07 MARCH 2024
ANNUAL RESULTS 2023
Safe Harbor Statement as to the Future
Matters discussed in this release may constitute forward-looking statements. The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides safe harbor protections for forward-looking statements in order to encourage companies to provide prospective information about their business. Forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and other statements, which are statements other than statements of historical facts. The Company desires to take advantage of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and is including this cautionary statement in connection with this safe harbor legislation. Words such as, but not limited to, "expects," "anticipates," "intends," "plans," "believes," "estimates," "targets," "projects," "forecasts," "potential," "continue," "possible," "likely," "may," "could," "should" and similar expressions or phrases may identify forward-looking statements.
The forward-looking statements in this release are based upon various assumptions, many of which are, in turn, based upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management's examination of historical operating trends, data contained in our records and other data available from third parties. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies that are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond our control, the Company cannot guarantee that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs, or projections. Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward- looking statements include, but are not limited to, our future operating or financial results; changes in governmental rules and regulations or actions taken by regulatory authorities; the central bank policies intended to combat overall inflation and rising interest rates and foreign exchange rates; inflationary pressure; increased cost of capital or limited access to funding due to EU Taxonomy or relevant territorial taxonomy regulations; the length and severity of epidemics and pandemics and their impact on the demand for seaborne transportation of petroleum products; general domestic and international political conditions or events, including "trade wars", and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the developments in the Middle East, including the conflicts in Israel and the Gaza Strip, and the conflict regarding the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea; changes in economic and competitive conditions affecting our business, including market fluctuations in charter rates and charterers' abilities to perform under existing time charters; changes in the supply and demand for vessels comparable to ours and the number of newbuildings under construction; the highly cyclical nature of the industry that we operate in; the loss of a large customer or significant business relationship; changes in worldwide oil production and consumption and storage; risks associated with any future vessel construction; our expectations regarding the availability of vessel acquisitions and our ability to complete acquisition transactions planned; availability of skilled crew members other employees and the related labor costs; work stoppages or other labor disruptions by our employees or the employees of other companies in related industries; the impact of increasing scrutiny and changing expectations from investors, lenders and other market participants with respect to our ESG policies; Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977 or other applicable regulations relating to bribery; effects of new products and new technology in our industry, including the potential for technological innovation to reduce the value of our vessels and charter income derived therefrom; new environmental regulations and restrictions, whether at a global level stipulated by the International Maritime Organization, and/or imposed by regional or national authorities such as the European Union or individual countries; the impact of an interruption in or failure of our information technology and communications systems, including the impact of cyber-attacks, upon our ability to operate; potential conflicts of interest involving members of our board of directors and senior management; the failure of counterparties to fully perform their contracts with us; changes in credit risk with respect to our counterparties on contracts; our dependence on key personnel and our ability to attract, retain and motivate key employees; adequacy of insurance coverage; our ability to obtain indemnities from customers; changes in laws, treaties or regulations; our incorporation under the laws of England and Wales and the different rights to relief that may be available compared to other countries, including the United States; government requisition of our vessels during a period of war or emergency; the arrest of our vessels by maritime claimants; any further changes in U.S. trade policy that could trigger retaliatory actions by the affected countries; potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents, climate-related incidents, environmental factors, political events, public health threats, acts by terrorists or acts of piracy on ocean-going vessels; the impact of adverse weather and natural disasters; damage to storage and receiving facilities; potential liability from future litigation and potential costs due to environmental damage and vessel collisions; and the length and number of off-hire periods and dependence on third-party managers.
In the light of these risks and uncertainties, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements contained in this release because they are statements about events that are not certain to occur as described or at all. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of our future performance, and actual results and future developments may vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.
Except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, the Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions or updates to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Please see TORM's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for a more complete discussion of certain of these and other risks and uncertainties. The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date hereof, and the Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of developments occurring after the date of this communication.
