SCANCELL HOLDINGS PLC Trinity Delta
Scancell
Modi-1 successful in first part of Phase I/II trial
Scancell's Modi-1 has successfully completed the monotherapy arm of the ModiFY Phase I/II trial, generating important results for the Moditope oncology vaccine platform. The first element of ModiFY showed Modi-1 was safe and well tolerated. There were encouraging, albeit early, signals of efficacy despite the advanced disease status of all patients. 23 patients have been treated to date, with 14 patients evaluated; of these 14, one has had a partial response and seven have stable disease. These data are particularly promising and support continuation into the monotherapy expansion phase and, importantly, the initiation of the checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) combination arm. The outcome of combination treatment cohorts will help define Modi-1's clinical and commercial positioning. These data drive increased confidence in the Moditope platform, leading to an uplift in our rNPV valuation to £300.1m, or 36.7p (from £269.6m, or 32.9p/share previously).
Year-end: April 30 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
Revenues (£m) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
Adj. PBT (£m) | (17.7) | (11.9) | (17.6) | (24.0) |
Net Income (£m) | (15.5) | (2.1) | (15.7) | (21.9) |
EPS (p) | (2.28) | (0.25) | (1.93) | (2.68) |
Cash (£m) | 41.1 | 28.7 | 17.8 | 20.2 |
EBITDA (£m) | (8.6) | (12.6) | (13.8) | (20.2) |
Source: Trinity Delta Note: Adjusted numbers exclude exceptionals
- Moditope shows early signs of efficacy ThePhase I/IIModi-1study(ModiFY) is a two stage trial. The initial dose escalation and safety phase is followed by a number of specific patient cohorts that explore for signs of efficacy in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC), ovarian cancer, head & neck cancer, and renal cancer as both Modi-1monotherapy and in combination with checkpoint inhibitors (CPI). A total of up to 138 patients across up to 20 UK sites will be treated, with 23 successfully vaccinated so far. Of these, 14 patients have reached the eight-weekevaluation point, with no dose-limitingtoxicities or safety concerns seen. Despite having failed at least one round of prior treatment and having progressive disease prior to study enrolment, one patient has a confirmed partial response and seven have stable disease.
- Progressing into combination therapy With safety and tolerability confirmed, Modi-1 is progressing into further dose escalation as monotherapy and, importantly, initiating combination therapy with a CPI. It is data from these elements of the study that will provide multiple insights into how and where Modi-1 could be employed. The indications selected are all aggressive and difficult to treat cancers, with clear clinical needs. If the early efficacy signals seen in the first part of ModiFY are confirmed in the latter parts, this would effectively demonstrate Moditope's mode of action and would further de-risk the programme in our rNPV model.
- Raising our valuation to £300.1m, equivalent to 36.7p We explored Scancell's investment case in detail in our recentFebruary 2023 Outlook.Increasing the probability on Moditope to 12.5% (from 10%) sees our rNPV rise to £300.1m (from £269.6m), or 36.7p/share (30.5p fully diluted). The next 12 to 18 months should see several potential value inflection points, ranging from trial results to further commercial deals. Positive outcomes should boost investor sentiment materially.
Update
21 February 2023
Price | 18.00p |
Market Cap | £147.3m |
Enterprise Value | £124.4m |
Shares in issue | 818.4m |
12 month range | 10.5p-29.4p |
Free float | 54.4% |
Primary exchange | AIM London |
Other exchanges | N/A |
Sector | Healthcare |
Company Code | SCLP.L |
Corporate client | Yes |
Company description
Scancell is a clinical-stage immuno- oncology specialist that has four broadly applicable technology platforms. Two are therapeutic vaccines, Moditope and ImmunoBody, and two are antibody based, GlyMab and AvidiMab.
