The first good point on the surface is that, after five years in the doldrums, sales are growing again, while operating margins, although scratched, are escaping the jaws of inflation rather well.

The American continent - North and South combined - accounts for four-fifths of operating profit before depreciation. Organic growth is explosive in Latin America, between 15% and 30%, and is offsetting the downward trend in volumes everywhere else, including Asia.

The strategies deployed to deal with this complicated environment are twofold development of the non-alcoholic offer, which currently accounts for less than 3% of revenues, and "premiumization" of the catalog, i.e. moving the offer upmarket, the only segment of the beer market where there is a double growth in prices and volumes.

The investment perimeters are constant over the last five years (2017-2022): an average of $7 billion per year in marketing and advertising, and $5 billion per year in the production tool, i.e. in the "maintenance capex".

However, the generation of cash profits, or "free cash flow", remains on a downward trend, falling from $11 billion in 2017 to $8 billion in 2022 - we have restated stock option remuneration in full here. The free cash flow per share thus decreases from $5.6 in 2017 to $4 in the last fiscal year.

At €57 per share, or $61 in US dollars, AB InBev is trading at roughly x16 its profits, notwithstanding said profits in a downward trend and a still gigantic debt of $80 billion. That is, all things being equal, exactly ten years of cash profits.

The refinancing deadlines are getting dangerously close: $3 billion by 2025, then $20 billion between 2026 and 2029. There is little room to increase the distribution of dividends, which has already been severely eroded since 2018.

Decrease in growth, excessive leverage, dividend yield of 0.9% with no significant prospect of improvement: despite its unparalleled geographic footprint and its quasi-military management, 3G style obliges, it is difficult to justify a possible investment.