Financials Coles Group Limited

Equities

COL

AU0000030678

Food Retail & Distribution

Market Closed - Australian S.E. Other stock markets 02:10:14 2024-05-09 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
16.28 ^AUD	-0.18%		-0.73%	+1.06%

May. 02	Woolworths flags customer caution amid sales slowdown and cost-of-living pain	RE
May. 01	Jarden Adjusts Coles Group Price Target to AU$16.60 from AU$16.90, Keeps at Neutral	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: Juni	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	17,421	22,130	22,450	23,701	24,531	21,761	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	17,941	31,575	31,561	32,888	32,901	30,571	30,804	30,937
P/E ratio	12.1 x	22.6 x	22.4 x	22.6 x	22.4 x	20.3 x	19.4 x	17.1 x
Yield	2.72%	3.47%	3.62%	3.54%	3.59%	4.1%	4.29%	4.8%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.45 x	0.59 x	0.58 x	0.6 x	0.61 x	0.5 x	0.49 x	0.47 x
EV / Revenue	0.47 x	0.84 x	0.82 x	0.84 x	0.81 x	0.7 x	0.69 x	0.67 x
EV / EBITDA	9.05 x	9.69 x	9.2 x	9.56 x	9.28 x	8.45 x	8.08 x	7.54 x
EV / FCF	15.3 x	18.4 x	20.3 x	23.2 x	25.4 x	28 x	29.9 x	23 x
FCF Yield	6.53%	5.44%	4.94%	4.31%	3.93%	3.57%	3.34%	4.34%
Price to Book	5.19 x	8.46 x	7.98 x	7.58 x	7.3 x	6.17 x	5.88 x	5.53 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,333,930	1,333,930	1,333,930	1,330,772	1,333,192	1,334,219	-	-
Reference price ²	13.06	16.59	16.83	17.81	18.40	16.31	16.31	16.31
Announcement Date	8/21/19	8/17/20	8/17/21	8/23/22	8/21/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: June	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	38,464	37,784	38,562	39,369	40,483	43,612	44,531	46,415
EBITDA ¹	1,983	3,257	3,432	3,440	3,546	3,616	3,814	4,104
EBIT ¹	1,343	1,762	1,873	1,869	1,859	1,978	2,069	2,276
Operating Margin	3.49%	4.66%	4.86%	4.75%	4.59%	4.54%	4.65%	4.9%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,425	1,319	1,446	1,473	1,465	1,541	1,624	1,814
Net income ¹	1,435	978	1,005	1,048	1,098	1,076	1,128	1,276
Net margin	3.73%	2.59%	2.61%	2.66%	2.71%	2.47%	2.53%	2.75%
EPS ²	1.076	0.7330	0.7530	0.7870	0.8210	0.8052	0.8424	0.9551
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,171	1,719	1,558	1,418	1,293	1,093	1,030	1,343
FCF margin	3.05%	4.55%	4.04%	3.6%	3.19%	2.51%	2.31%	2.89%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	59.08%	52.78%	45.4%	41.22%	36.46%	30.22%	26.99%	32.72%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	81.65%	175.77%	155.02%	135.31%	117.76%	101.58%	91.3%	105.26%
Dividend per Share ²	0.3550	0.5750	0.6100	0.6300	0.6600	0.6692	0.7003	0.7833
Announcement Date	8/21/19	8/17/20	8/17/21	8/23/22	8/21/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: Juni	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 S1	2024 S2	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	18,846	18,738	20,378	18,184	10,833	20,593	9,080	9,696	18,776	9,891	10,914	20,805	9,668	10,281	19,678	22,216	21,127	23,358	21,352
EBITDA	1,665	1,592	1,802	1,630	-	1,762	-	-	1,678	-	-	1,620	-	-	1,926	1,900	-	-	-
EBIT	910	852	1,020	853	-	975	-	-	894	-	-	958	-	-	801	1,064	873.6	1,015	877.5
Operating Margin	4.83%	4.55%	5.01%	4.69%	-	4.73%	-	-	4.76%	-	-	4.6%	-	-	4.07%	4.79%	4.14%	4.35%	4.11%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	871	-	-	594	851	-	-	-
Net income	489	489	560	445	-	549	-	-	499	-	-	643	-	-	455	589	-	523	500
Net margin	2.59%	2.61%	2.75%	2.45%	-	2.67%	-	-	2.66%	-	-	3.09%	-	-	2.31%	2.65%	-	2.24%	2.34%
EPS	0.3670	0.3660	0.4200	0.3330	-	-	-	-	0.3760	-	-	0.4810	-	-	0.3400	0.4400	0.4100	-	-
Dividend per Share	0.3000	0.2750	0.3300	0.2800	-	0.3300	-	-	0.3000	-	-	0.3600	-	-	0.3000	0.3600	-	-	-
Announcement Date	2/17/20	8/17/20	2/16/21	8/17/21	2/21/22	2/21/22	5/23/22	8/23/22	8/23/22	11/20/22	2/20/23	2/20/23	5/21/23	8/21/23	8/21/23	2/26/24	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: Juni	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	520	9,445	9,111	9,187	8,370	8,810	9,043	9,176
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	0.2621 x	2.9 x	2.655 x	2.671 x	2.36 x	2.436 x	2.371 x	2.236 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,171	1,719	1,558	1,418	1,293	1,093	1,030	1,343
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	29.8%	32.8%	37%	35.3%	32.2%	31%	31%	32.7%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	8.82%	6.95%	5.51%	5.67%	5.61%	6.38%	7.54%	8.28%
Assets ¹	16,269	14,063	18,236	18,480	19,562	16,859	14,947	15,399
Book Value Per Share ²	2.520	1.960	2.110	2.350	2.520	2.640	2.770	2.950
Cash Flow per Share ²	1.710	1.910	2.130	2.020	2.100	1.870	1.950	2.050
Capex ¹	1,104	833	1,279	1,272	1,514	1,429	1,327	1,253
Capex / Sales	2.87%	2.2%	3.32%	3.23%	3.74%	3.28%	2.98%	2.7%
Announcement Date	8/21/19	8/17/20	8/17/21	8/23/22	8/21/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Coles Group Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

16.31 AUD

Average target price

17.17 AUD

Spread / Average Target

+5.25%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Supermarkets & Convenience Stores

	1st Jan change	Capi.
COLES GROUP LIMITED	+1.06%	14.3B
FOMENTO ECONÓMICO MEXICANO, S.A.B. DE C.V.	-8.81%	39.14B
AVENUE SUPERMARTS LIMITED	+17.54%	37.47B
SEVEN & I HOLDINGS CO., LTD.	+8.02%	33.09B
SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION	+5.62%	19.62B
JERÓNIMO MARTINS, SGPS, S.A.	-14.80%	13.3B
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC.	+19.35%	12.14B
ICA GRUPPEN	-.--%	11.82B
CARREFOUR	-2.96%	11.93B
DINO POLSKA S.A.	-13.33%	9.79B

Supermarkets & Convenience Stores