Financials Athabasca Oil Corporation

Equities

ATH

CA04682R1073

Oil & Gas Exploration and Production

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-05-02 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
4.8 ^CAD	+3.00%		-4.57%	+15.11%

Apr. 29	Athabasca Oil Brief: National Bank Says Rating and Target Reflect Its "Noted Fair Value" Based On a 2024e EV/DACF of 6.0x, and "Leaves Upside Through Corporate Execution of Growth"	MT
Apr. 29	Athabasca Oil Brief: National Bank Initiating Coverage With a Sector Perform Rating and $6.50 Target	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	308.8	90.21	631.7	1,413	2,410	2,678	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	614.1	484.5	792.9	1,422	2,247	2,503	2,480	2,678
P/E ratio	1.26 x	-0.14 x	1.42 x	-	-46.3 x	7.87 x	6.49 x	-
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capitalization / Revenue	0.37 x	0.19 x	0.62 x	-	1.86 x	1.82 x	1.66 x	-
EV / Revenue	0.73 x	1.04 x	0.78 x	-	1.73 x	1.7 x	1.53 x	-
EV / EBITDA	2.27 x	14.9 x	2.22 x	2.94 x	6.39 x	4.45 x	3.95 x	-
EV / FCF	56.4 x	-3.94 x	8.79 x	8.46 x	14.5 x	6.83 x	7.27 x	5.14 x
FCF Yield	1.77%	-25.4%	11.4%	11.8%	6.92%	14.6%	13.8%	19.5%
Price to Book	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	523,447	530,675	530,845	586,489	577,994	557,821	-	-
Reference price ²	0.5900	0.1700	1.190	2.410	4.170	4.800	4.800	4.800
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	836.9	464.6	1,014	-	1,295	1,471	1,616	-
EBITDA ¹	270.7	32.58	356.4	483.2	351.5	563	628.3	-
EBIT	-	-	257.8	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	25.43%	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	246.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	246.9	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	29.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ²	0.4700	-1.240	0.8400	-	-0.0900	0.6100	0.7400	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	10.88	-123	90.24	168.2	155.4	366.6	341.1	521
FCF margin	1.3%	-26.47%	8.9%	-	12%	24.92%	21.11%	-
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	4.02%	-	25.32%	34.81%	44.21%	65.12%	54.29%	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	4.41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBITDA ¹	115.2	-	132.4	235.7	132.7	102	148.8	92.94	102	-	-	-	-
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ²	-	0.7000	-0.2300	0.0800	-	-	-0.1400	0.0300	0.0700	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	11/3/21	3/2/22	5/3/22	7/27/22	11/2/22	7/26/23	11/1/23	2/29/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	305	394	161	8.61	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	164	175	197	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.128 x	12.1 x	0.4524 x	0.0178 x	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	10.9	-123	90.2	168	155	367	341	521
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	22.6%	-	-	-	-3.11%	19.1%	19.2%	-
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Assets	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.3000	-0.0500	0.3400	0.5300	0.5100	0.9700	1.130	-
Capex ¹	140	88.9	92.1	147	140	201	256	312
Capex / Sales	16.75%	19.13%	9.09%	-	10.8%	13.68%	15.86%	-
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	2/29/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Athabasca Oil Corporation

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

4.8 CAD

Average target price

6.139 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+27.89%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Oil Exploration & Production - Onshore

	1st Jan change	Capi.
ATHABASCA OIL CORPORATION	+15.11%	1.89B
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SNGN ROMGAZ SA	+4.79%	4.34B
PAREX RESOURCES INC.	-4.05%	1.77B
PETRORECONCAVO S.A.	+0.37%	1.23B
MATEN PETROLEUM	-.--%	1.11B
BERRY CORPORATION	+14.37%	618M
CITIC RESOURCES HOLDINGS LIMITED	+54.29%	532M
SURGE ENERGY INC.	+10.80%	523M
GREENFIRE RESOURCES LTD.	+20.37%	397M

Oil Exploration & Production - Onshore