Analysts
Lala Gregorek
lgregorek@trinitydelta.org +44 (0) 20 3637 5043
Philippa Gardner
pgardner@trinitydelta.org +44 (0) 20 3637 5042
Trinity Delta
Scancell
Exhibit 1: Summary of financials
Year-end: April 30 | £'000s | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023E | 2024E |
INCOME STATEMENT | ||||||
Revenues | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,271 | 0 | |
Cost of goods sold | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Gross Profit | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5,271 | 0 | |
R&D expenses | (4,667) | (6,406) | (9,477) | (14,504) | (15,144) | |
General and administrative expenses | (2,115) | (3,346) | (4,787) | (5,266) | (5,792) | |
Underlying operating profit | (6,782) | (9,752) | (14,264) | (14,499) | (20,936) | |
Other revenue/expenses | 0 | 918 | 965 | 0 | 0 | |
EBITDA | (6,739) | (8,585) | (12,559) | (13,842) | (20,249) | |
Operating Profit | (6,782) | (8,834) | (13,299) | (14,499) | (20,936) | |
Interest expense | 14 | (1,648) | (2,878) | (2,220) | (3,041) | |
Other financing costs/income | 0 | (6,323) | 12,409 | (910) | 0 | |
Profit Before Taxes | (6,768) | (16,805) | (3,768) | (17,628) | (23,977) | |
Adj. PBT | (6,768) | (17,723) | (11,899) | (17,628) | (23,977) | |
Current tax income | 1,262 | 1,328 | 1,703 | 1,895 | 2,031 | |
Cumulative preferred stock dividend | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Net Income | (5,506) | (15,477) | (2,065) | (15,733) | (21,947) | |
EPS (p) | (1.21) | (2.28) | (0.25) | (1.93) | (2.68) | |
Adj. EPS (p) | (1.21) | (2.42) | (1.25) | (1.93) | (2.68) | |
DPS (p) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
Average no. of shares (m) | 456.2 | 678.6 | 815.2 | 815.9 | 818.4 | |
Gross margin | N/A | N/A | N/A | 100% | N/A | |
BALANCE SHEET | ||||||
Current assets | 5,208 | 44,668 | 32,362 | 21,156 | 23,500 | |
Cash and cash equivalents | 3,575 | 41,110 | 28,725 | 17,766 | 20,160 | |
Accounts receivable | 371 | 968 | 647 | 400 | 350 | |
Inventories | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Other current assets | 1,262 | 2,590 | 2,990 | 2,990 | 2,990 | |
Non-current assets | 3,610 | 4,390 | 6,159 | 5,702 | 5,215 | |
Property, plant & equipment | 195 | 975 | 2,744 | 2,287 | 1,800 | |
Other non-current assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Current liabilities | (1,091) | (2,295) | (2,452) | (3,980) | (24,476) | |
Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (20,000) | |
Accounts payable | (1,041) | (2,087) | (2,137) | (3,665) | (4,161) | |
Other current liabilities | (50) | (208) | (315) | (315) | (315) | |
Non-current liabilities | (79) | (27,278) | (17,959) | (19,909) | (19,659) | |
Long-term debt | 0 | (27,215) | (17,103) | (19,303) | (19,303) | |
Other non-current liabilities | (79) | (63) | (856) | (606) | (356) | |
Equity | 7,648 | 19,485 | 18,110 | 2,969 | (15,420) | |
Share capital | 38,853 | 65,834 | 65,834 | 65,977 | 65,977 | |
Other | (31,205) | (46,349) | (47,724) | (63,008) | (81,397) | |
CASH FLOW STATEMENTS | ||||||
Operating cash flow | (4,772) | (7,803) | (10,730) | (9,900) | (17,245) | |
Profit before tax | (6,768) | (16,805) | (3,768) | (17,628) | (23,977) | |
Non-cash adjustments | 22 | 8,553 | (8,101) | 4,786 | 4,828 | |
Change in working capital | 143 | 449 | 372 | 1,775 | 545 | |
Interest paid | 0 | 0 | (537) | (537) | (537) | |
Taxes paid | 1,831 | 0 | 1,304 | 1,703 | 1,895 | |
Investing cash flow | (13) | (741) | (1,264) | (42) | (111) | |
CAPEX on tangible assets | (27) | (744) | (1,268) | (200) | (200) | |
Other investing cash flows | 14 | 3 | 4 | 158 | 89 | |
Financing cash flow | 3,800 | 46,079 | (391) | (107) | 19,750 | |
Proceeds from equity | 3,827 | 22,727 | 0 | 143 | 0 | |
Increase in loans | 0 | 23,506 | 0 | 0 | 20,000 | |
Other financing cash flow | (27) | (154) | (391) | (250) | (250) | |
Net increase in cash | (985) | 37,535 | (12,385) | (10,959) | 2,394 | |
Cash at start of year | 4,560 | 3,575 | 41,110 | 28,725 | 17,766 | |
Cash at end of year | 3,575 | 41,110 | 28,725 | 17,766 | 20,160 | |
Net cash at end of year | 3,575 | 13,895 | 11,622 | (1,537) | (19,143) |
Source: Company, Trinity Delta Note: Adjusted numbers exclude exceptionals.
