SINTERCAST AB Equity Research - 18 October 2023 11:12 CEST
SinterCast
Record pre-released Q3 figures
- Expect a great Q3e: sales SEK 44m, up 46% y-o-y; 46% EBIT margin
- We raise '23e-'24e EBIT 7-4% on announced financial targets
- Hiring of Operations Director establishes in-house succession path
Q3e: We expect a great quarter
For Q3 we estimate revenue of SEK 43.5m, up 46% y-o-y (43% org.), as annualised engine equivalents reached a record 4.2m (3.6m), and sampling cup sales increased to 63k (45k), according to pre-released figures. Following the retirement of two employees in H1 and a one-off expense in Q2 we expect profitability to increase, and estimate EBIT of SEK 19.9m (13.0m) for Q3, resulting in a margin of 46% (44%). We believe this will convert into EPS of SEK 2.80 (1.57).
Financial targets announced, we increase EBIT by 7-4%
SinterCast announced financial targetsincluding a double-digit CAGR of series production volume and revenue through 2030, the ambition to continuously improve the gross margin beyond the current level of 70%, and an increase of the EBIT margin from the current 30% beyond 40% within the coming five years. This will be driven by inflation-adjusted opex that is forecast by management to be lower in five years than in 2023. The company also aims to extend its current track record of 13 years of increasing dividends to 25 years, and for its technology to contribute to an additional 50m tonnes of CO2 savings within five years. We believe these targets are achievable, and raise our '23e-'25e EBIT by 7-4%, as we incorporate a significant portion of the company's opex reduction forecast into our estimates, predicting a 40% EBIT margin in '25e. Simultaneously, we reduce '24e-'25e sales by 2%, as we incorporate a somewhat greater effect than previously from the programme reaching end-of-life in H2'24.
Hires Operations Director, succession plan in place
SinterCast also announced the hiring of Dr. Vítor Anjos as Operations Director, establishing an in-house path for the eventual succession of the current CEO. We find it positive that the company is making plans for a smooth transition.
Analyst(s): henric.hintze@abgsc.se, +46 8 566 294 89 adrian.gilani@abgsc.se, +46 8 566 286 92
SEKm | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e |
Sales | 107 | 119 | 141 | 156 | 171 |
EBITDA | 35 | 35 | 50 | 63 | 73 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 32.8 | 29.5 | 35.7 | 40.7 | 42.6 |
EBIT adj. | 31 | 36 | 48 | 59 | 68 |
EBIT adj. margin (%) | 29.2 | 30.0 | 34.0 | 37.9 | 40.0 |
Pretax profit | 29 | 30 | 46 | 59 | 68 |
EPS | 4.64 | 4.70 | 6.48 | 8.64 | 9.91 |
EPS adj. | 4.64 | 5.45 | 6.69 | 8.64 | 9.91 |
Sales growth (%) | 12.6 | 10.5 | 18.7 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
EPS growth (%) | 48.5 | 1.2 | 38.0 | 33.3 | 14.6 |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data
Reason: Preview of results
Commissioned research
Not rated
Capital Goods
Estimate changes (%)
2023e | 2024e | 2025e | |
Sales | 2.6 | -2.2 | -1.9 |
EBIT | 7.3 | 3.7 | 6.5 |
EPS | 7.3 | 1.8 | 4.7 |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier |
SINT-SE/SINT SS
Share price (SEK) | 18/10/2023 | 101.50 |
Fair value range | 100.0-160.0 | |
MCap (SEKm) | 720 | |
MCap (EURm) | 62 | |
No. of shares (m) | 7.1 | |
Free float (%) | 64.7 | |
Av. daily volume (k) | 3 |
Next event | Q3 Report 8 November 2023 |
Performance | |
140.00 | |
130.00 | |
120.00 | |
110.00 | |
100.00 | |
90.00 | |
Dec-22Feb-23Apr-23Jun-23Aug-23Oct-23 | |
SinterCast | OMX Stockholm All Share Index |
2023e | 2024e | 2025e | |
P/E (x) | 15.7 | 11.7 | 10.2 |
P/E adj. (x) | 15.2 | 11.7 | 10.2 |
P/BVPS (x) | 6.05 | 5.37 | 5.00 |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 13.9 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
EV/EBIT adj. (x) | 14.6 | 11.6 | 10.0 |
EV/sales (x) | 4.95 | 4.38 | 3.98 |
ROE adj. (%) | 41.1 | 48.5 | 50.5 |
Dividend yield (%) | 6.4 | 8.4 | 9.4 |
FCF yield (%) | 6.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) | 6.8 | 8.3 | 8.9 |
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
Le. adj. ND/EBITDA (x) | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 |
Disclosures and analyst certifications are located on pages 8-9 of this report.
