Panorama (Córdoba)
Trading update 1Q2024
April 30th, 2024
Disclaimer
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2.
Agenda
Table of Contents
1. Highlights
2. Business Update
3. Closing remarks
Today's Presenters
Jorge Pérez de Leza | Borja Tejada | Juan Carlos Calvo |
CEO | CFO | Strategy & IR |
3.
Venere (Marbella)
1. Highlights
1Q Highlights
Housing
market
Financials
Shareholder remuneration
Strong demand at the start of the year
• | MVC presales +30% YoY in euros: +20% in units, +8% ASP |
• | Expected levers to sustain future demand: interest rates cuts, |
improved GDP growth expectations, solid labour market |
Solid growth with improved margins
- +72% YoY revenues from deliveries: +57% ASP, +10% in units
- 23.7% gross margin (+2.2 p.p.)(1)
- 12.8% Ebitda margin (+7.3 p.p.)
Forthcoming dividend
- €0.36 p.s. in cash approved in today's AGM
- Payment on May 23rd, ex-dividend on May 21st
Note:
(1) Quarterly gross margin is influenced by the product mix of the deliveries in that period. More details on page 10 | 5. |
Villas de la Vega (Villaviciosa de Odón, Madrid)
2. Business Update
Key operational data
as of March 31st, 2024
Active | Construction |
projects | |
Sales Backlog (1)
3,477 | €1,113m | units under | ||
Sold units | €320 k/unit ASP (2) | 4,451 construction (4) | ||
In commercialization | developments | |||
6,344 | ||||
€345 k/unit ASP (2) | 70 under construction | |||
units | 96 projects (3) | (3,4) | ||
Active units | ||||
7,654 | 115 active projects (3) |
units
Notes:
- Defined as cumulative pre-sales (reservations + contracts) minus deliveries
- ASP = Average Selling Price
- Excluding those projects with less than 10 units remaining
- Includes units with construction works completed
- Pre-salesin the period, net of cancellations
Deliveries /
Sales
364 unitsdelivered in the period
€375 k/unit ASP (2)
509 units pre-sold(5)
in the period
€327 k/unit ASP (2)
Land portfolio
Land Sales
€3.4m | in P&L revenues |
€45m | pipeline binding |
contracts |
Land Purchases
130 units in 1Q24
~28.7k
residential units in land bank
Financials
€292m
Net debt
€186m
Total cash
12.1%
LTV ratio
7.
The Spanish housing context
Macro supportive of demand
Improvement in economic forecasts:
Recent upgrade in Spain's 2024 GDP forecasts
(Expected GDP % growth; source: BoS and Eurostat)
1.9% | 1.9% | ||
(+30bp) | (=) | 1.5% | |
(=) | |||
0.6% | |||
(-20bp) | |||
Spain | EU | Spain | EU |
2024E | 2025E |
* Latest estimate as of Mar.-24 (var. vs. previous estimate in Dec.-23)
The labour market remains strong:
Employment continues to grow
(Nº of employees; millions, source INE)
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
Mar-09 | Mar-10 | Mar-11 | Mar-12 | Mar-13 | Mar-14 | Mar-15 | Mar-16 | Mar-17 | Mar-18 | Mar-19 | Mar-20 | Mar-21 | Mar-22 | Mar-23 | Mar-24 |
Stabilisation of mortgage costs:
Slight decline of Euribor, anticipating ECB rate cuts
(% Euribor; % Mortgage cost (interest rate); Source: BoS)
5%
4% | 3.7% |
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
Dec-21 | Mar-22 | Jun-22 | Sep-22 | Dec-22 | Mar-23 | Jun-23 | Sep-23 | Dec-23 | Mar-24 |
Euribor | Interest cost (mortgages) | ||||||||
- Upward revisions in GDP forecasts for Spain (+30 bp for 2024), which continues to display a stronger performance vs. EU avg.
- Economic growth should continue to support housing demand in the short/medium term
- The Spanish unemployment rate has dropped to 11.5% in February, a minimum over the past 15 years
- A healthy labour market is a key driver for housing demand, alongside demographic trend
- Households' finances are healthy: with a low debt position and high deposit levels
- The above, coupled with the expectations of future rate cuts, has a positive impact on housing demand
8.
Pre-sales
Strong demand in 1Q24 YoY: +20% in units, +30% in €m
Net pre-sales by quarter
# units
483 | 494 | 509 | ||||||||||
425 | 434 | |||||||||||
1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | |
ASP | €302k | €345k | €303k | €338k | €327k |
Strong start:
Best Q since 1Q22
Pre-sales volume 1Q24:
509 units, +19.8% YoY
ASP 1Q24:
€327k, +8.3% YoY on product mix and slight price increase
Increase in absorption rate (1)
Above 2.5% historical average
4%
3%
2% | Average | ||||||||||||||||||||||
2019-2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||
1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 | 1Q21 | 2Q21 | 3Q21 | 4Q21 | 1Q22 | 2Q22 | 3Q22 | 4Q22 | 1Q23 | 2Q23 | 3Q23 | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | |||
2.7% in 1Q24
Notes:
(1) Calculated as monthly net presales divided by average number of units in commercialisation, including both sold and unsold units
9.
Residential deliveries
Strong growth of revenues and gross margin
Revenues from residential deliveries
Revenues | 136.4 | By | |
segment | |||
residential | |||
deliveries | 79.2 | ||
(€ M) | |||
1Q23 | 1Q24 | ||
Higher ASP: | |||
€375k | |||
# units | 331 | 364 |
- BTS: 276 units, ASP of €436k
- BTR: 1 project delivered in 1Q24 in Seville with 88 units and ASP of c.€185k
- Above backlog's ASP due to the delivery of several high-end projects:
Málaga Towers-Living, Venere (Marbella) and Villas de la Vega (Madrid)
Presales coverage 2024E-2026E
(% of expected deliveries)
90
64
42
2024E | 2025E | 2026E |
- High coverage ratio (pre-sales to expected deliveries) provides strong visibility to
MVC's CFs in the following years
ASP | €239k | €375k | Higher gross | ✓ Due to product mix (high ASP) as |
well as successful management of | ||||
margin: | construction costs and price increases |
Gross | 21.5% | 23.7% | 23.7% |
margin
10.
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Disclaimer
Metrovacesa SA published this content on 30 April 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 April 2024 16:57:18 UTC.