Newmark Group, Inc.
(Nasdaq: NMRK)
General Investor Presentation
March 2024
Property Type: Industrial
N M R K . C O M
Table of Contents | |
Newmark Overview & Investment Opportunity | 4 |
Newmark: Select Case Studies | 21 |
Recent GAAP Financial Results | 27 |
Appendix 1: Additional Newmark and Industry Information | 32 |
Appendix 2: Non-GAAP Definitions & Reconciliations | 41 |
NEWMARK 2
Disclaimers
Discussion of Forward-Looking Statements
References in this document to "we," "us," "our," the "Company" and "Newmark" mean Newmark Group, Inc., and its consolidated subsidiaries. Statements in this document regarding Newmark that are not historical facts are "forward- looking statements" that involve risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. These include statements about the Company's business, results, financial position, liquidity, and outlook, which may constitute forward-looking statements and are subject to the risk that the actual impact may differ, possibly materially, from what is currently expected. Except as required by law, Newmark undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. For a discussion of additional risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, see Newmark's Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including, but not limited to, the risk factors and Special Note on Forward-Looking Information set forth in these filings and any updates to such risk factors and Special Note on Forward-Looking Information contained in subsequent reports on Form 10-K, Form 10-Q or Form 8-K.Our expectations are subject to change based on various macroeconomic, social, political, and other factors. None of our long-term targets or goals beyond 2024 should be considered formal guidance.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
This document contains non-GAAP financial measures that differ from the most directly comparable measures calculated and presented in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles in the United States ("GAAP"). Non- GAAP financial measures used by the Company include "Adjusted Earnings before noncontrolling interests and taxes", which is used interchangeably with "pre-tax Adjusted Earnings"; "Post-tax Adjusted Earnings to fully diluted shareholders", which is used interchangeably with "post-tax Adjusted Earnings"; "Adjusted EBITDA"; and "Liquidity". The definitions of these and other non-GAAP terms are in the section of this document titled "Non-GAAP Financial Measures". See below for highlights of the Company's recent GAAP and non-GAAP results.
HIGHLIGHTS OF CONSOLIDATED RESULTS (USD millions, except per share data) | 4Q23 | 4Q22 | Change | FY2023 | FY2022 | Change |
Total Revenues | $747.4 | $607.3 | 23.1% | $2,470.4 | $2,705.5 | (8.7)% |
GAAP income before income taxes and | 82.4 | 18.5 | 346.6% | 103.5 | 154.6 | (33.1)% |
noncontrolling interests ("GAAP pre-tax income") | ||||||
GAAP net income for fully diluted shares | 52.9 | 8.9 | 493.4% | 42.6 | 110.4 | (61.4)% |
GAAP net income per fully diluted share | $0.21 | $0.04 | 425.0% | $0.24 | $0.45 | (46.7)% |
Adjusted Earnings before noncontrolling interests and taxes ("Pre-tax Adjusted Earnings") | 133.9 | 84.6 | 58.3% | 302.8 | 441.4 | (31.4)% |
Post-tax Adjusted Earnings to fully diluted shareholders ("Post-tax Adjusted Earnings") | 114.4 | 76.5 | 49.5% | 258.7 | 365.0 | (29.1)% |
Post-tax Adjusted Earnings per share ("Adjusted Earnings EPS") | $0.46 | $0.32 | 43.8% | $1.05 | $1.49 | (29.5)% |
Adjusted EBITDA ("AEBITDA") | 166.2 | 102.2 | 62.6% | 398.3 | 510.7 | (22.0)% |
Other Items
Investors may find the following information useful: (i) Throughout this document, certain other reclassifications may have been made to previously reported amounts to conform to the current presentation and to show results on a consistent basis across periods. Unless otherwise stated, any such changes would have had no impact on consolidated total revenues or earnings under GAAP or for Adjusted Earnings, all else being equal. Certain numbers in the tables or elsewhere throughout this document may not sum due to rounding. (ii) Rounding may have also impacted the presentation of certain year-on-year percentage changes. (iii) Decreases in losses may be shown as positive percentage changes in the financial tables. (iv) Changes from negative figures to positive figures may be calculated using absolute values, resulting in positive percentage changes in the tables.