This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.
SinterCast
Company description
SinterCast is a leading supplier of online process control technology and know-how for the reliable high-volume production of Compacted Graphite Iron (CGI). The material is stronger than traditional iron, which enables downsizing, increased thermal and mechanical loading, and increased engine performance. The technology is primarily used in diesel engines for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pickups as well as commercial vehicles and offroad equipment.
Risks
Automotive demand, and more specifically demand for larger passenger vehicles such as SUVs and pick-up trucks with diesel engines. Regulation relating to fossil fuels and diesel in particular poses risks to the business model.
Annualised engine eqs and sampling cups… | …correlate well with sales and EBIT margin |
>100% EBIT to net profit conversion… | …and ~100% of net profit paid out in dividends | ||||||||||||||
18 October 2023 | ABG Sundal Collier | 2 |
SinterCast
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates
Detailed estimates, annual
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates, company data
18 October 2023 | ABG Sundal Collier | 3 |
SinterCast
Detailed estimates, quarterly
Source: ABG Sundal Collier estimates, company data
18 October 2023 | ABG Sundal Collier | 4 |
SinterCast
Income Statement (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | ||
Sales | 75 | 66 | 88 | 117 | 95 | 107 | 119 | 141 | 156 | 171 | ||
COGS | -17 | -15 | -19 | -28 | -27 | -31 | -32 | -38 | -42 | -46 | ||
Gross profit | 59 | 51 | 69 | 89 | 68 | 76 | 87 | 103 | 114 | 125 | ||
Other operating items | -31 | -33 | -37 | -46 | -43 | -41 | -52 | -52 | -50 | -52 | ||
EBITDA | 27 | 18 | 32 | 43 | 25 | 35 | 35 | 50 | 63 | 73 | ||
Depreciation and amortisation | -1 | 0 | -2 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -5 | ||
of which leasing depreciation | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -0 | -1 | -1 | ||
EBITA | 26 | 18 | 29 | 40 | 22 | 31 | 31 | 46 | 59 | 68 | ||
EO Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -2 | 0 | 0 | ||
Impairment and PPA amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
EBIT | 26 | 18 | 29 | 40 | 22 | 31 | 31 | 46 | 59 | 68 | ||
Net financial items | -1 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 1 | -2 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -1 | ||
Pretax profit | 26 | 18 | 29 | 40 | 22 | 29 | 30 | 46 | 59 | 68 | ||
Tax | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -0 | 4 | 3 | -0 | 3 | 3 | ||
Net profit | 27 | 19 | 33 | 48 | 22 | 33 | 33 | 46 | 61 | 70 | ||
Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Net profit discontinued | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Net profit to shareholders | 27 | 19 | 33 | 48 | 22 | 33 | 33 | 46 | 61 | 70 | ||
EPS | 3.78 | 2.62 | 4.61 | 6.80 | 3.12 | 4.64 | 4.70 | 6.48 | 8.64 | 9.91 | ||
EPS adj. | 3.78 | 2.62 | 4.61 | 7.63 | 3.04 | 4.64 | 5.45 | 6.69 | 8.64 | 9.91 | ||
Total extraordinary items after tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | 1 | 0 | -5 | -1 | 0 | 0 | ||
Leasing payments | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||
Tax rate (%) | -3.9 | -5.1 | -11.2 | -20.8 | 0.4 | -13.4 | -9.5 | 0.2 | -4.3 | -3.7 | ||
Gross margin (%) | 78.0 | 77.1 | 78.6 | 76.4 | 71.6 | 70.9 | 73.1 | 72.9 | 73.0 | 73.0 | ||
