Urban Mobility Trends: August 2022

INDUSTRY REPORT

Urban Mobility Trends

August 2022 edition

In August 2020 we released our first edition of what would become a biannual series of Urban Mobility Trends reports.

We surveyed thousands of people across cities in Australia and North America to track how COVID-19 was impacting the way they lived, worked and moved around cities over the course of the pandemic-from lockdowns, to reopening and recovery. While the world is adapting to COVID-19,its impact on everyday life for most people in the citiesin which we operate (Australia and North America) is diminishing as governments wind back restrictive preventative measures.

In this edition of our Urban Mobility Trends series we look at a broader range of factors influencing mobility including working arrangements and transport preferences. We intend to track these factors annually, allowing us to observe mobility trends over time and share our findings with government and industry to contribute to transport planning and policy development.

Research

Online survey conducted between 21 June and 15 July 2022

5,066 respondents aged 18+ with a driver's licence from across Australia (Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane), United States of America (Greater Washington Area covering Virginia and Maryland) and Canada (Montreal)*

Survey commissioned by Transurban and conducted by Nature

• Approximately 1,000 respondents from each Australian city, the United States of America and Canada

† Weighted average across all cities surveyed

3.5

average days people travel to their workplace or place of study each week†

24%

of people have changed the way they commute to work, with most of them switching from public transport to private vehicles†

Most people expect their transport use to stay the same over the next 12 months, with slight increases expected on public transport

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE WHAT'S INFLUENCING TRAVEL GETTING TO WORK TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR URBAN MOBILITY TRENDS

Executive summary

In the past two years people world-wide have experienced many changes in how they live, work and move around cities. While some of these changes were temporary, in response to the immediate health risk posed by the global pandemic and associated government- mandated safety restrictions, others have proven more enduring.

Our July 2022 research found around 1 in 4 respondents across the Australian cities surveyed and Montreal have changed the mode of transport they use to get to work and/or study (the number is slightly lower in the Greater Washington Area), with most switching from public transport to private vehicles (Figure 1).

These changes in people's travel habits appear unlikely to revert over the short term given that most people expect their use of all modes of transport to stay more or less the same over the next 12 months. The increasing preference for private vehicles over public transport has been playing out since the start of the pandemic, initially the result of public health measures. It now appears that some people may have changed their routines as a result of increasing flexibility.

For example, someone who took the train or bus to work five days a week pre-pandemic may now choose to drive three days a week at a time that suits them. And heading into the workplace at least three days a week does appear to be the preferred option.

People's travel habits appear unlikely to revert over the short term given that most people expect their use of all modes of transport to stay more or less the same over the next 12 months.

Across the cities we surveyed, the average number of days people travel to their workplace ranges from between 3.4 to 3.7. And while CBD office occupancy is still well below pre-pandemic levels, inner-city workers travel to their workplace just as often as others. On average, people expect to work from home 1.8 days a week once the risk of the COVID-19 has passed, which is consistent with our January 2022 findings.

Figure 1: CHANGE IN MODE OF TRANSPORT USED TO COMMUTE TO WORK/STUDY BEFORE AND SINCE THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC*

Public transport

Private vehicles

Active transport

• Totals don't add up to 100% as data shown excludes people who switched from/to ridesharing, carpooling and 'other' options.

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE WHAT'S INFLUENCING TRAVEL GETTING TO WORK TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR URBAN MOBILITY TRENDS

Another factor in how people decide to travel to their workplace is the flexibility of when they can start and finish, which could give them the ability to avoid peak times. We found that 71% of respondents in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane now have access to varied start and finish times, which is substantially higher than the 37% of respondents who said they had access pre-pandemic, when we first asked in January 2021. Despite greater flexibility in start and finish times we are seeing traditional peak hours return across the broader road networks in these cities.

Another consequence of the pandemic is supply chain disruption, which combined with increases in the cost of oil as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, has resulted in rising inflation globally. This is increasing the cost of everyday household expenses, and noticeably, the cost of petrol. Over 60% of respondents nominate the cost of petrol (or gasoline as it is referred to in North America) as a top concern. However, the cost of petrol doesn't appear to be having a significant impact on everyday transport choices, with most respondents saying they don't consider the cost of fuel, or only do so occasionally when commuting or making short trips. The cost of fuel is a considerable factor for people when planning long trips.