NEWMARK 3
Newmark Overview &
Investment Opportunity
Property Type: Multifamily
NEWMARK 4
Leading Commercial Real Estate Advisor and Service Provider
2023 Revenues
~$2.5B
2022 + 2023 Transaction Volume
~$1.7T
Professionals
~7,400
Global Client Service Locations
~170
Top Global Public
CRE Services Companies
Acclaimed
Industry Leader
Top 3 U.S. Broker by Investment | #4 Freddie Mac Lender (2023) |
Volume (2023) | Top 5 Fannie Mae multifamily |
#2 Multifamily Broker (2023) | loan servicer (2023) |
#2 Office Broker (2023) | |
#4 Cross-Border Broker (2023) |
Ranked #2 Top Mortgage | Global Outsourcing 100® |
Banking & Brokerage Firms | for 15th consecutive year |
(2024) | in 2023 |
#3 Top CRE Brokerage Firms | |
(2023) |
Strong Earnings, Cash Generation
& Low Leverage
$398MM of Adjusted EBITDA in 2023
&
1.0x net leverage as of December 31, 2023
Notes: (i) Headcount and client service locations include independently-owned business partners. Excluding these business partners, we had nearly 7,000 employees in more than 140 offices as of December 31, 2023. Our revenues and volumes are for Newmark company-owned | ||
offices only. (ii) Volume figure is the notional value of leasing, investments sales, mortgage brokerage, and GSE/FHA origination transacted by the Company as well as the estimated value of all properties appraised by our V&A businesses for the past two calendar years. (iii) GSE | NEWMARK | 5 |
lending rankings are based on disclosures by Fannie Mae regarding Multifamily Delegated Underwriting & Servicing Lenders and/or by Freddie Mac about conventional Multifamily Optigo® Lenders. Servicing ranking is per the MBA. (iv) Adjusted EBITDA and net leverage are non- | ||
GAAP financial measures. See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" and "Financial Tables and Reconciliations." Fannie Mae multifamily loan servicer ranking is provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Full-Service Provider for Commercial Real Estate Owners & Occupiers
Founded in 1929, Newmark is a global leader in commercial real estate services, seamlessly powering every phase of the property life cycle
Mgmt. Services, Servicing Fees & Other:
$971 mm (+7% vs 2022)
- Loan servicing and asset management
- Valuation and advisory
- Property management
- Workplace strategy and other consulting services
- Project management
- Lease administration and facilities management
- Underwriting, due diligence, and other services for commercial lenders
39%
of 2023
Revenues
Leasing & other Commissions: $840 mm (+1% vs 2022)
‒ | Tenant representation leasing | |
‒ | Agency leasing | |
34% | ‒ Nearly all major property types including: | |
‒ Office, industrial, retail, healthcare |
Commercial Mortgage Origination:
$279 mm (-22% vs 2022)
11%
‒ Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac/FHA multifamily lending |
15%
Investment Sales: $381 mm (-37% vs 2022)
‒ | Commercial mortgage brokerage |
‒ Loan sale advisory1 | |
‒ | Equity recapitalization |
‒ Nearly all property types including: | |
‒ Multifamily, office, industrial, hotel/lodging, retail, senior housing, | |
and other/specialty (e.g. self storage, data center, healthcare, etc.) |
- Seller representation
- Buyer representation
- Loan sale advisory1
- Nearly all property types including:
- Multifamily, office, industrial, retail, senior housing, hotel/lodging, and other/specialty (e.g. self storage, data center, healthcare, etc.)
NEWMARK 6
1. Certain loan sales involving equity components are recorded as Investment Sales.
Newmark is a Compelling Investment Opportunity
Favorable long-term | Fastest growth in the | Diversified business with | Low risk intermediary with |
trends in $400B+ CRE | strength in key areas with | strong financial position & | |
CRE services industry2 | |||
services industry1 | secular tailwinds3 | cash flow generation4 |
- $400B+ TAM; continued consolidation around industry leaders
- As a service provider, we will benefit from ~$2T of CRE debt maturities
- $406B of institutional dry powder
- ~11% institutional allocation to CRE
Note: Any outlook is only as of December 31, 2023.