EBITDA margin (%) | 36.3 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 37.2 | 26.6 | 32.8 | 29.5 | 35.7 | 40.7 | 42.6 | ||
EBITA margin (%) | 35.0 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 34.4 | 22.7 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 32.9 | 37.9 | 40.0 | ||
EBIT margin (%) | 35.0 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 34.4 | 22.7 | 29.2 | 25.9 | 32.9 | 37.9 | 40.0 | ||
Pre-tax margin (%) | 34.2 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 34.2 | 23.3 | 27.0 | 25.6 | 32.7 | 37.6 | 39.7 | ||
Net margin (%) | 35.5 | 28.4 | 37.3 | 41.4 | 23.2 | 30.6 | 28.1 | 32.6 | 39.2 | 41.1 | ||
Growth Rates y-o-y | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
Sales growth (%) | 4.1 | -13.0 | 33.7 | 32.8 | -18.1 | 12.6 | 10.5 | 18.7 | 10.8 | 9.4 | ||
EBITDA growth (%) | 29.9 | -35.4 | 78.5 | 37.0 | -41.5 | 38.9 | -0.6 | 43.9 | 26.0 | 14.6 | ||
EBITA growth (%) | 30.0 | -33.0 | 66.1 | 36.4 | -46.0 | 45.0 | -2.2 | 51.0 | 27.6 | 15.3 | ||
EBIT growth (%) | 30.0 | -33.0 | 66.1 | 36.4 | -46.0 | 45.0 | -2.2 | 51.0 | 27.6 | 15.3 | ||
Net profit growth (%) | 4.3 | -30.6 | 75.8 | 47.4 | -54.0 | 48.5 | 1.2 | 38.0 | 33.3 | 14.6 | ||
EPS growth (%) | 4.3 | -30.5 | 75.8 | 47.4 | -54.0 | 48.5 | 1.2 | 38.0 | 33.3 | 14.6 | ||
Profitability | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
ROE (%) | 28.4 | 20.5 | 35.4 | 45.7 | 20.1 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 39.8 | 48.5 | 50.5 | ||
ROE adj. (%) | 28.4 | 20.5 | 35.4 | 51.3 | 19.5 | 29.6 | 34.4 | 41.1 | 48.5 | 50.5 | ||
ROCE (%) | 27.9 | 19.5 | 31.8 | 37.5 | 20.1 | 27.3 | 26.5 | 39.4 | 46.2 | 48.5 | ||
ROCE adj. (%) | 27.9 | 19.5 | 31.8 | 42.1 | 18.5 | 27.3 | 30.7 | 40.7 | 46.2 | 48.5 | ||
ROIC (%) | 57.3 | 35.2 | 53.9 | 65.8 | 26.6 | 42.9 | 36.3 | 46.9 | 62.8 | 69.4 | ||
ROIC adj. (%) | 57.3 | 35.2 | 53.9 | 73.9 | 25.9 | 42.9 | 42.1 | 48.4 | 62.8 | 69.4 | ||
Adj. earnings numbers | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||
EBITDA adj. | 27 | 18 | 32 | 48 | 25 | 35 | 40 | 52 | 63 | 73 | ||
EBITDA adj. margin (%) | 36.3 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 41.4 | 25.9 | 32.8 | 33.6 | 36.8 | 40.7 | 42.6 | ||
EBITDA lease adj. | 27 | 18 | 32 | 47 | 24 | 35 | 38 | 51 | 62 | 71 | ||
EBITDA lease adj. margin (%) | 36.3 | 27.0 | 36.0 | 40.5 | 24.8 | 32.1 | 32.3 | 36.0 | 39.8 | 41.8 | ||
EBITA adj. | 26 | 18 | 29 | 45 | 21 | 31 | 36 | 48 | 59 | 68 | ||
EBITA adj. margin (%) | 35.0 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 38.6 | 22.1 | 29.2 | 30.0 | 34.0 | 37.9 | 40.0 | ||
EBIT adj. | 26 | 18 | 29 | 45 | 21 | 31 | 36 | 48 | 59 | 68 | ||
EBIT adj. margin (%) | 35.0 | 27.0 | 33.5 | 38.6 | 22.1 | 29.2 | 30.0 | 34.0 | 37.9 | 40.0 | ||
Pretax profit Adj. | 26 | 18 | 29 | 45 | 22 | 29 | 35 | 48 | 59 | 68 | ||
Net profit Adj. | 27 | 19 | 33 | 54 | 22 | 33 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 70 | ||
Net profit to shareholders adj. | 27 | 19 | 33 | 54 | 22 | 33 | 39 | 47 | 61 | 70 | ||
Net adj. margin (%) | 35.5 | 28.4 | 37.3 | 46.5 | 22.6 | 30.6 | 32.6 | 33.7 | 39.2 | 41.1 | ||
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data | ||||||||||||
Cash Flow (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e |
EBITDA | 27 | 18 | 32 | 43 | 25 | 35 | 35 |
Net financial items | -1 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 1 | -2 | -0 |
Paid tax | 0 | -0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | 0 | -0 |
