Financials Gulf Energy Development

Equities

GULF

TH8319010Z06

Independent Power Producers

End-of-day quote Thailand S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-05-09 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
41.5 ^THB	0.00%		+0.61%	-6.74%

May. 09	Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited Reports Earnings Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2024	CI
Apr. 23	Earth Tech Environment Public Company Limited Enters into Share Purchase Agreement with Gulf West to Energy Holdings Company Limited to Jointly Develop the Project for Industrial Waste-To-Energy Power Plants	CI

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	354,128	401,860	536,792	648,257	522,125	486,926	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	416,886	522,428	733,171	648,257	795,562	723,240	728,349	731,637
P/E ratio	72.5 x	87.8 x	70.4 x	57 x	35 x	26 x	22.5 x	21 x
Yield	0.78%	1.11%	0.96%	1.09%	1.98%	1.98%	2.28%	2.79%
Capitalization / Revenue	11.8 x	12.2 x	11.3 x	6.89 x	4.58 x	4.39 x	3.85 x	3.76 x
EV / Revenue	13.9 x	15.9 x	15.4 x	6.89 x	6.98 x	6.52 x	5.77 x	5.66 x
EV / EBITDA	52.3 x	49.9 x	46.5 x	30.1 x	35.7 x	25.7 x	23.6 x	24.1 x
EV / FCF	-75.5 x	-405 x	-90.6 x	-123 x	-453 x	-58.8 x	354 x	69.2 x
FCF Yield	-1.32%	-0.25%	-1.1%	-0.81%	-0.22%	-1.7%	0.28%	1.44%
Price to Book	9.22 x	5.86 x	5.56 x	5.85 x	4.48 x	3.64 x	3.41 x	3.2 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	10,666,500	11,733,150	11,733,150	11,733,150	11,733,150	11,733,150	-	-
Reference price ²	33.20	34.25	45.75	55.25	44.50	41.50	41.50	41.50
Announcement Date	2/21/20	2/22/21	2/18/22	2/16/23	2/15/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	30,040	32,827	47,467	94,151	114,054	110,844	126,335	129,344
EBITDA ¹	7,969	10,476	15,771	21,548	22,299	28,165	30,904	30,399
EBIT ¹	5,536	7,045	10,782	16,485	18,118	23,290	25,615	26,279
Operating Margin	18.43%	21.46%	22.71%	17.51%	15.88%	21.01%	20.28%	20.32%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	7,152	6,252	9,514	15,453	20,672	18,902	26,348	25,818
Net income ¹	4,887	4,282	7,670	11,418	14,858	18,711	21,446	23,071
Net margin	16.27%	13.04%	16.16%	12.13%	13.03%	16.88%	16.98%	17.84%
EPS ²	0.4580	0.3900	0.6500	0.9700	1.270	1.593	1.845	1.972
Free Cash Flow ¹	-5,523	-1,289	-8,094	-5,264	-1,755	-12,291	2,055	10,572
FCF margin	-18.38%	-3.93%	-17.05%	-5.59%	-1.54%	-11.09%	1.63%	8.17%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6.65%	34.78%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9.58%	45.82%
Dividend per Share ²	0.2600	0.3800	0.4400	0.6000	0.8800	0.8205	0.9457	1.158
Announcement Date	2/21/20	2/22/21	2/18/22	2/16/23	2/15/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	20,277	15,287	20,662	23,004	23,631	26,888	26,413	32,557	27,419	27,665	31,599	32,553	30,049	31,301	32,853	32,853
EBITDA	7,156	4,977	5,291	-	5,334	5,917	5,523	5,517	5,825	5,434	6,106	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	4,710	3,705	4,046	3,798	4,057	4,619	4,570	4,516	4,721	4,311	4,970	8,442	5,938	7,190	7,448	7,448
Operating Margin	23.23%	24.23%	19.58%	16.51%	17.17%	17.18%	17.3%	13.87%	17.22%	15.58%	15.73%	25.93%	19.76%	22.97%	22.67%	22.67%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	4,172	-	1,856	1,393	7,661	5,378	4,095	4,503	6,697	4,338	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-	3,043	3,395	1,531	1,087	5,406	3,850	2,885	3,360	4,763	3,499	5,465	3,423	4,675	5,068	5,068
Net margin	-	19.91%	16.43%	6.65%	4.6%	20.1%	14.58%	8.86%	12.26%	17.21%	11.07%	16.79%	11.39%	14.94%	15.43%	15.43%
EPS ²	-	0.2600	0.2900	-	0.0900	0.4600	0.3300	0.2500	0.2900	0.4100	0.3000	0.5052	0.2918	0.3985	0.4320	0.4320
Dividend per Share ²	-	0.4400	-	-	-	0.6000	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.9563	-	-
Announcement Date	8/13/21	2/18/22	5/13/22	8/11/22	11/11/22	2/16/23	5/15/23	8/10/23	11/9/23	2/15/24	5/9/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	62,759	120,567	196,380	-	273,437	236,314	241,424	244,711
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	7.875 x	11.51 x	12.45 x	-	12.26 x	8.39 x	7.812 x	8.05 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-5,523	-1,289	-8,094	-5,264	-1,755	-12,291	2,055	10,572
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	13%	8.36%	9.55%	11%	13.1%	14.2%	15.7%	15.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	3.79%	2.25%	2.52%	2.92%	3.39%	4.05%	4.34%	4.34%
Assets ¹	128,974	189,928	304,123	390,423	438,838	461,989	494,093	531,987
Book Value Per Share ²	3.600	5.840	8.230	9.440	9.940	11.40	12.20	13.00
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.7500	0.9700	1.190	0.9600	1.560	2.850	3.150	3.000
Capex ¹	13,571	11,867	22,109	16,541	18,856	27,127	28,865	34,972
Capex / Sales	45.18%	36.15%	46.58%	17.57%	16.53%	24.47%	22.85%	27.04%
Announcement Date	2/21/20	2/22/21	2/18/22	2/16/23	2/15/24	-	-	-

¹THB in Million²THB

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Gulf Energy Development

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

41.5 THB

Average target price

53.11 THB

Spread / Average Target

+27.98%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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Fossil Fuel IPPs