Financials Yum China Holdings, Inc.

Equities

YUMC

US98850P1093

Restaurants & Bars

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 04:00:02 2024-05-08 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
37.28 ^USD	-0.05%		+3.79%	-12.14%

May. 06	Nomura Adjusts YUM China’s Price Target to HK$455.52 From HK$456.30, Keeps at Buy	MT
May. 02	Nomura Trims Yum China Price Target to $58.40 From $58.50	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	18,092	23,940	21,338	22,871	17,281	14,541	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	16,435	19,705	17,382	19,761	14,893	12,555	11,970	11,798
P/E ratio	26.1 x	29.3 x	21.9 x	52.5 x	21.5 x	17.2 x	15.1 x	13.1 x
Yield	1%	0.42%	0.96%	0.88%	1.23%	1.72%	1.84%	2.06%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.06 x	2.9 x	2.17 x	2.39 x	1.57 x	1.24 x	1.12 x	1.03 x
EV / Revenue	1.87 x	2.38 x	1.76 x	2.07 x	1.36 x	1.07 x	0.93 x	0.84 x
EV / EBITDA	11.9 x	15.8 x	13.1 x	15.4 x	9.24 x	7.42 x	6.25 x	5.45 x
EV / FCF	21.9 x	28.4 x	39.3 x	26.9 x	19.5 x	19.4 x	13.1 x	11.9 x
FCF Yield	4.56%	3.53%	2.54%	3.71%	5.12%	5.16%	7.65%	8.42%
Price to Book	5.87 x	3.59 x	3.02 x	3.53 x	2.7 x	2.5 x	2.27 x	2.08 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	376,829	419,344	428,127	418,494	407,291	390,052	-	-
Reference price ²	48.01	57.09	49.84	54.65	42.43	37.28	37.28	37.28
Announcement Date	2/5/20	2/3/21	2/8/22	2/7/23	2/6/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	8,776	8,263	9,853	9,569	10,978	11,695	12,934	14,086
EBITDA ¹	1,378	1,248	1,330	1,286	1,611	1,693	1,915	2,165
EBIT ¹	912	732	1,386	629	1,106	1,166	1,347	1,472
Operating Margin	10.39%	8.86%	14.07%	6.57%	10.07%	9.97%	10.42%	10.45%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,003	1,108	1,392	687	1,226	1,307	1,447	1,600
Net income ¹	713	784	990	442	827	872.2	971.5	1,079
Net margin	8.12%	9.49%	10.05%	4.62%	7.53%	7.46%	7.51%	7.66%
EPS ²	1.840	1.950	2.280	1.040	1.970	2.166	2.465	2.848
Free Cash Flow ¹	750	695	442	734	763	648	915.4	993.8
FCF margin	8.55%	8.41%	4.49%	7.67%	6.95%	5.54%	7.08%	7.05%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	54.43%	55.69%	33.23%	57.08%	47.36%	38.28%	47.8%	45.91%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	105.19%	88.65%	44.65%	166.06%	92.26%	74.29%	94.23%	92.09%
Dividend per Share ²	0.4800	0.2400	0.4800	0.4800	0.5200	0.6419	0.6865	0.7664
Announcement Date	2/5/20	2/3/21	2/8/22	2/7/23	2/6/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	4,348	3,656	4,607	5,008	2,291	4,845	2,668	2,128	4,796	2,685	2,088	4,773	2,917	2,654	5,571	2,914	2,493	5,407	2,958	2,801	5,717	3,187	2,801	5,869	3,385	3,416
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-	177	-	365	257	-	475	189	-	539	388	-	441	243	684	495	404	864	512.3	296.6	855	606.1	481.6
EBIT ¹	-	-	-	582	633	811	191	81	272	316	41	357	416	257	673	323	110	433	374	264.4	624.6	368.7	167.3	522.7	423.7	299.2
Operating Margin	-	-	-	11.62%	27.63%	16.74%	7.16%	3.81%	5.67%	11.77%	1.96%	7.48%	14.26%	9.68%	12.08%	11.08%	4.41%	8.01%	12.64%	9.44%	10.93%	11.57%	5.97%	8.91%	12.52%	8.76%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-	-	635	-	166	115	-	326	80	-	437	286	-	365	138	503	420	302.6	706	421.9	193.6	563	449.6	325.1
Net income ¹	-	-	-	-	475	-	100	83	-	206	53	-	289	197	-	244	97	341	287	208.2	479	278.2	118.1	373	299.1	222.4
Net margin	-	-	-	-	20.73%	-	3.75%	3.9%	-	7.67%	2.54%	-	9.91%	7.42%	-	8.37%	3.89%	6.31%	9.7%	7.43%	8.38%	8.73%	4.21%	6.36%	8.83%	6.51%
EPS ²	0.8100	0.5000	1.450	0.9500	1.100	1.330	0.2300	0.2000	0.4300	0.4900	0.1300	0.6100	0.6800	0.4700	1.150	0.5800	0.2300	0.8200	0.7100	0.5001	1.200	0.6770	0.3227	1.080	0.7561	0.5659
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	0.1200	-	0.1200	0.1200	-	0.1200	0.1200	-	0.1300	0.1300	-	0.1300	0.1300	-	-	0.1582	-	0.1582	0.1702	-	0.1834	0.1842
Announcement Date	2/5/20	7/29/20	2/3/21	7/28/21	2/8/22	2/8/22	5/3/22	7/28/22	7/28/22	11/1/22	2/7/23	2/7/23	5/2/23	7/31/23	7/31/23	10/31/23	2/6/24	2/6/24	4/29/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	1,657	4,235	3,956	3,110	2,388	1,986	2,571	2,743
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	750	695	442	734	763	648	915	994
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	24%	16.9%	14.9%	6.53%	12.8%	13.3%	14.1%	15%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	12.3%	8.8%	8.22%	3.53%	6.93%	7.2%	7.64%	7.96%
Assets ¹	5,780	8,913	12,049	12,525	11,928	12,111	12,719	13,560
Book Value Per Share ²	8.180	15.90	16.50	15.50	15.70	14.90	16.50	17.90
Cash Flow per Share ²	3.050	2.770	2.610	3.320	3.510	3.840	4.630	5.410
Capex ¹	435	419	689	679	710	770	802	841
Capex / Sales	4.96%	5.07%	6.99%	7.1%	6.47%	6.58%	6.2%	5.97%
Announcement Date	2/5/20	2/3/21	2/8/22	2/7/23	2/6/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Yum China Holdings, Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A+

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

37.28 USD

Average target price

53.49 USD

Spread / Average Target

+43.48%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Quick Service Restaurants

	1st Jan change	Capi.
YUM CHINA HOLDINGS, INC.	-12.14%	14.54B
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RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED PARTNERSHIP	-2.43%	24.65B
RESTAURANT BRANDS INTERNATIONAL INC.	-6.08%	23.22B
DOMINO'S PIZZA INC.	+25.34%	18B
WINGSTOP INC.	+53.54%	11.57B
AMERICANA RESTAURANTS INTERNATIONAL PLC	0.00%	7.2B
MCDONALD'S HOLDINGS COMPANY (JAPAN), LTD.	+11.62%	5.85B
SHAKE SHACK INC.	+38.64%	4.07B

Quick Service Restaurants