Financials China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Equities

1055

CNE1000002T6

Airlines

Market Closed - Hong Kong S.E. Other stock markets 04:08:07 2024-05-09 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
2.98 ^HKD	+3.83%		-0.33%	-9.97%

May. 08	COMAC to Expand Facilities to Ramp up C919 Jet Production	MT
May. 07	China's COMAC to expand Shanghai C919 plane factory as orders grow	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	78,905	82,476	104,417	123,100	91,701	87,792	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	262,310	220,356	256,980	232,145	217,443	281,779	275,390	261,016
P/E ratio	21.3 x	-5.05 x	-5.07 x	-2.36 x	-13.1 x	10.8 x	6.97 x	4.9 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	0.62%	1.47%	1.7%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.51 x	0.89 x	1.03 x	1.41 x	0.57 x	0.49 x	0.43 x	0.42 x
EV / Revenue	1.7 x	2.38 x	2.53 x	2.67 x	1.36 x	1.56 x	1.36 x	1.26 x
EV / EBITDA	7.49 x	24.6 x	21.2 x	-10.2 x	25.1 x	7.81 x	6.97 x	6.26 x
EV / FCF	16.9 x	-110 x	-92.6 x	-67.6 x	7.13 x	3,276 x	117 x	48.5 x
FCF Yield	5.93%	-0.91%	-1.08%	-1.48%	14%	0.03%	0.85%	2.06%
Price to Book	0.9 x	0.86 x	0.91 x	1.87 x	-	1.14 x	0.91 x	0.82 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	12,267,172	15,329,302	16,948,417	18,120,890	18,120,906	18,120,908	-	-
Reference price ²	4.683	3.888	3.805	4.487	3.008	2.653	2.653	2.653
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	154,322	92,561	101,644	87,059	159,929	180,743	202,404	207,141
EBITDA ¹	35,033	8,940	12,142	-22,852	8,674	36,102	39,522	41,714
EBIT ¹	3,202	-16,550	-14,696	-32,199	-2,142	7,845	16,933	12,315
Operating Margin	2.07%	-17.88%	-14.46%	-36.99%	-1.34%	4.34%	8.37%	5.95%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,070	-15,195	-13,910	-31,526	-1,645	5,477	16,273	14,824
Net income ¹	2,651	-10,847	-12,106	-32,682	-4,209	3,976	12,032	8,726
Net margin	1.72%	-11.72%	-11.91%	-37.54%	-2.63%	2.2%	5.94%	4.21%
EPS ²	0.2200	-0.7700	-0.7500	-1.900	-0.2300	0.2458	0.3806	0.5412
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	86	2,352	5,377
FCF margin	10.08%	-2.17%	-2.73%	-3.94%	19.07%	0.05%	1.16%	2.6%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.4%	-	-	-	351.64%	0.24%	5.95%	12.89%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	586.68%	-	-	-	-	2.16%	19.55%	61.62%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	0.0164	0.0390	0.0450
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	81,383	38,964	-	23,149	50,068	21,471	19,346	40,817	29,344	16,898	46,242	34,055	37,775	71,830	47,661	40,438	88,099	44,601	44,444	44,444	44,444
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-2,841	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	8,799	13,314	4,457
EBIT	-	-	-	-7,298	-	-5,907	-9,537	-10,564	-5,696	-11,059	-15,671	-1,467	-475	1,433	5,586	-5,786	-	1,519	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-31.53%	-	-27.51%	-49.3%	-25.88%	-19.41%	-65.45%	-33.89%	-4.31%	-1.26%	1.99%	11.72%	-14.31%	-	3.41%	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5,483	-10,917	-16,420	-	-361	-	5,727	-5,611	-	1,583	2,461	7,191	-1,805
Net income	-	-	-4,690	-5,984	-7,416	-4,496	-6,992	-11,488	-	-	-21,209	-1,898	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	-	-25.85%	-14.81%	-20.94%	-36.14%	-28.15%	-	-	-45.87%	-5.57%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	0.0800	-0.6400	-	-	-0.4500	-	-	-0.6800	-	-	-1.220	-	-	-0.1600	-	-	-0.0700	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/30/20	8/28/20	8/27/21	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/28/22	8/30/22	8/30/22	10/28/22	3/28/23	3/28/23	4/28/23	8/29/23	8/29/23	10/27/23	3/27/24	3/27/24	4/29/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	183,405	137,880	152,563	109,045	125,742	193,987	187,599	173,225
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.235 x	15.42 x	12.56 x	-4.772 x	14.5 x	5.373 x	4.747 x	4.153 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	86	2,352	5,377
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.08%	-14.6%	-17.6%	-62.2%	-10.8%	9.09%	15%	17%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.03%	-3.43%	-3.73%	-10.3%	-1.36%	2.02%	2.18%	3.68%
Assets ¹	257,604	316,370	324,819	317,310	310,604	196,834	551,159	237,115
Book Value Per Share ²	5.230	4.540	4.190	2.400	-	2.330	2.900	3.250
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.540	-0.4400	0.8300	0.2000	-	1.680	1.780	1.900
Capex ¹	15,622	11,061	16,147	6,897	9,633	10,036	19,436	15,546
Capex / Sales	10.12%	11.95%	15.89%	7.92%	6.02%	5.55%	9.6%	7.5%
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2.653 CNY

Average target price

3.636 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+37.03%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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