Wall Street had not really formed an opinion after Jerome Powell's speech (Wednesday's session had been volatile, from 8pm to 10pm... and heaviness had finally won out.

We had to wait 24 hours for a 'feeling' to emerge, and it was that the overall message was a little more 'dovish' than might have been feared.
The S&P-500 thus advanced by 0.9%, to 5,064 points, and the Nasdaq Composite was back on track with +1.5%) to 15.841 points, boosted by Moderna +12.7% Qualcomm +9.7%, Regeneron +4.3%, Nvidia and Super Micro computer +3.3%, Amazon +3.2%, Apple +2.2%... to which we must add +8% after closing.

Apple reported quarterly earnings of $1.53 per share, 2% above consensus of $1.50, while sales fell by 4.3% to $90.75 billion.... but slightly above the $90 billion expected (lower i-Phone sales in China having been offset by higher 'services' revenues)
The Dow Jones (+0.9%) was driven by Boeing +4.3%, Pfizer +1.9% and... Amazon.

A sign of confidence on the eve of the publication of the NFP, the monthly employment report.

The head of the FED - who must already have a few things to say about April's figures - asserted that job creation was still plentiful, while GDP was "rising rapidly".

But he reassured his listeners a little on Wednesday evening by insinuating that the Fed's next move will 'probably not' be a rate hike (13% of traders thought there might be no rate cut this year, but a hike in January 2025 if inflation picks up).
Even if Jerome Powell believes that the FED's objectives are on track, albeit a little behind schedule on the inflation front, investors need to take on board the fact that the outlook has changed considerably in 4 months, with expectations of 7 rate cuts revised to a single easing (150 basis points away from the initial scenario) which may not take place until the very end of the year (the consensus is no longer even in the majority for September, whereas it was still in the majority in mid-April).

Uncertainty surrounding the monetary easing agenda froze US bond yields at the previous day's levels until late afternoon... then yields eased sharply towards the end of the day: the '10 yr' erased -3.5Pts to 4.59%, the '2 yr' eased -8Pts to 4.8850% and the '30 yr' remained stuck at 4.735% (-1.5Pt basis).

As for US figures, US industrial orders rose by a further 1.6% in March 2024, according to the Commerce Department (following a 1.2% increase in February).

US industrial shipments rose by 0.3% in March compared with the previous month. With inventories virtually unchanged, the inventory-to-delivery ratio remained unchanged at 1.47 month-on-month.

Non-farm productivity rose at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2024, according to the Labor Department's first estimate, driven by a 1.3% rise in total output and a 1% increase in hours worked.

Given this weak rise in productivity, but also a 5% increase in hourly wages, non-agricultural unit labor costs in the US climbed by 4.7% for the first three months of this year... enough to upset the markets, but they want to see the glass half full tonight.

The US trade deficit remained virtually unchanged at $69.4 billion in March, compared with $69.5 billion the previous month (which was revised from an initial estimate of $68.9 billion), according to the Commerce Department.

This 0.1% month-on-month decline in the deficit is the result of a 1.6% drop in US imports of goods and services, to $327 billion, and a 2% contraction in exports, to $257.6 billion.
Weekly jobless claims stagnate once again at 208,000 (and that's 2 months 'standing still').

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