ANNUAL RESULTS 2023 | 2 |
Today's Presenters
JACOB MELDGAARD
- Executive Director of TORM plc
- CEO of TORM A/S since 2010
- Member of the Board of Danish Shipping
- Member of the Board of Danish Ship Finance
- Member of the Board of the International Chamber of Shipping
- 30+ years of shipping experience
KIM BALLE
- Chief Financial Officer of TORM A/S since 2019
- Previously Group CFO of CASA A/S and DLG A.M.B.A
- Member of the Board of several financial institutions and non-financial institutions
- 30+ years of finance experience
ANNUAL RESULTS 2023 | 3 |
Highlights Full Year 2023
- Historically strong performance in 2023 with TCE and EBITDA growing to new record high reflecting increased ton-mile demand as geopolitical tensions continue
- Strong execution with very satisfactory TCE/day as the One TORM operating platform continues to add value
- Strategic positioning of fleet to further capitalize on expected strong markets
- Acquisition of 23 vessels and divestment of 11 vessels in 2023 and Q1 2024
- Significantly adding to exposure to LR2-segment
- Actively using of shares as partial payment
- Strong return of cash to shareholders with dividend of close to USD 500m for full year 2023
ANNUAL RESULTS 2023
TCE
USD 1,084m
2022: USD 982m
EBITDA
USD 848m
2022: USD 743m
Fleet size (fully delivered basis)
90 vessels
2022: 78 vessels
Dividend
USD 497m
2022: USD 379m
4
Additional Geopolitical Tensions Leading to Higher Freight Rate Volatility
Clarksons avg. MR benchmark | |||
USD/day | Clarksons avg. MR benchmark - annual avg. | ||
110,000 | Clarksons LR2 benchmark | ||
Clarksons LR2 benchmark - annual avg. | |||
Houthi attacks at | |||
100,000 | Bab-el-Mandeb Strait | ||
90,000 | |||
80,000 | Russia's invasion of | ||
Ukraine leading to | |||
70,000 | sanctions against | ||
Russia | |||
Q4 2014 oil price | COVID-19 | ||
60,000 | crash and start of | ||
inventory build-up | |||
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- | Jan- | Jul- |
14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 |
Clarksons avg. MR benchmark: basket of Rotterdam->NY,Bombay->Chiba, Mina Al Ahmadi->Rotterdam,Amsterdam->Lome,Houston->Rio de Janeiro, Singapore->Sydney.
Clarksons LR2 benchmark: basket of China->Singapore->AG->Rotterdam->Skikda->China and Ras Tanura->Chiba->Ulsan->Singapore triangulated earnings.
Non-eco,non-scrubber vessel.
Sources: Clarksons, TORM.
5
Geopolitics Increasing Trading Distances and Ton-mile Demand
2023: Sanctions against Russia | 2024YTD: The Red Sea disruption |
- The EU sanctions and G7 price cap on Russian oil products led to a trade recalibration, with both EU CPP imports and Russian CPP exports redirecting towards regions further afield. This added ~7% to product tanker ton-miles in 2023 y-o-y, with the new higher ton-mile level expected to remain as long as sanctions remain in place.
Source: TORM.
- Houthi attacks on vessels travelling through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have led to a large-scale rerouting of vessels away from the Red Sea to take the longer Cape of Good Hope route. TORM expects the Red Sea disruption to add ~5% to product tanker ton-miles, assuming partial trade redirection and some loss in trade volumes.
Sources: TORM.
Source: TORM. | 6 |
The Red Sea Disruption Leading to a Widespread Vessel Rerouting
Yanbu
Samref
Yasref
Jazan
High risk area
- Prior to disruption, around 12% of global clean petroleum product volumes travelled through the Red Sea, while for LR2s, the corresponding share was 45%.
- Houthi attacks on vessels travelling through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have led to the number of product tankers arriving at the Gulf of Aden falling by 46% compared to the first half of December 2023.
- Dependent on the sailing route, redirecting vessels away from the Red Sea to sail around the Cape of Good Hope is increasing travelling distance by 30-70%.
- The number of Suez Canal transits by product tankers has declined by 42%, as exports from refineries in Yanbu and Jazan towards Europe and North Africa are not directly affected by Houthi attacks (~330k b/d in 2024YTD or ~15% of pre-disruption flows through Suez Canal).
Sources: TORM, Clarksons.
7
Fundamental Drivers Supporting the Product Tanker Market
Refinery closures and capacity additions in 2020-2024 (kb/d)
- Since 2020, 2.7m b/d of refining capacity has been closed down permanently and a further 0.4m b/d is set to be closed down during ROY2023-2024 - most of this is in net importing regions.
- Refinery closures compare with global capacity expansion of ~4 mb/d, almost half of which having taken place in 2023 and is mostly located in the Middle East and China, i.e. large exporters of oil products.
Sources: TORM, various industry sources.
