Q3
FY 2023
RESULTS & OUTLOOK
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation release includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Generally, the words "expects," "intend," "goals," "plans," "believes," "continues,"
"may," "anticipate," "seek," "estimate," "outlook," "trends," "future benefits," "potential," "projects," "strategies," and v ariations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward- looking statements. Statements that refer to projections of our future financial performance, our anticipated growth and trends in our businesses, and other characterizations of future events or circumstances are forward-looking statements, and include, but are not limited to, statements under the headings "Full Year Outlook" and "Key Fourth Quarter Guidance Drivers" with respect to expectations of cost inflation, limited consumer disposable income, consumer preferences, overall volume and market share trends, pricing trends, industry forces, cost reduction strategies, shipment levels and profitability, the sufficiency of capital resources, anticipated results, expectations for funding future capital expenditures and operations, debt service capabilities, timing and amounts of debt and leverage levels, market share and expectations regarding future dividends. In addition, statements that we make in this presentation that are not statements of historical fact may also be forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that the assumptions upon which its forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these assumptions will prove to be correct. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the Company's historical experience, and present projections and expectations are
disclosed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). These factors include, among other things, the deterioration of general economic, political, credit and/or
capital market conditions, including those caused by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict or other geopolitical tensions; our dependence on the global supply chain and significant exposure to changes in commodity and other input prices and the impacts of supply chain constraints and inflationary pressures; weak, or weakening of, economic, social and other conditions in the markets in which we do business, including cost inflation and reductions in discretionary consumer spending; loss, operational disruptions or closure of a major brewery or other key facility; cybersecurity incidents impacting our information systems, and violations of data privacy laws and regulations; our reliance on brand image, reputation and product quality; the evolution of the global beer industry and the broader alcohol industry, and our position within such industries; competition in our markets; our ability to successfully and timely innovate beyond beer; changes in the perceptions of the beverage categories in which we operate; labor strikes, work stoppages or other employee-related issues; ESG issues; inadequate supply or availability of quality water; factors impacting related pension plan costs and contributions; failure to comply with our debt covenants and restrictions; deterioration in our credit rating; impairments of the carrying value of our goodwill and other intangible assets; inaccurate estimates and assumptions on which our financial projections are based; our reliance on a small number of suppliers; changes of one or more manufacturer, distribution or production agreements, or issues caused by our dependence on the parties to these agreements; unfavorable outcomes of legal or regulatory matters; changes to the regulation of the distribution systems for our products; risks associated with operating our joint ventures; and other risks discussed in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. All forward-looking statements in this presentation are expressly qualified by such cautionary statements and by reference to the underlying assumptions. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. We do not undertake to update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law .
Non-GAAPInformation: This presentation refers to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Refer to our most recent press release for descriptions of these non-GAAP financial measures such as
underlying income (loss) before income taxes; underlying cost of goods sold ("COGS"); underlying marketing, general & administrative ("MG&A"); underlying effective tax rate; underlying free cash flow; net debt to underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ("underlying EBITDA"); net debt; underlying depreciation and amortization; constant currency; underlying
net interest expense; and various measures that adjust for the impacts of special items. Please see our most recent earnings release or the Appendix to this presentation to find disclosure and applicable reconciliations (or an explanation for why we are unable to provide a reconciliation without unreasonable efforts) of non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this presentation.
Market and Industry Data: The market and industry data used, if any in this presentation, are based on independent industry publications, customer specific data, trade or business organizations, reports by market research firms and other published statistical information from third parties, including Circana for U.S. market data and Beer Canada for Canadian market data (collectively, the
Third Party Information"), as well as information based on management's good faith estimates, which we derive from our review of internal information and independent sources. Such Third-Party
Information generally states that the information contained therein or provided by such sources has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable.
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Tracey Joubert
Chief Financial
Officer
CONSOLIDATED THIRD QUARTER
FISCAL YEAR 2023 RESULTS
Q3 2023* | % CHANGE | |
NET SALES REVENUE | $3,298 | +11.0%** |
UNDERLYING INCOME | $525 | +43.5%** |
BEFORE INCOME TAXES | ||
UNDERLYING EARNINGS | $1.92 | +45.5% |
PER SHARE | ||
YTD UNDERLYING FREE | $1.1B | +87.7% |
CASH FLOW | ||
NET DEBT TO UNDERLYING EBITDA RATIO | 2.2x | |
AS OF SEPTEMBER 30, 2023 | ||
DIVIDEND PER SHARE | $0.41 | +7.9% |
* Represents the Q3 2023 period and in millions unless otherwise specified | 3 | |||
** Represents the % change on a constant currency basis | ||||
RAISING OUR 2023 BOTTOM-LINE GUIDANCE
FULL YEAR OUTLOOK
1
2
3
4
The U.S. beer category is healthier than expected
Brand volume is stronger than expected and anticipated to accelerate in Q4
Pricing across global markets, particularly Canada, is better than planned
Lower net interest expense due to higher-than-expected cash balances
CURRENT | PRIOR | |
Net Sales Rev enue | High-Single Digit | High-Single Digit |
Growth - High End | Growth | |
Underlying Income Before Income | ||
32% to 36% | 23% to 26% | |
Taxes | ||
Underlying Free Cash Flow | $1.2B +/- 10% | $1.2B +/- 10% |
Capital Expenditures Incurred | $700M +/-5% | $700M +/-5% |
Underlying Depreciation | ||
$690M +/-5% | $690M +/-5% | |
& Amortization | ||
Net Interest Expense | $210M +/-5% | $225M +/-5% |
Underlying Effectiv e Tax Rate | 21% to 23% | 21% to 23% |
Notes: References to better than expected relate to expectations as of August 1, 2023 when the Company most recently updated guidance. | 4 |
Net Sales Revenue and Underlying Income before Income Tax* growth rates are YOY 2023 vs. 2022 on a constant currency basis.
