Financials Air China Limited

Equities

753 CNE1000001S0

Airlines

Delayed Hong Kong S.E. Other stock markets 01:59:43 2024-05-08 am EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
3.89 ^HKD	-1.27%		-3.71%	-21.26%

May. 07	China's COMAC to expand Shanghai C919 plane factory as orders grow	RE
Apr. 30	Air China to Acquire 100 C919 Aircraft for $10.8 Billion	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	128,759	98,007	111,194	133,440	106,023	102,857	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	164,134	174,453	279,478	257,277	241,956	298,286	293,133	268,322
P/E ratio	15 x	-4.9 x	-3.66 x	-2.18 x	-66.6 x	13.5 x	7.46 x	4.24 x
Yield	0.63%	-	-	-	-	0.06%	1.64%	-
Capitalization / Revenue	0.95 x	1.41 x	1.49 x	2.52 x	0.75 x	0.61 x	0.56 x	0.51 x
EV / Revenue	1.21 x	2.51 x	3.75 x	4.86 x	1.71 x	1.78 x	1.59 x	1.34 x
EV / EBITDA	8.52 x	-19.2 x	68.6 x	-6.93 x	28.5 x	7.35 x	7.15 x	5.95 x
EV / FCF	6.31 x	-16.6 x	-21.4 x	-10.8 x	17.3 x	47 x	24.9 x	20.5 x
FCF Yield	15.8%	-6.02%	-4.67%	-9.22%	5.77%	2.13%	4.02%	4.88%
Price to Book	1.1 x	0.96 x	1.05 x	-	-	1.29 x	1.09 x	0.9 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	14,524,815	14,524,815	14,524,815	14,524,815	16,200,793	16,593,720	-	-
Reference price ²	7.069	5.134	4.433	6.138	4.490	3.635	3.635	3.635
Announcement Date	3/31/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	3/28/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	136,181	69,504	74,532	52,898	141,100	167,715	184,110	200,771
EBITDA ¹	19,258	-9,094	4,072	-37,124	8,502	40,564	41,025	45,084
EBIT ¹	9,178	-18,500	-16,862	-46,085	-3,324	12,570	14,041	19,842
Operating Margin	6.74%	-26.62%	-22.62%	-87.12%	-2.36%	7.49%	7.63%	9.88%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	9,105	-18,475	-21,826	-45,877	-1,660	4,649	13,386	18,564
Net income ¹	6,409	-14,409	-16,635	-38,617	-1,046	4,291	8,617	13,173
Net margin	4.71%	-20.73%	-22.32%	-73%	-0.74%	2.56%	4.68%	6.56%
EPS ²	0.4700	-1.049	-1.211	-2.812	-0.0674	0.2692	0.4874	0.8568
Free Cash Flow ¹	25,998	-10,497	-13,040	-23,727	13,973	6,347	11,782	13,091
FCF margin	19.09%	-15.1%	-17.5%	-44.85%	9.9%	3.78%	6.4%	6.52%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	134.99%	-	-	-	164.35%	15.65%	28.72%	29.04%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	405.67%	-	-	-	-	147.92%	136.73%	99.38%
Dividend per Share ²	0.0444	-	-	-	-	0.002080	0.0596	-
Announcement Date	3/31/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	3/28/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 S1
Net sales ¹	70,868	29,646	17,074	36,868	12,918	11,035	23,953	18,136	10,809	28,945	25,068	34,545	59,613	45,864	35,623	81,487	40,066	39,515	87,481	58,158	34,488	59,177	63,683
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT	-	-	-7,173	-10,820	-10,450	-12,608	-16,973	-16,373	-12,739	-18,471	-3,295	-2,388	-795.5	5,253	-2,894	3,897	-1,947	-	1,513	0.098	0.098	-18,471	-898
Operating Margin	-	-	-42.01%	-29.35%	-80.9%	-114.26%	-70.86%	-90.28%	-117.86%	-63.81%	-13.14%	-6.91%	-1.33%	11.45%	-8.12%	4.78%	-4.86%	-	1.73%	0%	0%	-31.21%	-1.41%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-22,801	-	-	-	-	-	2,710	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	3,269	-	-6,321	-9,854	-8,900	-10,537	-19,437	-	-	-19,181	-	-	-	-	-	2,408	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	4.61%	-	-37.02%	-26.73%	-68.9%	-95.49%	-81.15%	-	-	-66.27%	-	-	-	-	-	2.96%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	-	-	-	-0.7200	-	-	-	-	-	-1.396	-	-	-0.2239	-	-	0.1565	-0.1100	-	0.0800	-	-	0.0800	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/31/20	8/28/20	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/28/22	8/30/22	8/30/22	10/28/22	3/30/23	3/30/23	4/26/23	8/30/23	8/30/23	10/26/23	3/28/24	3/28/24	4/26/24	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	35,375	76,446	168,284	123,837	135,933	195,429	189,406	165,465
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.837 x	-8.406 x	41.32 x	-3.336 x	15.99 x	4.818 x	4.617 x	3.67 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	25,998	-10,497	-13,040	-23,727	13,973	6,347	11,782	13,091
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	7.09%	-16.9%	-23.8%	-90.9%	-2.77%	11.5%	24.8%	19.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.38%	-4.98%	-5.67%	-13%	-0.33%	1.79%	3.59%	3.8%
Assets ¹	268,929	289,172	293,493	296,692	317,567	239,391	240,216	346,661
Book Value Per Share ²	6.440	5.340	4.230	-	-	2.810	3.340	4.020
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.790	0.1000	0.5200	-	-	1.860	1.840	1.870
Capex ¹	12,342	11,905	20,170	6,965	21,446	27,123	17,792	26,489
Capex / Sales	9.06%	17.13%	27.06%	13.17%	15.2%	16.17%	9.66%	13.29%
Announcement Date	3/31/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/30/23	3/28/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Air China Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

3.635 CNY

Average target price

5.352 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+47.22%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Airlines

	1st Jan change	Capi.
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