Non-cash items | -1 | 1 | 0 | -0 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
Cash flow before change in WC | 26 | 19 | 32 | 43 | 26 | 31 | 36 |
Change in working capital | -1 | -2 | -7 | -5 | 1 | 3 | -10 |
50 | 63 | 73 |
-0 | -0 | -1 |
0 | 0 | 0 |
0 | 0 | 0 |
50 | 63 | 72 |
5 | 1 | -3 |
18 October 2023 | ABG Sundal Collier | 5 |
SinterCast
Cash Flow (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | |
Operating cash flow | 25 | 17 | 25 | 38 | 28 | 33 | 25 | 55 | 64 | 69 | |
Capex tangible fixed assets | -1 | -0 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -4 | -2 | -2 | |
Capex intangible fixed assets | -2 | -3 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -2 | |
Acquisitions and Disposals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Free cash flow | 22 | 13 | 22 | 37 | 25 | 30 | 24 | 50 | 61 | 66 | |
Dividend paid | -25 | -28 | -19 | -35 | -25 | -28 | -36 | -39 | -46 | -60 | |
Share issues and buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Leasing liability amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | |
Other non-cash items | 0 | 0 | -0 | -3 | -1 | -1 | -3 | -0 | 0 | -0 | |
Balance Sheet (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | |
Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Other intangible assets | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
Tangible fixed assets | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 7 | |
Right-of-use asset | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
Total other fixed assets | 32 | 33 | 36 | 45 | 50 | 53 | 52 | 52 | 54 | 57 | |
Fixed assets | 39 | 42 | 46 | 56 | 63 | 65 | 62 | 64 | 67 | 70 | |
Inventories | 4 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 17 | |
Receivables | 19 | 18 | 25 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 37 | 35 | 39 | 43 | |
Other current assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Cash and liquid assets | 45 | 30 | 33 | 33 | 26 | 27 | 14 | 22 | 36 | 40 | |
Total assets | 108 | 95 | 110 | 128 | 128 | 131 | 131 | 140 | 158 | 170 | |
Shareholders equity | 96 | 86 | 99 | 112 | 109 | 113 | 112 | 119 | 134 | 144 | |
Minority | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Total equity | 96 | 86 | 99 | 112 | 109 | 113 | 112 | 119 | 134 | 144 | |
Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Pension debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Leasing liability | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
Total other long-term liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Accounts payable | 12 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 20 | 22 | 24 | |
Other current liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Total liabilities and equity | 108 | 95 | 110 | 128 | 128 | 131 | 131 | 140 | 158 | 170 | |
Net IB debt | -45 | -31 | -33 | -31 | -28 | -28 | -12 | -22 | -35 | -39 | |
Net IB debt excl. pension debt | -45 | -31 | -33 | -31 | -28 | -28 | -12 | -22 | -35 | -39 | |
Net IB debt excl. leasing | -45 | -31 | -33 | -33 | -32 | -32 | -15 | -23 | -37 | -41 | |
Capital employed | 96 | 86 | 99 | 115 | 113 | 117 | 115 | 120 | 136 | 146 | |
Capital invested | 51 | 55 | 66 | 81 | 81 | 85 | 100 | 97 | 99 | 105 | |
Working capital | 12 | 14 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 39 | 34 | 33 | 36 | |
EV breakdown | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Market cap. diluted (m) | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | |
