	-
Reference price ²	3,790	4,725	7,480	4,220	4,395	4,390	4,390	4,390
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/15/20	5/14/21	5/13/22	5/12/23	5/13/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	67,809	37,487	37,034	57,087	71,527	55,796	59,905	76,728
EBITDA ¹	23,151	7,535	7,330	16,994	19,800	10,269	12,349	21,932
EBIT ¹	16,903	67	865.9	8,739	10,224	124	4,309	12,953
Operating Margin	24.93%	0.18%	2.34%	15.31%	14.29%	0.22%	7.19%	16.88%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	17,236	125	1,019	9,011	10,194	-27,606	2,704	12,631
Net income ¹	11,601	-832	662.5	6,643	7,595	-24,806	3,386	9,442
Net margin	17.11%	-2.22%	1.79%	11.64%	10.62%	-44.46%	5.65%	12.31%
EPS ²	120.5	-8.650	6.880	69.02	79.67	-261.0	36.49	99.27
Free Cash Flow ¹	-8,755	3,058	7,603	5,145	2,012	8,171	6,974	8,324
FCF margin	-12.91%	8.16%	20.53%	9.01%	2.81%	14.81%	11.64%	10.85%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	40.58%	103.72%	30.27%	10.16%	79.57%	56.48%	37.95%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	1,147.63%	77.45%	26.49%	-	205.95%	88.16%
Dividend per Share ²	38.00	20.00	20.00	21.00	28.00	20.00	20.00	39.83
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/15/20	5/14/21	5/13/22	5/12/23	5/13/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	21,577	17,702	14,440	26,341	15,215	15,531	15,692	17,759	33,451	19,909	18,167	15,008	13,757	28,765	13,161	13,870	12,000	13,500	17,000	17,500
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4,788	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	1,383	-81	1,743	3,527	2,986	2,226	2,126	2,514	4,640	3,426	2,158	911	-39	872	-211	-537	-400	1,400	2,100	2,900
Operating Margin	6.41%	-0.46%	12.07%	13.39%	19.63%	14.33%	13.55%	14.16%	13.87%	17.21%	11.88%	6.07%	-0.28%	3.03%	-1.6%	-3.87%	-3.33%	10.37%	12.35%	16.57%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,598	5	1,829	3,515	3,176	2,320	1,789	2,596	4,385	3,445	2,364	1,113	52	1,165	-409	-28,362	-	-	-	-
Net income	280	115	1,097	2,218	2,254	2,171	1,204	1,734	2,938	2,355	2,302	232	81	313	-715	-24,404	-300	900	1,500	2,000
Net margin	1.3%	0.65%	7.6%	8.42%	14.81%	13.98%	7.67%	9.76%	8.78%	11.83%	12.67%	1.55%	0.59%	1.09%	-5.43%	-175.95%	-2.5%	6.67%	8.82%	11.43%
EPS	2.910	1.200	11.40	23.05	23.41	22.56	12.55	18.19	30.74	24.73	24.20	2.440	0.8500	3.290	-7.520	-256.8	-3.200	9.500	15.80	21.00
Dividend per Share	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	-	11.00	-	11.00	11.00	-	17.00	-	10.00	10.00	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/12/19	11/11/20	11/12/21	11/12/21	2/8/22	5/13/22	8/9/22	11/8/22	11/8/22	2/8/23	5/12/23	8/8/23	11/9/23	11/9/23	2/9/24	5/13/24	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	6,553	1,958	167	-
Net Cash position ¹	16,666	12,314	14,530	2,570	-	-	-	2,445
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	0.331 x	0.1907 x	0.0135 x	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	-8,755	3,058	7,603	5,145	2,012	8,171	6,975	8,324
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.4%	-0.8%	0.7%	6.6%	7.5%	-27.1%	3.52%	9.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	12.8%	0.38%	1.02%	4.69%	7.23%	0.42%	2.9%	6%
Assets ¹	90,337	-221,271	64,856	141,639	105,069	-5,950,822	116,775	157,368
Book Value Per Share ²	1,082	1,012	1,069	1,027	1,094	836.0	1,025	1,091
Cash Flow per Share ²	178.0	62.30	74.00	145.0	169.0	-164.0	158.0	198.0
Capex ¹	23,876	7,892	1,952	5,690	9,236	6,800	4,832	7,850
Capex / Sales	35.21%	21.05%	5.27%	9.97%	12.91%	12.33%	8.07%	10.23%
Announcement Date	5/10/19	5/15/20	5/14/21	5/13/22	5/12/23	5/13/24	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

4,390 JPY

Average target price

4,720 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+7.52%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Industrial Parts & Components

	1st Jan change	Capi.
HARMONIC DRIVE SYSTEMS INC.	-4.45%	2.67B
TRELLEBORG AB	+21.86%	9.07B
MUELLER INDUSTRIES, INC.	+23.58%	6.62B
MISUMI GROUP INC.	+12.51%	5B
SFS GROUP AG	+9.98%	4.91B
GATES INDUSTRIAL CORPORATION PLC	+22.65%	4.3B
SHANGHAI MOONS' ELECTRIC CO., LTD.	-23.16%	2.94B
LEADER HARMONIOUS DRIVE SYSTEMS CO., LTD.	-28.59%	2.56B
HIWIN TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION	0.00%	2.56B
XI'AN SHAANGU POWER CO., LTD.	+12.28%	2.14B

Industrial Parts & Components