Financials Ecopetrol S.A.

Equities

ECOPETROL

COC04PA00016

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

End-of-day quote Bolsa De Valores De Colombia Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-29 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2,305 ^COP	-0.22%		+1.99%	-1.50%

Apr. 29	Ecopetrol S.A. Announces Management Changes	CI
Apr. 23	Colombia predicts $10 billion in foreign investment from Europe this year-minister	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	136,301,843	92,306,980	110,603,909	99,502,401	96,213,066	94,773,981	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	165,841,206	131,760,980	189,487,781	198,074,055	96,213,066	179,203,602	176,558,629	169,061,823
P/E ratio	10.3 x	58.2 x	6.63 x	3.15 x	-	4.54 x	4.09 x	4.06 x
Yield	5.43%	0.76%	9.03%	20.1%	-	13.9%	14%	16.5%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.92 x	1.85 x	1.21 x	0.62 x	0.67 x	0.7 x	0.71 x	0.72 x
EV / Revenue	2.34 x	2.63 x	2.07 x	1.24 x	0.67 x	1.32 x	1.32 x	1.29 x
EV / EBITDA	5.33 x	7.82 x	4.52 x	2.63 x	1.58 x	3.1 x	3.1 x	3.08 x
EV / FCF	11.9 x	-71.6 x	19.6 x	12.8 x	-	6.29 x	9.68 x	9.04 x
FCF Yield	8.38%	-1.4%	5.11%	7.83%	-	15.9%	10.3%	11.1%
Price to Book	-	-	1.54 x	1.15 x	-	1.01 x	-	35.1 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	41,116,695	-	-
Reference price ²	3,315	2,245	2,690	2,420	2,340	2,305	2,305	2,305
Announcement Date	2/26/20	2/23/21	3/1/22	2/28/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	70,846,769	50,027,000	91,744,000	159,474,000	143,079,000	135,970,805	133,764,182	130,875,624
EBITDA ¹	31,108,000	16,840,000	41,967,000	75,244,000	60,718,000	57,758,391	57,004,752	54,866,358
EBIT ¹	22,163,000	7,633,000	29,594,000	60,381,000	43,746,000	45,091,412	43,289,664	40,737,026
Operating Margin	31.28%	15.26%	32.26%	37.86%	30.57%	33.16%	32.36%	31.13%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	19,099,000	4,710,000	26,322,000	54,026,000	36,788,000	34,081,640	36,296,922	36,667,017
Net income ¹	13,251,000	1,688,000	16,695,000	33,406,000	19,062,000	18,309,606	18,607,449	19,666,781
Net margin	18.7%	3.37%	18.2%	20.95%	13.32%	13.47%	13.91%	15.03%
EPS ²	322.3	38.60	406.0	768.7	-	507.5	564.0	567.4
Free Cash Flow ¹	13,900,915	-1,839,000	9,685,405	15,504,000	-	28,480,000	18,233,000	18,702,000
FCF margin	19.62%	-3.68%	10.56%	9.72%	-	20.95%	13.63%	14.29%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.69%	-	23.08%	20.6%	-	49.31%	31.99%	34.09%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	104.9%	-	58.01%	46.41%	-	155.55%	97.99%	95.09%
Dividend per Share ²	180.0	17.00	243.0	487.0	-	321.3	322.4	379.5
Announcement Date	2/26/20	2/23/21	3/1/22	2/28/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	23,333,000	31,761,000	32,473,000	43,885,000	43,438,336	39,678,000	38,853,579	34,300,183	35,130,000	34,794,000	33,179,654	35,340,407	35,157,378	34,260,809
EBITDA ¹	10,371,000	13,981,000	15,896,000	22,211,000	21,142,000	15,996,000	17,842,000	14,585,000	16,038,000	12,251,000	13,249,036	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	7,104,000	10,423,000	12,530,000	18,608,000	17,222,000	12,016,000	13,721,000	10,499,000	11,816,000	7,700,000	10,319,077	11,386,215	11,015,903	10,094,422
Operating Margin	30.45%	32.82%	38.59%	42.4%	39.65%	30.28%	35.31%	30.61%	33.64%	22.13%	31.1%	32.22%	31.33%	29.46%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	6,518,000	9,106,000	-	-	15,587,000	10,377,000	12,557,000	-	-	4,326,000	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	3,807,000	6,077,000	6,573,000	10,470,000	9,513,000	6,851,000	5,660,000	4,087,000	5,086,000	4,228,000	4,487,340	4,474,227	4,678,733	3,820,486
Net margin	16.32%	19.13%	20.24%	23.86%	21.9%	17.27%	14.57%	11.92%	14.48%	12.15%	13.52%	12.66%	13.31%	11.15%
EPS ²	92.60	147.8	-	254.6	231.4	122.8	137.7	99.40	123.7	-	119.7	127.4	133.7	120.3
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/9/21	3/1/22	5/11/22	8/3/22	11/8/22	2/28/23	5/10/23	8/8/23	11/7/23	2/29/24	-	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	29,539,363	39,454,000	78,883,872	98,571,654	-	84,429,621	81,784,648	74,287,842
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.9496 x	2.343 x	1.88 x	1.31 x	-	1.462 x	1.435 x	1.354 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	13,900,915	-1,839,000	9,685,405	15,504,000	-	28,480,000	18,233,000	18,702,000
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	24.2%	3.11%	27%	43.2%	-	22.9%	21.8%	19.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.3%	1.23%	8.7%	12.3%	-	7.93%	8.41%	8.24%
Assets ¹	129,262,159	137,436,900	191,837,016	272,608,575	-	230,832,143	221,253,849	238,645,564
Book Value Per Share ²	-	-	1,745	2,095	-	2,285	-	65.60
Cash Flow per Share ²	674.0	223.0	548.0	881.0	-	1,764	-	-
Capex ¹	13,810,852	11,026,000	12,850,616	20,731,000	-	22,921,528	21,807,824	19,801,850
Capex / Sales	19.49%	22.04%	14.01%	13%	-	16.86%	16.3%	15.13%
Announcement Date	2/26/20	2/23/21	3/1/22	2/28/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹COP in Million²COP

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Ecopetrol S.A.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2,305 COP

Average target price

2,633 COP

Spread / Average Target

+14.22%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

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PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY	+19.76%	63.92B
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HESS CORPORATION	+9.25%	50.09B
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY, INC.	+29.69%	36.71B

Other Oil & Gas Exploration and Production