Oddo maintains its 'outperform' rating on GTT shares, with an unchanged target price of 155 euros.

Last night, GTT announced the end of direct contracts with Russia, as a consequence of sanctions packages n°8 and n°9 targeting Moscow.

As a reminder, GTT has a direct contract with a Russian shipyard, Zvezda Shipbuilding Complex, for the design of tanks for 15 ice-breaking LNG carriers currently under construction, as well as for the design of 3 GBSs.

As of October 1, sales of 74 ME remained to be recognized for the ice-breaking LNG carriers by 2025, and 12 ME for the GBSs by 2027. This represents a total of 86 ME, or less than 6% of the order book", says GTT.

In this context, Oddo indicates that the 2023 EBITDA estimate should be around 200 ME (vs. 230 ME currently), still showing an increase of more than 30% Y-o-Y.

"For 2024, the impact would be more limited insofar as our current estimates are conservative with regard to the dynamics of orders booked during the 2nd half of 2022. Thus, an update of our estimates should offset the Russian shortfall", concludes the analyst.


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