Oddo BHF believes that growth in Q3 was rather robust at +8%, with a double-digit increase for Maisons Joaillères. The analyst confirms his Outperform recommendation and raises his price target to 135 Swiss francs (from 130 Swiss francs).
' Q3 group sales came to 5,593 ME, i.e. +4% y/y and +8% y/y cc (Q2 was +5%). We were expecting overall growth of +7.2% in Q3 (sales forecast at 5,554 ME), while the Visible Alpha consensus was c.+6%, with sales estimated at 5,493 ME', stresses the research firm. The publication therefore shows a positive surprise of +1%/+2%.
By division, Maisons Joaillères came out at +12% y/y c.i.d. for Q3 to 3,952 ME after +9% in Q2 (we were expecting +9%), Horlogers Spécialisés at +3% to 939 ME after -4% in Q2 (we were expecting +3%).
The analyst has raised his growth forecast for Q4 from +0% to +2% y/y cc with Jewelry Houses at +3% versus +0%, which leads the analyst to raise his March 2024 full-year forecast by +1% for sales and EBIT.
Our forecast scenario for subsequent years changes only marginally. Growth expected at +6.0% cc for March 2025 (Maisons Joaillères at +7%) and +6.6% for March 2026 (Maisons Joaillères at +7.5%). Group EBIT margin expected at 23.8% for March 2025 compared with the March 2024 forecast raised from 23.3% to 23.4%, March 2026 margin expected at 24.8%' adds Oddo BHF.
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Compagnie Financière Richemont SA is a world leader in luxury products. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- jewelry items (42.2%): the brands Cartier (world No. 1 in jewelry), Van Cleef & Arpels, and Giampiero Bodino;
- luxury watches (31.1%): Piaget, A. Lange & Söhne, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Vacheron Constantin, Officine Panerai, IWC Schaffhausen, Baume & Mercier and Roger Dubuis brands;
- other (26.7%): primarily pens, fine leather goods articles and clothing under the following brands: Montblanc, Chloé, Old England, Purdey, and Alfred Dunhill.
Net sales break down by activity between retail distribution (57.6%), wholesale distribution (23.7%) and online distribution (18.7%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: Switzerland (2.4%), the United Kingdom (5.3%), Europe (15.6%), China (28.9%), Japan (6.3%), Asia (11.9%), the States United (19.9%), Americas (2.3%), Middle East and Africa (7.4%).