Financials GFL Environmental Inc.

Equities

GFL

CA36168Q1046

Environmental Services & Equipment

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-05-10 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
44.19 ^CAD	+0.48%		-1.45%	-3.33%

May. 03	Wall Street rises thanks to good and bad economic news
May. 03	ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS : Alphabet, Amgen, Starbucks, PayPal, Moderna...

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	12,111	16,076	13,578	16,912	16,636	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	18,544	25,492	22,763	25,613	25,722	25,142	24,781
P/E ratio	-13.3 x	-26.1 x	-36.6 x	-352 x	-1,314 x	85.3 x	56.3 x
Yield	0.14%	0.12%	0.16%	0.15%	0.15%	0.16%	0.18%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.89 x	2.91 x	2.01 x	2.25 x	2.06 x	1.93 x	1.81 x
EV / Revenue	4.42 x	4.61 x	3.37 x	3.41 x	3.19 x	2.92 x	2.7 x
EV / EBITDA	17.2 x	17.4 x	13.2 x	12.8 x	11.5 x	10.1 x	9.18 x
EV / FCF	251 x	102 x	72 x	36.5 x	31.9 x	26 x	22.8 x
FCF Yield	0.4%	0.98%	1.39%	2.74%	3.14%	3.84%	4.38%
Price to Book	2.35 x	2.8 x	2.4 x	2.35 x	2.45 x	2.4 x	2.54 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	326,364	336,113	343,404	369,985	376,471	-	-
Reference price ²	37.11	47.83	39.54	45.71	44.19	44.19	44.19
Announcement Date	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	3,347	4,196	5,526	6,761	7,516	8,073	8,613	9,188
EBITDA ¹	-	1,077	1,464	1,721	2,004	2,240	2,478	2,701
EBIT ¹	-	-318.3	-64.3	67.2	295.5	572.9	817.2	1,385
Operating Margin	-	-7.59%	-1.16%	0.99%	3.93%	7.1%	9.49%	15.07%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-1,356	-712.8	-359.3	192.1	-27.53	367.2	475
Net income ¹	-	-994.9	-606.8	-311.8	45.4	-20.04	207.1	370.5
Net margin	-	-23.71%	-10.98%	-4.61%	0.6%	-0.25%	2.4%	4.03%
EPS ²	-0.1200	-2.800	-1.830	-1.080	-0.1300	-0.0336	0.5179	0.7847
Free Cash Flow ¹	-	73.9	250.7	316.2	701.2	807	966.6	1,087
FCF margin	-	1.76%	4.54%	4.68%	9.33%	10%	11.22%	11.83%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	6.86%	17.13%	18.38%	35%	36.02%	39.01%	40.24%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	-	1,544.49%	-	466.69%	293.26%
Dividend per Share ²	-	0.0508	0.0557	0.0651	0.0703	0.0678	0.0719	0.0800
Announcement Date	2/18/20	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	1,540	1,401	1,708	1,831	1,821	1,799	1,944	1,890	1,883	1,801	2,059	2,132	2,078	1,943	2,192
EBITDA ¹	388.3	354.4	453.3	473.3	439.8	440.5	540.7	530.3	492.2	455.7	588.4	626.2	577.5	519.9	651
EBIT ¹	-62	-26.9	47.1	51.8	-4.8	30	118.8	128.5	18.2	21.8	190.9	222.3	142.3	100.6	255.4
Operating Margin	-4.03%	-1.92%	2.76%	2.83%	-0.26%	1.67%	6.11%	6.8%	0.97%	1.21%	9.27%	10.43%	6.85%	5.18%	11.65%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-90.9	115.2	34.7	-259.5	-249.7	-259.9	532.7	0.3	-81	-230.1	28.35	85.63	18.83	-78	72
Net income ¹	-77.4	27.4	64.3	-183.5	-220	-219.4	294.9	22.1	-52.2	-172.8	31.23	80.63	28.97	-59	52
Net margin	-5.03%	1.96%	3.77%	-10.02%	-12.08%	-12.19%	15.17%	1.17%	-2.77%	-9.59%	1.52%	3.78%	1.39%	-3.04%	2.37%
EPS ²	-0.2500	0.0200	0.1200	-0.5500	-0.6600	-0.6600	0.7200	-	-0.2100	-0.5300	0.0739	0.2014	0.0336	-0.1373	0.1584
Dividend per Share ²	0.0139	0.0154	0.0155	0.0165	0.0163	-	0.0176	-	0.0176	-	0.0197	0.0196	0.0201	0.0189	0.0211
Announcement Date	2/9/22	5/4/22	7/27/22	11/2/22	2/21/23	4/27/23	7/26/23	11/1/23	2/20/24	5/1/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	6,433	9,416	9,185	8,701	9,086	8,506	8,144
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	5.975 x	6.433 x	5.337 x	4.343 x	4.055 x	3.433 x	3.016 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-	73.9	251	316	701	807	967	1,087
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	-	-23.6%	-10.7%	-5.28%	5.43%	7.14%	6.22%	11.7%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	-	0.44%	-	0.93%	1.81%	1.77%	2.57%	-
Assets ¹	-	-224,365	-	-33,408	2,509	-1,132	8,075	-
Book Value Per Share ²	-	15.80	17.10	16.40	19.40	18.00	18.40	17.40
Cash Flow per Share ²	-	1.390	2.480	2.990	2.650	4.380	5.010	-
Capex ¹	-	428	647	780	1,055	1,152	1,043	1,121
Capex / Sales	-	10.21%	11.71%	11.54%	14.04%	14.27%	12.11%	12.2%
Announcement Date	2/18/20	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for GFL Environmental Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

44.19 CAD

Average target price

54.95 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+24.36%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Waste Management, Disposal & Recycling Services

	1st Jan change	Capi.
GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC.	-3.33%	12.18B
WASTE CONNECTIONS, INC.	+12.13%	43.19B
CASELLA WASTE SYSTEMS, INC.	+14.10%	5.67B
STERICYCLE, INC.	-5.29%	4.36B
CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED	+0.37%	3.97B
ZHEFU HOLDING GROUP CO., LTD.	-1.18%	2.41B
GRANDBLUE ENVIRONMENT CO., LTD.	+7.10%	2.09B
CHINA TIANYING INC.	-3.64%	1.57B
SHANGHAI ENVIRONMENT GROUP CO., LTD	+3.67%	1.45B
CHINA CONCH VENTURE HOLDINGS LIMITED	-4.01%	1.43B

Waste Management, Disposal & Recycling Services