Net IB debt adj. | -45 | -31 | -33 | -31 | -28 | -28 | -12 | -22 | -35 | -39 | |
Market value of minority | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Reversal of shares and | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
participations | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Reversal of conv. debt assumed | |||||||||||
equity | 675 | 689 | 686 | 689 | 692 | 692 | 708 | 698 | 685 | 681 | |
EV | |||||||||||
Total assets turnover (%) | 70.5 | 64.9 | 85.6 | 98.0 | 74.7 | 82.9 | 90.6 | 104.1 | 104.9 | 104.4 | |
Working capital/sales (%) | 14.1 | 19.3 | 19.6 | 20.0 | 26.0 | 22.7 | 26.7 | 25.7 | 21.3 | 20.1 | |
Financial risk and debt service | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Net debt/equity (%) | -47.3 | -35.5 | -33.5 | -27.3 | -25.6 | -24.6 | -10.6 | -18.1 | -26.1 | -27.2 | |
Net debt / market cap (%) | -6.3 | -4.2 | -4.6 | -4.2 | -3.9 | -3.9 | -1.7 | -3.0 | -4.9 | -5.4 | |
Equity ratio (%) | 89.1 | 90.6 | 90.0 | 87.5 | 85.2 | 86.2 | 85.7 | 84.8 | 85.1 | 85.0 | |
Net IB debt adj. / equity (%) | -47.3 | -35.5 | -33.5 | -27.3 | -25.6 | -24.6 | -10.6 | -18.1 | -26.1 | -27.2 | |
Current ratio | 5.87 | 5.91 | 5.86 | 5.48 | 4.42 | 4.68 | 4.38 | 3.85 | 4.14 | 4.17 | |
EBITDA/net interest | 45.7 | -- | -- | 216.5 | 42.3 | 14.7 | 116.7 | 167.9 | 158.7 | 145.5 | |
Net IB debt/EBITDA (x) | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.5 | |
Net IB debt/EBITDA lease adj. (x) | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.1 | -0.7 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -0.6 | |
Interest coverage | 44.0 | -- | -- | 200.5 | 36.1 | 13.1 | 102.3 | 154.5 | 147.9 | 136.5 | |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data | |||||||||||
Share Data (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e |
Actual shares outstanding | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Actual shares outstanding (avg) | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
7 | 7 | 7 |
7 | 7 | 7 |
18 October 2023 | ABG Sundal Collier | 6 |
SinterCast
Share Data (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | |
All additional shares | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Issue month | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
Assumed dil. of shares from conv. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
As. dil. of shares from conv. (avg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Conv. debt not assumed as equity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
No. of warrants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Market value per warrant | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Dilution from warrants | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Issue factor | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
Actual dividend per share | 4.00 | 2.75 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | |
Reported earnings per share | 3.78 | 2.62 | 4.61 | 6.80 | 3.12 | 4.64 | 4.70 | 6.48 | 8.64 | 9.91 | |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data |
Valuation and Ratios (SEKm) | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | |
Shares outstanding adj. | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
Diluted shares adj. | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
EPS | 3.78 | 2.62 | 4.61 | 6.80 | 3.12 | 4.64 | 4.70 | 6.48 | 8.64 | 9.91 | |
