Wall Street closed without direction, with the S&P500 giving up a tiny -0.06% while the Nasdaq Composite gained +0.31%. On average, this led to a slightly bullish bias on the broad indices, but this impression was cancelled out by the Dow Jones, which fell by -0.22%.

Note that the Dow Transport - often considered a good barometer of real activity - fell by -1.5%, a marked divergence from the other indices... and the Russell-2000, which had distinguished itself on the upside the previous day with +0.7%, lost -1.38%.

Investors are therefore taking no initiative (the session was described as 'not very active' at the final bell) 72 hours ahead of the eagerly awaited monthly employment report ('NFP')... even though investors are convinced that job creation will begin to reflect an economic slowdown that will confirm the Fed's intention to 'pivot' and change its rhetoric, as a prelude to a possible rate cut as early as March 2024.

The day's figures were fairly neutral: growth in the US tertiary sector rose more than expected in November, according to the ISM index, which came in at 52.7, compared with 51.8 in October, when economists were expecting a smaller increase.

With no real link to these figures, the bond market experienced a wave of euphoria, with dizzying spreads (-10 basis points on the 10-year, which fell to 4.16%, and -9 bp on the 5-year, to 4.15%) reflecting panic buying by investors who may be "in the wrong direction".

Caution might have prevailed on the eve of the ADP private sector employment survey, but buyers of Treasuries are convinced that hiring will begin to reflect an economic slowdown that will reinforce the Fed's intention to 'pivot'.

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