Banco de Credito e Inversiones : Bci Conference Call Presentation First Quarter 2023
May 04, 2023 at 11:13 am EDT
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1Q
2023
May 2023
Contents.
Macro Scenario
Key Financial Results
City National Bank of Florida
Key Calls for the US, Peruvian & Chilean Economy
World inflation started to ease. Main Central Banks have raised the monetary policy rate on an unprecedented scale and would finish at 2Q23. Financial conditions have strengthened and some regional banks in the US and banks in Europe had liquidity problems which were solved quickly by the regulators. China showed a better performance in the first part of 2023.
In the US, the Federal Reserve would increase its monetary policy rate one more time and then would keep that level until the end of the year. Inflation is lowering, but there is persistence in core components. GDP will grow around 1% in 2023. In Florida, the unemployment rate is lower than the national average and GDP growth is one of the largest among US states.
In Perú, the political crisis had an impact on economic activity and prices in the last part of 2022 and the first part of 2023. Effects should be transitory and prices would start to ease in the 2Q23. The Central Bank would keep its rate until 3Q23.
In Chile, the economy has shown a greater ability to adapt to the high interest rates. In 2023 we forecast a decrease of 0.5% of the GDP, mainly explained by lower internal demand. Inflation is going down at a slow pace, so the Central Bank would keep its rate at 11.25% until the CPI eased up with more certainty. We expected that the easing cycle would start at 3Q23.
Yield curve didn't show a significant move in the 1Q23. The volatility of the CLP has decreased but it is still above its historical levels.
US GDP grew 1.1% in 1Q23 and unemployment rate keeps at minimum historical levels. Florida figures remains fairly positive.
US & Florida GDP Growth by Quarter
US & Florida Unemployment Rate
(annualized QoQ, %)
(%)
Source: BEA, BLS, Bci Research
Prices are falling but core components looked more sticky. Fed increased the FFR to 5.25% and would keep that level until the end of the year.
US Total & Core CPI
US Fed Funds Rate
(yoy, %)
(%)
Source: BEA, BLS, Federal Reserve, Bci Research
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Bci - Banco de Credito e Inversiones SA published this content on 04 May 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 04 May 2023 15:12:04 UTC.
Banco de Credito e Inversiones is a Chile-based financial institution (the Bank) engaged in the banking sector. The Bank's activities are divided into six segments: Retail banking, which offers current accounts, credit cards, personal loans and insurance products, among others, to individuals; Small and medium-sized enterprises, which provides financing, cash management, factoring and leasing, among others, to microenterprises and companies; Commercial banking, which includes services rendered to corporations, such as real estate and leasing companies; Corporate & Investment Banking Commercial Division, which provides investment solutions to large corporations, financial institutions and high net worth investors; Corporate & Investment Banking Finance Division, which offers sales and trading solutions to institutional investors, and BCI Financial Group, which includes operations of City National Bank of Florida in Chile. The Bank is controlled by Empresas Juan Yarur SAC.