INR has been having "a mood of its own", reacting to an array of external cues, DBS senior economist Radhika Rao said. She pointed to a combination of dollar index strength, end-of-month onshore dollar demand, swings in the Chinese yuan, a jump in Brent prices and the absence of strong intervention presence, which had strongly dampened INR volatility in recent months.

Demand from exporters and stepped-up intervention could help INR hold its position as a relative outperformer year-to-date versus regional peers, Rao said.


SOUTH KOREA


Trade data on Monday will likely show that the country's export growth eased in March but kept up its momentum thanks to brisk shipments of semiconductors, IT products and vessels.

Exports are forecast to rise 3.8% on year, following a 4.8% gain in February, according to the median forecast of 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The consensus is for imports to drop 9.8% on year in March, resulting in a $3.60 billion trade surplus.

The export recovery led by memory chips will likely continue, with shipments to the U.S. remaining solid and those to China recovering, HI Investment & Securities chief economist Park Sang-hyun said.

The following day, CPI data is tipped to show that headline inflation eased marginally in March but still remains well above the Bank of Korea's 2% target. The median forecast from nine economists polled by The Wall Street Journal is for inflation to moderate to 3.0% from 3.1% in February.

The government's efforts to lower prices for agricultural products likely helped slow inflation in March, but upside risks could continue into April, Barclays economist Bum Ki Son said. The BOK in February held the base rate steady at a 15-year high of 3.50% for a ninth straight time, saying inflation remains sticky in the country.


SINGAPORE


Singapore's March purchasing managers index to be released by the Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management on Tuesday will probably show the manufacturing sector has extended its run of expansion to a seventh straight month. The PMI edged down to 50.6 in February from 50.7 in January, which was in part due to February being shorter and to the Lunar New Year holidays, according to SIPMM executive director Stephen Poh.

Other data on tap include 1Q home prices on Monday and retail sales data for February on Friday. With the central bank's next meeting around the corner, the figures will be looked at to get a feel for whether the economic backdrop is conducive for a potential policy tone shift.

UOB's economists reckon that the door to policy normalization is open but now see a lower probability of that happening in April. They see July as a more likely starting point, in light of still elevated domestic cost pressures.

The UOB Global Economics & Markets Research team expects to get confirmation of the release date for the Monetary Authority of Singapore's next monetary policy statement, which is slated to be no later than April 12. The statement will coincide with the release of advance 1Q GDP estimates.

MAS is likely to loosen policy later than most of its peers in Asia, writes Shivaan Tandon, emerging Asia economist at Capital Economics.

"Singapore was an outlier within Asia in terms of how high inflation spiked and it still has higher core inflation than most other economies in the region. The core rate is likely to remain above target until the start of next year," he said.


(All references to days for Asian events are in local times.)


-- Additional reporting by James Glynn, Kwanwoo Jun, Ronnie Harui, Xiao Xiao, Paul Vieira, Emese Bartha and Miriam Mukuru


Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-28-24 0934ET