Dividend per share | 4.00 | 2.75 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 6.50 | 8.50 | 9.50 | |
EPS adj. | 3.78 | 2.62 | 4.61 | 7.63 | 3.04 | 4.64 | 5.45 | 6.69 | 8.64 | 9.91 | |
BVPS | 13.50 | 12.10 | 13.99 | 15.75 | 15.35 | 15.97 | 15.78 | 16.77 | 18.91 | 20.31 | |
BVPS adj. | 12.77 | 11.02 | 12.92 | 14.81 | 14.47 | 15.13 | 15.12 | 16.39 | 18.69 | 20.25 | |
Net IB debt/share | -6.38 | -4.30 | -4.68 | -4.30 | -3.94 | -3.93 | -1.68 | -3.04 | -4.94 | -5.52 | |
Share price | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | 101.50 | |
Market cap. (m) | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | 720 | |
Valuation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
P/E (x) | 26.9 | 38.7 | 22.0 | 14.9 | 32.5 | 21.9 | 21.6 | 15.7 | 11.7 | 10.2 | |
EV/sales (x) | 8.95 | 10.51 | 7.83 | 5.92 | 7.25 | 6.44 | 5.96 | 4.95 | 4.38 | 3.98 | |
EV/EBITDA (x) | 24.6 | 38.9 | 21.7 | 15.9 | 27.3 | 19.7 | 20.2 | 13.9 | 10.8 | 9.4 | |
EV/EBITA (x) | 25.6 | 38.9 | 23.3 | 17.2 | 32.0 | 22.0 | 23.1 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 10.0 | |
EV/EBIT (x) | 25.6 | 38.9 | 23.3 | 17.2 | 32.0 | 22.0 | 23.1 | 15.1 | 11.6 | 10.0 | |
Dividend yield (%) | 3.9 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 9.4 | |
FCF yield (%) | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 9.1 | |
Le. adj. FCF yld. (%) | 3.1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 8.9 | |
P/BVPS (x) | 7.52 | 8.39 | 7.25 | 6.44 | 6.61 | 6.36 | 6.43 | 6.05 | 5.37 | 5.00 | |
P/BVPS adj. (x) | 7.95 | 9.21 | 7.86 | 6.85 | 7.01 | 6.71 | 6.71 | 6.19 | 5.43 | 5.01 | |
P/E adj. (x) | 26.9 | 38.7 | 22.0 | 13.3 | 33.4 | 21.9 | 18.6 | 15.2 | 11.7 | 10.2 | |
EV/EBITDA adj. (x) | 24.6 | 38.9 | 21.7 | 14.3 | 27.9 | 19.7 | 17.7 | 13.5 | 10.8 | 9.4 | |
EV/EBITA adj. (x) | 25.6 | 38.9 | 23.3 | 15.3 | 32.9 | 22.0 | 19.9 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 10.0 | |
EV/EBIT adj. (x) | 25.6 | 38.9 | 23.3 | 15.3 | 32.9 | 22.0 | 19.9 | 14.6 | 11.6 | 10.0 | |
EV/CE (x) | 7.0 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 4.7 | |
Investment ratios | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |
Capex/sales (%) | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
Capex/depreciation | 3.3 | -- | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.9 | |
Capex tangibles / tangible fixed | 52.6 | 23.5 | 42.9 | 31.6 | 57.1 | 27.6 | 35.5 | 68.7 | 22.9 | 23.3 | |
assets | 44.2 | 42.9 | 22.4 | 9.0 | 19.3 | 40.5 | 12.8 | 18.9 | 101.0 | 376.0 | |
Capex intangibles / definite | |||||||||||
intangibles | 13 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 34 | 39 | 57 | 97 | 172 | 616 | |
Depreciation on intang / def. intang | |||||||||||
Depreciation on tangibles / | 15.79 | 0.00 | 31.43 | 37.89 | 32.14 | 34.14 | 36.77 | 17.10 | 16.70 | 16.36 | |
tangibles |
Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company Data
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Analyst Certification
We, ABGSC Capital Goods Research, Henric Hintze and Adrian Gilani, analyst(s) with ABG Sundal Collier ASA , ABG Sundal Collier Denmark, filial af ABG Sundal Collier ASA, Norge, ABG Sundal Collier AB and/or ABG Sundal Collier Limited (hereinafter collectively referred to as "ABG Sundal Collier"), and the author(s) of this report, certify that not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to below, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my/our personal view about the companies and securities covered in this report. I/We further certify that I/We has/have not been, nor am/are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