No. of vessels involved in CPP flows to Australia and New Zealand per month
No. of vessels | Bn ton-mile |
140 | MR/Handy | LR2 | 20 | ||||
LR1 | Ton-mile (RHS) | ||||||
120 | 18 | ||||||
16 | |||||||
100 | 14 | ||||||
80 | 12 | ||||||
89 | 91 | 10 | |||||
60 | 70 | 73 | 8 | ||||
64 | |||||||
67 | |||||||
40 | 6 | ||||||
5 | 4 | ||||||
20 | 11 | ||||||
7 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 2 | |||
14 | 22 | ||||||
11 | 10 | 11 | |||||
0 | 9 | 0 | |||||
Jan-19 | Jan-20 | Jan-21 | Jan-22 | Jan-23 | Jan-24 | ||
- After the closure of two out of four refineries in Australia in 2021 and the sole remaining refinery in New Zealand in 2022, the region's CPP imports have increased by 60% vs. 2019.
- Australia's imports in 2024 are further supported by higher national stockholding obligation especially for diesel (extended deadline 1 July 2024).
Sources: TORM, Kpler.
8
Fleet Growth Remains Manageable Despite Increased Newbuilding Activity in 2023
Product tanker order book vs ageing fleet
%
30 | Order book as % of the fleet | ||||||
26 | Capacity above 20 years as % of the fleet | ||||||
25 | |||||||
21 | |||||||
20 | |||||||
15 | |||||||
15 | 13 | 13 | |||||
11 | |||||||
10 | |||||||
7 | |||||||
5 | 4 | ||||||
0 | |||||||
Total product | LR2 | Aframax | LR2/Aframax | ||||||
tanker segment | combined | ||||||||
Fleet (No.) | 3,510 | 441 | 668 | 1,110 | |||||
Order book (No.) | 381 | 114 | 26 | 140 |
- Product tanker order book to fleet ratio is at 13% with delivery from 2024 to 2027, which implies fleet additions of ~3% in annualised basis.
Product tanker deliveries and removals (m dwt)
m dwt
20 | Scrapping forecast | Deliveries of additional ordering, forecast | Deliveries | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
18 | Scrapping | Confirmed order book | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
16 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-12 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
- Increased likelihood for recycling as an increasing share of the fleet reaches a natural recycling age (25 years).
Sources: TORM, Clarksons. Fleet and order book data as per 1 March 2024.
Sources: TORM, Clarksons. Note: 20% delivery slippage from 2025 to 2026 is assumed. Vessels today older than 25 years are expected to be scrapped in equal proportions within the next five years, except for in 2024 where we expect scrapping only for vessels turning 25 years.
9
Strong Product Tanker Demand and Supply Balances Even if some Drivers were to Subside
Ton-mile demand
Index | ||
115 | 5 | 113 |
110 | 108 | |
1 | ||
7 | ||
105 | ||
100 | 110 | |
100 | ||
95 | ||
90 |
Ton-mile | Sanctions | Refinery | Ton-mile | Red Sea | Ton-mile |
in 2022 | on Russia | dislocation | in 2023 | disruption and | range in 2024 |
other trade |
Index=100 equals to 7.4bn ton-mile per day on average in 2022 (corresponding to 2,687bn ton-miles in total in 2022)
- Global product tanker ton-mile demand grew by 8% in 2023 y-o-y, which was mainly driven by trade recalibration due to sanctions against Russia.
- Product tanker ton-mile demand can potentially increase by a further 5% for as long as the Red Sea disruption lasts.
- For 2024, the ton-mile growth is assessed to range between 2% y-o-y (in case the Red Sea disruption lasts until end-Q2 2024) and 5% (in case the Red Sea disruption lasts until the end of 2024).
Sources: TORM, Kpler.
Tonnage supply
Index | |||||
115 | |||||
110 | |||||
106 | |||||
105 | |||||
2 | -2 | 2 | |||
100 | 100 | ||||
100 | |||||
95 | 102 | ||||
90 | |||||
Tonnage | Net fleet | LR2 migration | Tonnage | Net fleet | Tonnage |
supply | growth | to dirty | supply | growth | supply range |
end 2022 | end 2023 | end 2024 |
Index=100 equals to 192m dwt
- Net migration of LR2s into dirty markets in 2023 resulted in net zero growth in effective fleet in 2023.
- With the nominal product tanker fleet expected to grow by 2% in FY 2024, the effective tonnage supply growth could range between 2% (no LR2 migration to clean) and 6% (in case all LR2s below 10 years migrate to clean).
Sources: TORM, Clarksons.
10
Attachments
- Original Link
- Original Document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
TORM plc published this content on 07 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 15 March 2024 16:15:14 UTC.