Financials ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Equities

ZTO

US98980A1051

Air Freight & Logistics

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:02 2024-05-09 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
21.01 ^USD	+2.89%		-2.82%	-1.27%

Mar. 21	JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on ZTO Express to $32 From $37, Keeps Overweight Rating	MT
Mar. 21	BofA Securities Upgrades ZTO Express to Buy From Neutral, Price Target is $29	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	127,110	162,737	144,919	150,066	121,537	118,747	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	121,833	146,267	135,812	133,159	121,537	106,459	103,689	98,817
P/E ratio	22.5 x	35.1 x	30.9 x	22.2 x	14.2 x	12.5 x	10.7 x	9.39 x
Yield	-	0.85%	0.89%	-	-	3.37%	3.96%	4.57%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.75 x	6.45 x	4.77 x	4.24 x	3.16 x	2.77 x	2.42 x	2.21 x
EV / Revenue	5.51 x	5.8 x	4.47 x	3.76 x	3.16 x	2.48 x	2.11 x	1.84 x
EV / EBITDA	16 x	20.4 x	16.4 x	11.8 x	8.77 x	6.88 x	5.84 x	4.98 x
EV / FCF	152 x	-34.4 x	-113 x	30.2 x	-	14.4 x	11.6 x	10.4 x
FCF Yield	0.66%	-2.91%	-0.88%	3.31%	-	6.95%	8.61%	9.66%
Price to Book	3.32 x	3.22 x	2.98 x	2.78 x	-	1.82 x	1.64 x	1.5 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	781,947	855,301	808,448	809,733	804,719	804,719	-	-
Reference price ²	162.6	190.3	179.3	185.3	151.0	147.6	147.6	147.6
Announcement Date	3/16/20	3/17/21	3/16/22	3/15/23	3/19/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	22,110	25,214	30,406	35,377	38,419	42,900	49,103	53,689
EBITDA ¹	7,635	7,155	8,301	11,289	13,852	15,481	17,743	19,861
EBIT ¹	5,779	4,754	5,503	7,736	11,232	11,807	13,918	15,750
Operating Margin	26.14%	18.86%	18.1%	21.87%	29.24%	27.52%	28.34%	29.34%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	6,757	5,035	5,739	8,286	10,689	12,289	14,473	16,465
Net income ¹	5,674	4,312	4,755	6,809	8,749	9,942	11,654	13,189
Net margin	25.66%	17.1%	15.64%	19.25%	22.77%	23.18%	23.73%	24.57%
EPS ²	7.230	5.420	5.800	8.360	10.60	11.84	13.81	15.71
Free Cash Flow ¹	803.9	-4,257	-1,198	4,412	-	7,396	8,928	9,544
FCF margin	3.64%	-16.88%	-3.94%	12.47%	-	17.24%	18.18%	17.78%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	10.53%	-	-	39.08%	-	47.77%	50.32%	48.06%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	14.17%	-	-	64.79%	-	74.39%	76.61%	72.36%
Dividend per Share ²	-	1.623	1.588	-	-	4.968	5.838	6.736
Announcement Date	3/16/20	3/17/21	3/16/22	3/15/23	3/19/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	-	7,391	9,218	-	7,904	8,657	8,945	9,871	8,983	9,740	9,076	10,619	9,324	10,748	10,366	12,085	10,295
EBITDA ¹	-	1,968	2,739	-	1,749	2,892	2,998	3,397	2,878	3,884	3,439	3,652	3,138	4,512	3,956	3,805	3,562
EBIT ¹	-	1,360	2,054	-	1,369	1,986	2,175	2,460	2,447	3,179	2,694	2,913	2,226	3,360	2,905	3,274	2,477
Operating Margin	-	18.41%	22.28%	-	17.32%	22.94%	24.31%	24.92%	27.23%	32.64%	29.68%	27.43%	23.87%	31.26%	28.03%	27.1%	24.05%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	1,397	2,103	-	1,154	2,187	2,348	2,597	2,116	3,106	2,610	2,857	2,172	3,546	2,990	3,404	2,510
Net income ¹	3,634	1,167	1,762	2,929	906.3	1,805	1,935	2,163	1,670	2,541	2,345	2,192	1,670	2,638	2,545	2,429	-
Net margin	-	15.79%	19.12%	-	11.47%	20.85%	21.63%	21.91%	18.59%	26.09%	25.84%	20.64%	17.91%	24.54%	24.55%	20.1%	-
EPS ²	-	1.430	2.180	-	1.120	2.230	2.370	2.610	2.030	3.070	2.840	2.660	2.420	3.220	2.990	3.590	-
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	1.588	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	0.6276	0.6276	0.6276	3.010	1.466
Announcement Date	3/16/20	11/17/21	3/16/22	3/16/22	5/25/22	8/17/22	11/21/22	3/15/23	5/17/23	8/29/23	11/16/23	3/19/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	5,277	16,470	9,108	16,907	-	12,288	15,057	19,930
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	804	-4,257	-1,198	4,412	-	7,396	8,928	9,544
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	15.6%	10.5%	9.74%	13.3%	-	15.5%	16.2%	16.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	13.3%	8.71%	7.8%	9.64%	-	10.7%	11.5%	12.1%
Assets ¹	42,787	49,526	60,988	70,648	-	92,943	101,504	109,125
Book Value Per Share ²	49.00	59.10	60.20	66.80	-	81.20	90.20	98.60
Cash Flow per Share ²	8.040	6.220	8.810	13.60	-	16.90	19.30	21.40
Capex ¹	2,827	9,208	8,360	7,068	-	6,026	5,840	5,629
Capex / Sales	12.78%	36.52%	27.5%	19.98%	-	14.05%	11.89%	10.48%
Announcement Date	3/16/20	3/17/21	3/16/22	3/15/23	3/19/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

151.7 CNY

Average target price

202.7 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+33.59%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Courier Services

	1st Jan change	Capi.
ZTO EXPRESS (CAYMAN) INC.	-1.27%	16.91B
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POSTE ITALIANE S.P.A.	+19.37%	17.12B
YTO EXPRESS GROUP CO.,LTD.	+32.30%	7.69B
OSTERREICHISCHE POST AG	-0.61%	2.37B
DEPPON LOGISTICS CO., LTD.	+13.20%	2.31B
STO EXPRESS CO.,LTD	+18.36%	1.93B
SINGAPORE POST LIMITED	-3.16%	765M
CTT-CORREIOS DE PORTUGAL, S.A.	+25.50%	650M
TCI EXPRESS LIMITED	-22.06%	500M

Courier Services