This report is produced by ABG Sundal Collier, which may cover companies either in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research ("independent research") or as commissioned research. Commissioned research is paid for by the subject company. As such, commissioned research is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e., not investment research) as defined in MiFID II.
Analyst valuation methods
ABG Sundal Collier analysts may publish valuation ranges for stocks covered under Company Sponsored Research. These valuation ranges rely on various valuation methods. One of the most frequently used methods is the valuation of a company by calculation of that company's discounted cash flow (DCF). Another valuation method is the analysis of a company's return on capital employed relative to its cost of capital. Finally, the analysts may analyse various valuation multiples (e.g. the P/E multiples and the EV/EBITDA multiples) relative to global industry peers. In special cases, particularly for property companies and investment companies, the ratio of price to net asset value is considered. Valuation ranges may be changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of a company's assets changes (in the cases of investment companies, property companies or insurance companies) or when factors impacting the required rate of return change.
Important Company Specific Disclosure
The following disclosures relate to the relationship between ABG Sundal Collier and its affiliates and the companies covered by ABG Sundal Collier referred to in this research report.
Unless disclosed in this section, ABG Sundal Collier has no required regulatory disclosures to make in relation to an ownership position for the analyst(s) and members of the analyst's household, ownership by ABG Sundal Collier, ownership in ABG Sundal Collier by the company(ies) to whom the report(s) refer(s) to, market making, managed or co-managed public offerings, compensation for provision of certain services, directorship of the analyst, or a member of the analyst's household, or in relation to any contractual obligations to the issuance of this research report.
ABG Sundal Collier has undertaken a contractual obligation to issue this report and receives predetermined compensation from the company covered in this report.
ABG Sundal Collier ASA is engaged in providing liquidity in SinterCast's securities at the time of this report's publication.
ABG Sundal Collier is not aware of any other actual, material conflicts of interest of the analyst or ABG Sundal Collier of which the analyst knows or has reason to know at the time of the publication of this report.
Production of report: 10/18/2023 11:12.
All prices are as of market close on 17 October, 2023 unless otherwise noted.
Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG Sundal Collier Denmark, filial af ABG Sundal Collier ASA, Norge, ABG Sundal Collier AB and/or ABG Sundal Collier Limited and any of their directors, officers, representatives and employees (hereinafter collectively referred to as "ABG Sundal Collier"). This report is not a product of any other affiliated or associated companies of any of the above entities.