In Australia, the increasing cost of petrol has been partially offset by the Federal Government temporarily halving fuel excise from 44.2 to 22.1 cents per litre. It appears

widespread media coverage of the cut has not translated to increased awareness of the cost of fuel excise, with only 20% of respondents in the Australian cities surveyed able to accurately identify how much they pay per litre in fuel excise, up 6 percentage points since we first asked the question this time last year. With the temporary measure due to end on 28 September 2022, we think it may be

an opportune time for government to canvass a more sustainable road funding system.

While the past two years have seen rapid changes when

it comes to people's work habits and transport preference, it seems we are entering a period of relative stability.

We now have a clearer picture of how people are working and getting around their cities, allowing us to evaluate the impact to transport networks and consider factors in how cities should respond.

The fact that people expect to travel to their workplace for the majority of their work week, coupled with a significant proportion of commuters switching from public transport to private vehicles has the potential to increase pressure on our cities' road networks as population growth eventually resumes.

This extra demand could be offset by greater flexibility helping to spread traffic movement beyond the traditional AM and PM peak. Finding ways to maintain, and improve upon, the adoption of flexibility, such as varied start and finish times will be vital to manage future demand across the road network.

INFLUENCING TRAVEL GETTING TO WORK TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR URBAN MOBILITY TRENDS

Public transport patronage

In the cities surveyed, public transport patronage is still well below pre-pandemic levels, whereas indicators of private vehicle travel (such as TomTom congestion data and Transurban's own Average Daily Traffic figures) show a return towards pre-pandemic levels.

We found that the most common reason for using public transport is to commute, (see Figure 3 on page 6 and 7) hence the disproportionate impact on patronage numbers when compared to other modes of transport.

• Public transport patronage was down 33% on pre- pandemic levels in Greater Sydney during June 20221
• Public transport patronage was down 41.7% on pre-pandemic levels in South East Queensland during May 20222
• Public transport patronage was down 35% on pre-pandemic levels in Melbourne on July 21 20223

• Public transport patronage (rail) was down 55.8% on pre-pandemic levels in the Greater Washington Area during the first three weeks of July 20224
• Public transport patronage (bus) was down 21.7% on pre-pandemic levels in the Greater Washington Area during the first three weeks of July 20225
• Visits to public transport hubs were down 32.2% on pre-pandemic levels in Montreal during the first three weeks of July 2022.6

1. Transport for NSW, Open Data,opendata.transport.nsw.gov.au/dataset/opal-trips-all-modes
2. Queensland Government Open Data Portal, Transport and Main Roads,data.qld.gov.au/dataset/go-card-transaction-data

• Rachel Eddie and Sumeyya Ilanbey (2022, July 25) Office workers keep commuting to Melbourne CBD despite Omicron wave, The Age

1. Washington Metro Area Transit Authority, Ridership Monitoring, wmata.com/service/covid19/covid-19-public-information.cfm
2. Ibid.
3. Google, COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, google.com/covid19/mobility/

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE WHAT'S

Section 1: Travel behaviour

This section looks at which modes of transport people choose to use to move around cities and the reasons for their travel.

WORK TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR URBAN MOBILITY TRENDS

How people get around

At the time the survey was in market, patronage on public transport in all markets was below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile traffic levels across Transurban's roads in the fourth quarter of the 2022 financial year (April-June 2022) exceeded traffic levels in the same period of the 2019 financial year.

While there are small variations, it seems most people expect their transport use (across all modes) to stay the same over the next 12 months (Figure 2).

In our previous Urban Mobility Trends reports we found an increasing preference for private vehicles over public transport. These latest findings suggest the shift from public transport to private vehicles is unlikely to change in the short term. Earlier versions of our Urban Mobility Trends reports can be found on the Transurban Insights hub.

Key findings

77%+ of respondents expect to use private vehicles at least several times a week in the next 12 months.

Public transport use was mixed across markets, in Sydney 65% of respondents expect to use public transport at least several times a week in the next 12 months, Melbourne (50%), Montreal (33%), Brisbane (27%), and the Greater Washington Area (15%).

INFRASTRUCTURE WHAT'S INFLUENCING TRAVEL GETTING TO

TRANSPORT

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE WHAT'S INFLUENCING TRAVEL GETTING TO WORK TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR URBAN MOBILITY TRENDS