KEY FOURTH QUARTER 2023 OUTLOOK DRIVERS
1
2
Experience a reduced level of pricing benefit across the U.S. and
EMEA & APAC
Expect U.S. brand volume to outpace financial volume growth due to strong Q3 2023 brewery performance
3
4
Expect Underlying COGS/HL to be
- headwind on continued high EMEA&APAC inflation and lower volume leverage vs Q3 and Q2 2023
Expect MG&A to be up by approximately $90M on both higher marketing investment and G&A expense
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CONSOLIDATED Q3 2023 REVENUE AND VOLUME
NET SALES REVENUE
(CONSTANT CURRENCY)
+11.0%
Price
Volume
Strong global net pricing due to fall 2022 rollover | |
pricing and favorable sales mix driven by | |
geographic mix led to 7.6% consolidated net | |
sales/hl growth. | |
Consolidated financial volume increased 3.2%, | |
driven by U.S. shipment growth of 7.2%. | |
U.S. shipment growth was due to our strong | |
brewery performance, which enabled us to ship | |
22.1 | |
ahead of our expectations, as well as continued | |
strong momentum behind our premium brands. | |
EMEA & APAC financial volume | |
Mix | |
decreased 5.5% on lower brand volume. | |
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CONSOLIDATED Q3 2023 BRAND VOLUME
Consolidated brand volume was up 1.1%
Americas brand volume was up 3.6%, led by 4.5% U.S. brand volume growth driven by core brands. On a trading day adjusted basis, U.S. brand volume growth was up 6.1%. Canada was up 0.2% on above premium portfolio growth. Latin America was down 2.5% due to industry softness and economic conditions.
EMEA & APAC brandPricevolume was
down 5.2% due to continued inflationary pressuresVolumein Central and Eastern Europe
and rainy U.K. weather.
BRAND VOLUME | Key: | Q3 22 | Q3 23 | |
+4.5% | ||||
-5.2% | ||||
+0.2% | ||||
U.S. | Canada | EMEA & APAC |
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CONSOLIDATED Q3 2023 UNDERLYING COGS/HL
UNDERLYING COGS/HL
(CONSTANT CURRENCY)
+2.6%
Q322 | Q2 23 |
Americas was down 1.0% as cost sav ings, v olume lev erage, and lower logistics costs more than offset the impacts of direct material inflation.
EMEA & APAC was up 15.8% on continued inflationary pressure on materials and manufacturing costs.
UNDERLYING COGS/HL DRIVERS
Volume Leverage
(favorable)
Inflation & Other* | Mix |
(unfavorable) | (unfavorable) |
Inflation/Other* (including higher materials and manufacturing costs) was ~85% of the increase in underlying COGS/hl.
Volume leverage had an 80-basis point positiv e impact.
Mix impacts from geographic mix also contributed to the increase.
* "Other" includes depreciation, cost savings, | 8 | ||
and other items, net | |||
CONSOLIDATED Q3 2023
UNDERLYING MG&A
Supporting the strong momentum of our core brands with incremental $100 million in investment in the second half of 2023 vs the prior- year period
G&A increased due to incentive compensation as a result of strong operating performance
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Underlying Free Cash
Flow was $1.1 billion
for the first nine
months of the year, up 87.7% vs the prior- year period
Capital Expenditures paid were $494 million for the first nine months of the year. This was directed toward our Golden brewery modernization and expanding our capabilities to drive efficiencies, cost savings and our sustainability initiatives.
Reduced our Net Debt by $584 million since December 31, 2022, ending the quarter with Net Debt of $5.4 billion. Net Debt to Underlying EBITDA ratio as of quarter-endreached 2.2x, consistent with our longer- term leverage ratio target of under 2.5x.
Paid a quarterly dividend of $0.41 per share, up 8% versus the prior- year period, and on October 3, 2023 announced a new share repurchase program of up to $2 billion over a five-year period.
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Molson Coors Beverage Company published this content on 02 November 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 02 November 2023 15:06:44 UTC.