1Q 2024 Earnings Investor Presentation

April 30, 2024

The Timken Company

Agenda

2

Introduction

Meghan Elmblad

Interim Manager of Investor Relations

Overview and

Rich Kyle

Business Update

President and Chief Executive Officer

Financial Review

Phil Fracassa

Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Q&A

Question and Answer Session

Forward-Looking Statements Safe Harbor and Non-GAAP Financial Information

3

Certain statements in this presentation (including statements regarding the company's forecasts, beliefs, estimates and expectations) that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In particular, the statements related to Timken's plans, outlook, future financial performance, targets, projected sales, cash flows, liquidity, cost reduction measures and expectations regarding the future financial performance of the company, including the information under the headings, "Initial Organic Growth Outlook - FY 2024 By Market/Sector", "2024 Outlook", "Looking Ahead", "1Q-24 Financial Comparison - Net Income & Diluted EPS", "Cash Flow, Leverage & Capital Allocation", and "Long-Term Financial Goals*" are forward-looking.

The Company cautions that actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied in forward-looking statements due to a variety of important factors, including: the finalization of the Company's financial statements for the first quarter of 2024; the Company's ability to respond to the changes in its end markets that could affect demand for the Company's products or services; unanticipated changes in business relationships with customers or their purchases from the Company; changes in the financial health of the Company's customers, which may have an impact on the Company's revenues, earnings and impairment charges; logistical issues associated with port closures or congestion, delays or increased costs; the impact of changes to the Company's accounting methods; political risks associated with government instability; recent world events that have increased the risks posed by international trade disputes, tariffs, sanctions and hostilities; strained geopolitical relations between countries in which we have significant operations; weakness in global or regional general economic conditions and capital markets (as a result of financial stress affecting the banking system or otherwise); the impact of inflation on employee expenses, shipping costs, raw material costs, energy and fuel prices, and other production costs; the Company's ability to satisfy its obligations under its debt agreements and renew or refinance borrowings on favorable terms in a high interest rate environment; fluctuations in currency valuations; changes in the expected costs associated with product warranty claims; the ability to achieve satisfactory operating results in the integration of acquired companies, including realizing any accretion, synergies, and expected cashflow generation within expected timeframes or at all; fluctuations in customer demand; the Company's ability to effectively adjust prices for its products in response to changing dynamics; the impact on the Company's pension obligations and assets due to changes in interest rates, investment performance and other tactics designed to reduce risk; the introduction of new disruptive technologies; unplanned plant shutdowns; the effects of government-imposed restrictions, commercial requirements, and Company goals associated with climate change and emissions or other sustainability initiatives; unanticipated litigation, claims, investigations, remediation, or assessments; changes in the global regulatory landscape; restrictions on the use of, or claims or remediation associated with, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances; the Company's ability to maintain positive relations with unions and works councils; the Company's ability to compete for skilled labor and to attract, retain and develop management, other key employees, and skilled personnel at all levels of the organization; negative impacts to the Company's operations or financial position as a result of pandemics, epidemics, or other public health concerns and associated governmental measures; and the Company's ability to complete and achieve the benefits of announced plans, programs, initiatives, acquisitions and capital investments. Additional factors are discussed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2023, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8- K. Except as required by the federal securities laws, the Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

This presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the rules and regulations of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided in the Appendix to this presentation.

Overview and Business Update

Rich Kyle

President and

Chief Executive Officer

The Timken Company

1Q 2024 Performance Highlights

5

Sales of $1.19 billion in 1Q-24, down 5.7% from last year's record level

  • Revenue down 9.2% organically
    • Driven by lower demand across most sectors, including a significant decline in renewable energy
    • Continued positive price realization
    • Revenue in the quarter modestly exceeded our expectations
  • Acquisitions (net) contributed 4%, while currency was negative 0.5% on the top line

Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.7% compared to 21.0% in prior year

  • Strong margin performance in the quarter, as improved execution and positive price-cost largely mitigated the impact of lower YOY organic revenue
  • Engineered Bearings and Industrial Motion segments each delivered over 20% adjusted EBITDA margins

Adjusted EPS of $1.77, down from $2.09 in the prior-year period Paid 407th consecutive quarterly dividend in March

Ended the 1st quarter with net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA (TTM) at 2.1x

Announced CEO succession plan, with the naming of industry veteran Tarak Mehta as next president & CEO

See appendix for reconciliations of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margins, net debt, the ratio of net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

Organic Growth Outlook - FY 2024 By Market/Sector

6

(Market/Sector Placement Reflects Mid-Point of Guidance)

NEGATIVE

(down HSD+)

Off-Highway

Renewable Energy

-------------------

(down MSD)