-
22% revenue CAGR since
2011 - Talent based platform outperforms industry peers across cycles
- More than $3 B in revenue and over $630 MM in Adjusted EBITDA once volumes fully normalize
- Strong incremental margins as industry volumes recover
- No ownership or investment in real estate
- Diverse revenue base with 39% recurring revenues
- 70% variable costs protect earnings when transaction activity slows
- $1B+ expected available capital
- 1.0x net leverage
- History of strong cash flow conversion
1. | (i) See slide titled "Record Quantities of Debt Maturing in 2024-2028" later in this presentation for more detail. (ii) Source: Allocations to CRE are per Cornell University - Hodes Weill & Associates, November 2023. | |
2. | See the slide titled "Fastest Growing CRE Services Firm Since 2011". | |
3. | Approximately 70% of GAAP and AE expenses over the last 3 fiscal years were variable, on average. | NEWMARK 7 |
4. | (i) See slide titled "Strong Financial Position & Cash Generation". (ii) Net Debt / TTM Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA and net leverage are non-GAAP financial measures. See "Financial Tables and Reconciliations". (iii) Defined as "Net cash provided by (used in) | |
operating activities" under GAAP ("CFFO") divided by Adjusted EBITDA or Post-tax Adjusted Earnings. See "Other useful information.".
Newmark is a Compelling Investment Opportunity
Favorable long-term trends in $400B+ CRE services industry
Fastest growth in the CRE
services industry
Diversified business with strength in key areas with secular tailwinds
Low risk intermediary with strong financial position & cash flow generation
NEWMARK 8
CRE Services is a Large and Highly Fragmented Global Market with a Long-term History of Strong Growth
Drivers of Global TAM
Global CRE Total Addressable Market (TAM) - FY 2022
Top 10 CRE Services
Firms, ~20%
$400B+
Global Revenue TAM
+70% since 2017
Remaining
Firms, 80%+
Notes: The total addressable market ("TAM") represents actual and estimated FY22 revenues earned globally by public and priva te commercial real estate services firms as well as potential revenues from services currently performed in-house. The TAM includes the global markets for the areas in which Newmark currently operates, as well as areas in which our public CRE services peers operate but where Newmark currently does not, such as real estate investment management. The top 10 CRE services companies are as measured by FY22 global total revenues include, in order: CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, Savills, Newmark, Marcus & Millichap, Walker & Dunlop, and Knight Frank (all per public disclosures). In addition, the top ten includes Avison Young as estimated based on their GVA acquisition press release on 2/1/19 and extrapolated to 2022 at the average growth rate of the other companies included.
Sources include IBIS World, Oxford Economics, Citigroup, Bloomberg, ANREV, INREV, NCREIF, NAREIT, MSCI, Investment Property Forum (UK), National Bureau of Statistics of China, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau, US Federal Reserve, public filings and press releases by the companies mentioned, and Newmark's estimate.
- Largest CRE services firms expanding offerings
- Debt maturity wall will drive equity recaps, refinancing, and sales, followed by leasing and demand for additional services when values reset
- Long-termgrowth in industry transaction volumes
- Increased outsourcing by CRE owners & occupiers
Newmark has significant opportunities for growth
- Acquisition of companies and the addition of revenue-generatingprofessionals
- Expanding into new CRE service lines (and cross-selling to existing customers)
- Expanding internationally, with ~13% international revenues (international revenues account for 70% + of global TAM)
NEWMARK 9
Record Quantities of Debt Maturing in 2024-2028
$1.3T of Outstanding CRE Debt is Potentially Troubled, $670B of this is Maturing in 2024-20261
1000
900 | |
800 | |
Billions | 700 |
600 | |
in | 500 |
Dollars | 400 |
300 | |
200 |
100
0
U.S. Commercial Mortgage Maturities ($B)
~$2T
2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
CMBS Insurance Government Agency Bank Debt Funds
- The MBA expects a record $929 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities in 2024
- We estimate that approximately:
- 1/3 are likely to be sold.
- 1/3 will need assistance with restructurings or recapitalizations.
- 1/3 will likely require an advisor to help find new lenders.
Sources: Newmark Research, Trepp, and the MBA. Data for 2016-2022 is based on Trepp. Data from 2023 onward is based on the MBA's 2023 loan maturities volumes published in February 2024. Some maturities that are shown in 2023 may have been rolled over to 2024. | ||
1. | Newmark Research used the following methodology: The loans are marked-to-market using an average of cumulative changes in the Dow Jones REIT sector price indices, REIT sector enterprise value indices and Green Street sector CPPI. The $1.3T covers the 2024 to 2033 | NEWMARK 10 |
maturity period, of which Newmark Research estimates $670B mature between 2024-2026. This analysis excludes other property types included in the Trepp and MBA figures, such as hotel and healthcare. The Trepp and MBA data excludes loans for acquisitions, development, and construction, as well as loans collateralized by owner-occupied commercial properties.
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Newmark Group Inc. published this content on 18 March 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 18 March 2024 18:25:04 UTC.