Yves Sanquer

Currencies: Sellers are relentless on the CHF

With the Swiss National Bank's interest-rate cut, the Swiss currency is performing poorly. It even has the luxury of trailing the Japanese yen in terms of negative relative performance against the dollar, the euro, sterling, the Canadian dollar and Russia. And that's just the beginning!

April 29, 2024 at 09:46 am EDT

Rates: To infinity and beyond

Thanks Buzz. The breach of the 4.60% mark on the US 10-year yield puts paid to our long-term scenario of an intermediate recovery before a new downward salvo. It's time to update all this and take recent developments into account.

April 29, 2024 at 05:59 am EDT

Currencies: It'll be alright, it'll be alright...

Did you say "revolution"? Not at all. The dollar is still taking advantage of the postponement of the first rate cuts to reign supreme, whether against European or Asian currencies. The revolution will have to wait a little longer.

April 23, 2024 at 05:10 am EDT

Interest rates: Want more?

Bond yields are approaching critical levels, which it would be wise not to overshoot if you want to keep the equity markets on track. In the meantime, if you want to know when the Fed will cut rates, take a look at the US 2-year.

April 23, 2024 at 05:08 am EDT

Currencies: The euro pays the price

At last Thursday's ECB meeting, Christine Lagarde clearly raised the scenario of a possible interest rate cut as early as June, at the risk of weighing on the performance of the European currency.

April 15, 2024 at 10:07 am EDT

Rate: What a difference a week makes

The canary isn't dead yet, but he's already in respiratory distress. Doctor Benton, do we intubate or wait?

April 15, 2024 at 05:54 am EDT

Rates: A lethal lack of harmony?

Last week, central bankers, especially in the US, made a series of outbursts that somewhat blurred their rhetoric and sowed doubts in the minds of investors. The high level of inflation now seems (less) compatible with an immediate cut in interest rates, even if this remains the general trajectory. To put it plainly, there's no guarantee of a first rate cut in June.

April 08, 2024 at 05:03 am EDT

Rates: Managing expectations

We were eagerly awaiting Friday to get the latest data about US inflation.

April 02, 2024 at 11:36 am EDT

Currencies: Would you like some more carry?

The end of the quarter is always a good time to take stock of what went well and what needs to be improved. New opportunities are sure to emerge over the next few weeks, so let's take a look at what macro can bring us.

April 02, 2024 at 11:34 am EDT

Currencies: The Swiss franc takes a beating

The Swiss National Bank's surprise decision to cut its key rates by 25 basis points did not go unnoticed. In the wake of this decision, which was made possible by the effectiveness of the Bank's anti-inflation measures, the Swiss franc fell back against all G10 currencies.

March 25, 2024 at 10:55 am EDT

Interest rates: Closing the gap!

At the end of a busy week of central bank meetings of all kinds, the main thing to remember is that the US Federal Reserve played the tune expected by most investors. The program includes a first rate cut in June. And what about inflation? Nothing alarming, for the moment.

March 25, 2024 at 06:59 am EDT

Interest rates: Knock-knock, it's inflation!

Intoxicated by the rise in equity markets and promises of future rate cuts, we thought we'd done away with inflation for good. But then, like a hiccup, inflation came back to bite investors in the ass. A momentary scare?

March 19, 2024 at 11:09 am EDT

Currencies: Focus on the Renminbi

After reading so many articles on the numerous attempts by the authorities to revive the Chinese economy, it seemed only fitting to take a closer look at the currency. But why? If you want to invest locally, you first need to own local currency. This is why forex is nicknamed "fast money", and primarily reflects investors' interest (or lack of it) in a specific geographical area. At least in theory.

March 19, 2024 at 10:47 am EDT

Currencies: Dollar- Clouds on the horizon

It won't be long before the prospect of an interest rate cut in the United States starts to stir the pot. And in this game, the dollar no longer enjoys major fundamental support.

March 11, 2024 at 10:50 am EDT

Rates: Thanks Jerome!

Jerome Powell's speech to the U.S. Senate removed any doubt as to what to do next. The ECB followed suit, suggesting that inflation was on the right track. Markets applauded as bond yields eased.

March 11, 2024 at 10:37 am EDT

Forex: Descent into Hell

No, we're not here to tell you about Orpheus' epic journey to retrieve his beloved Eurydice from the Underworld. But as we mentioned last week, the yen has investors unanimously against it. After all, you can take almost any other G10 currency and realize that it does better than the Japanese one. When can we expect a return to earth?

March 04, 2024 at 10:13 am EST

Rates : One indicator chases another

Inflation is a bit like investment: it's not always easy to follow through. As proof of this, last Thursday's publication of the US Household Personal Spending Index (PCE) did not confirm the information previously provided by the CPI. So, what does inflation do?

March 04, 2024 at 10:03 am EST

Currencies: The end of consolidation is imminent for the USDZAR

Despite an attractive yield differential, the South African rand is unable to counterbalance the US dollar. There's no shortage of explanations for this: lower annual growth and a much higher unemployment rate and inflation in South Africa than in the United States. What follows does not look much better, and should further benefit the greenback.

February 26, 2024 at 05:45 am EST

Currencies: New opportunity for the Swiss franc

The Swiss franc is traditionally regarded as a safe haven. In the current context of soaring equity indices, it is therefore logical to expect it to underperform the other main currencies. But does this call into question the underlying trend? Let's take a look at the EURCHF.

February 19, 2024 at 10:16 am EST

Interest rates: The first cracks start to appear

The stock market rally underway since October was fueled not only by the productivity gains generated by AI, but also by the return of inflation towards 2%. While the first pillar is still holding firm, the second is beginning to show its first cracks.

February 19, 2024 at 05:42 am EST

Currencies: Caution on EURHUF

Several months ago, we drew your attention to the carry trade opportunities offered by certain currencies. The Mexican peso, Turkish lira and Hungarian forint fall into this category. This week, we're taking stock of the situation, as the going gets a little tougher.

February 12, 2024 at 10:00 am EST