Automation

General Industrial

Heavy Industries

NEUTRAL

(flat to +/- LSD)

Auto/Truck

Ind. Distribution

Marine

Rail

Services

-------------------

(up MSD)

---

POSITIVE (up HSD+)

Aerospace

Current outlook is for FY organic revenue to be down ~5% at mid-point

  • Guidance implies range of -4% to -6%
  • Up 150bps from prior outlook (down 6.5% at midpoint) - reflects improvement across multiple sectors with significantly weaker demand in renewable energy
  • Expectations for continued uncertainty across global industrial markets

LSD = low-single digit percentage change MSD = mid-single digit percentage change HSD = high-single digit percentage change

Note: Auto/Truck includes Auto OE, Heavy Truck OE and aftermarket

See next slide for reconciliation of organic revenue to its most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.

2024 Outlook

7

Prior Outlook

Current Outlook

(Feb. 5, 2024)

(Apr 30, 2024)

Net Sales

-2.5% to

-2% to

-4.5%

-4%

Adjusted EPS

$5.80 to

$6.00 to

$6.20

$6.30

Free Cash Flow

~$425M

~$425M

Current Outlook: Full Year 2024 vs. 2023

Sales down 3% at mid-point (organic: -5%; M&A: +2.5%; FX: -0.5%)

  • Organic outlook reflects lower volumes and slightly higher pricing
    • Current organic outlook is up 150bps from prior
  • M&A includes impact from 2023 acquisitions (net of divestitures)
  • Currency now expected to be a headwind

Adj. EBITDA margins in the high-18's% range for FY-24

  • Reflects impact of lower volume and continued cost inflation, offset partially by favorable price/mix, improved execution and cost actions
  • Net positive price-cost outlook for FY-24
  • Favorable impact from acquisitions (net); currency unfavorable

Adj. EPS $6.15 at mid-point

  • Assumes adjusted tax rate of ~27% and flattish YOY interest expense (before incremental M&A/buybacks)

Free cash flow expected to be around ~$425M

  • Driven by improved working capital and lower cash taxes
  • Represents >110% of FY GAAP net income at mid-point

EPS outlook does not include the impact of any potential future mark-to-market pension remeasurement adjustments or other unplanned special items. See appendix for reconciliations of adjusted EPS and free cash flow to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures.

Free cash flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities minus capital expenditures.

Looking Ahead

8

Raising 2024 Outlook

  • Increased FY revenue outlook by 50bps at midpoint from February
    • Organic outlook improved by 150bps - multiple sectors up, renewable energy down
    • Currency worse by 100bps, now a headwind (-0.5%) for the year; net M&A (+2.5%) unchanged
    • Improved execution and cost-control actions to drive stronger margin performance
    • Higher EPS versus prior guide (up $0.15/share at midpoint) despite higher tax rate
  • Continue to integrate recent acquisitions and drive synergies
  • Advance strategic initiatives (outgrowth, product vitality, footprint, etc.)

Capital Allocation

  • Strong balance sheet at March 31st, with significant FCF generation expected over ROY
  • Continue balanced and disciplined approach to capital allocation
    • CapEx at ~4% of sales to support growth and margin enhancement
    • Continued emphasis on M&A to scale in attractive sectors and enhance product portfolio
    • Buyback remains an attractive option as well

Plan for CEO succession in September

Financial

Performance

Phil Fracassa

Executive Vice President

and Chief Financial Officer

The Timken Company

1Q 2024 Financial Overview

10

Net Sales ($M)

$1,263

$1,190

1Q-23

1Q-24

Adjusted EBITDA ($M)

$266

$246

21.0%

20.7%

1Q-23

1Q-24

Earnings Per Share

REPORTED (GAAP)

ADJUSTED

$2.09

$1.67

$1.77

$1.46

1Q-23

1Q-24

1Q-23

1Q-24

Sales of $1.19 billion, down 5.7% from 1Q-23

  • Decline driven by lower demand, including a significant decline in renewable energy, and unfavorable foreign currency translation, partially offset by the favorable impact of acquisitions (net) and favorable pricing

Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.7%, down 30 bps from 1Q-23

  • Slight YOY margin contraction driven mainly by impact of lower volume and unfavorable currency, partially offset by favorable price-cost

First quarter adjusted EPS of $1.77 per diluted share

  • Adjusted ROIC (TTM) of 13.1%; returns well above the cost of capital

See appendix for reconciliations of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted return on invested capital ("ROIC") and adjusted EPS to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. Adjusted ROIC is defined as adjusted net operating profit after taxes ("ANOPAT") divided by average invested capital.

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Disclaimer

The Timken Co. published this content on 30 April 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 April 2024 11:03:42 UTC.