2 | 20 February 2023 |
Trinity Delta
Scancell
Philippa Gardner | pgardner@trinitydelta.org |
+44 (0) 20 3637 5042 | |
Lala Gregorek | |
+44 (0) 20 3637 5043 | |
Franc Gregori | |
+44 (0) 20 3637 5041 |
Disclaimer
Trinity Delta Research Limited ("TDRL"; firm reference number: 725161), which trades as Trinity Delta, is an appointed representative of Equity Development Limited ("ED"). The contents of this report, which has been prepared by and is the sole responsibility of TDRL, have been reviewed, but not independently verified, by ED which is authorised and regulated by the FCA, and whose reference number is 185325.
ED is acting for TDRL and not for any other person and will not be responsible for providing the protections provided to clients of TDRL nor for advising any other person in connection with the contents of this report and, except to the extent required by applicable law, including the rules of the FCA, owes no duty of care to any other such person. No reliance may be placed on ED for advice or recommendations with respect to the contents of this report and, to the extent it may do so under applicable law, ED makes no representation or warranty to the persons reading this report with regards to the information contained in it.
In the preparation of this report TDRL has used publicly available sources and taken reasonable efforts to ensure that the facts stated herein are clear, fair and not misleading, but make no guarantee or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein, nor to provide updates should fresh information become available or opinions change.
Any person who is not a relevant person under section of Section 21(2) of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 of the United Kingdom should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. Research on its client companies produced by TDRL is normally commissioned and paid for by those companies themselves ('issuer financed research') and as such is not deemed to be independent, as defined by the FCA, but is 'objective' in that the authors are stating their own opinions. The report should be considered a marketing communication for purposes of the FCA rules. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. TDRL does not hold any positions in any of the companies mentioned in the report, although directors, employees or consultants of TDRL may hold positions in the companies mentioned. TDRL does impose restrictions on personal dealings. TDRL might also provide services to companies mentioned or solicit business from them.
This report is being provided to relevant persons to provide background information about the subject matter of the note. This document does not constitute, nor form part of, and should not be construed as, any offer for sale or purchase of (or solicitation of, or invitation to make any offer to buy or sell) any Securities (which may rise and fall in value). Nor shall it, or any part of it, form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment whatsoever. The information that we provide is not intended to be, and should not in any manner whatsoever be, construed as personalised advice. Self-certification by investors can be completed free of charge at www.fisma.org.TDRL, its affiliates, officers, directors and employees, and ED will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any use of this document, to the maximum extent that the law permits.
Copyright 2023 Trinity Delta Research Limited. All rights reserved.
More information is available on our website: www.trinitydelta.org
Trinity Delta, 80 Cheapside, London, EC2V 6EE. Contact:info@trinitydelta.org
Attachments
- Original Link
- Original Document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
Scancell Holdings plc published this content on 21 February 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 21 February 2023 08:49:09 UTC.