This report is provided solely for the information and use of professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this report. The information contained herein does not apply to, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Research reports prepared by ABG Sundal Collier are for information purposes only. The recommendation(s) in this report is (are) has/ have no regard to specific investment objectives and the financial situation or needs of any specific recipient. ABG Sundal Collier and/or its affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses arising from any use of this report or its contents. This report is not to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but ABG Sundal Collier and/or its affiliates make no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions and estimates herein reflect the judgment of ABG Sundal Collier on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The compensation of our research analysts is determined exclusively by research management and senior management, but not including investment banking management. Compensation is not based on specific investment banking revenues, however, it is determined from the profitability of the ABG Sundal Collier group, which includes earnings from investment banking operations and other business. Investors should assume that ABG Sundal Collier ASA, ABG Sundal Collier Denmark, filial af ABG Sundal
18 October 2023 | ABG Sundal Collier | 8 |
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Collier ASA, Norge and/or ABG Sundal Collier AB is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report.
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk and sales personnel and other departments for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. From time to time, ABG Sundal Collier and/or its affiliates and any shareholders, directors, officers, or employees thereof may (I) have a position in, or otherwise be interested in, any securities directly or indirectly connected to the subject of this report, or (II) perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other services from, a company mentioned in this report. ABG Sundal Collier and/or its affiliates rely on information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas of ABG Sundal Collier, into other areas, units, groups or affiliates of ABG Sundal Collier.
Norway: ABG Sundal Collier ASA is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet)
Denmark: ABG Sundal Collier Denmark, filial af ABG Sundal Collier ASA, Norge, is regulated by the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway (Finanstilsynet) and the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finanstilsynet)
Sweden: ABG Sundal Collier AB is regulated by the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (Finansinspektionen)
UK: This report is a communication made, or approved for communication in the UK, by ABG Sundal Collier Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the conduct of its business.
US: This report is being distributed in the United States (U.S.) in accordance with FINRA Rule 1220 by ABG Sundal Collier Inc., an SEC registered broker-dealer and a FINRA/SIPC member which accepts responsibility for its content and its compliance with FINRA Rule 2241. Research reports distributed in the U.S. are intended solely for "major U.S. institutional investors," and "U.S. institutional investors" as defined under Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and any related interpretive guidance and no-action letters issued by the Staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") collectively ("SEC Rule 15a-6"). Each major U.S. institutional investor and U.S. institutional investor that receives a copy of this research report, by its acceptance of such report, represents that it agrees that it will not distribute this research report to any other person. This communication is only intended for major U.S. institutional investors and U.S. institutional investors. Any person which is not a major U.S. institutional investor, or a U.S. institutional investor as covered by SEC Rule 15a-6 must not rely on this communication. The delivery of this research report to any person in the U.S. is not a recommendation to effect any transactions in the securities discussed herein, or an endorsement of any opinion expressed herein. Any major U.S. institutional investor or U.S. institutional investor receiving this report which wishes to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein should contact ABG Sundal Collier Inc., not its affiliates. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from ABG Sundal Collier Inc., on request.
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Canada: This report is being distributed by ABG Sundal Collier ASA in Canada pursuant to section 8.25 of National Instrument 31-103 or an equivalent provision and has not been tailored to the needs of any specific investor in Canada. The information contained in this report is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, a prospectus, an advertisement, a public offering or an offer to sell the securities described herein, in Canada or any province or territory thereof. No securities commission or similar regulatory authority in Canada has reviewed or considered this report, the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described herein and any representation to the contrary is an offence. Under no circumstances is this report to be construed as an offer to sell such securities or as a solicitation of an offer to buy such securities in any jurisdiction of Canada. Any offer or sale of the securities described herein in Canada may only be made in accordance with applicable securities laws and only by a dealer properly registered under such securities laws, or alternatively, pursuant to an applicable dealer registration exemption, in the Canadian jurisdiction in which such offer or sale is made.
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Additional information available upon request. If reference is made in this report to other companies and ABG Sundal Collier provides research coverage for those companies, details regarding disclosures may be found on our website www.abgsc.com.
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SinterCast AB published this content on 18 October 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 19 October 2023 14:06:07 UTC.
