IN D E P E N D E N T E Q U IT Y R E S E AR C H

Doral Energy - Update Report

01.01.2023

Stock Exchange

TASE

Symbol

DORL

Sector

Technology

Sub-sector

Renewable Energy

Stock price target

NIS 24.5

Closing price

NIS 8.29

Market cap

NIS 1.47 Bn

No. of shares

177.7 Mn

Average Daily Trading Volume

4,914 stocks

Stock Performance

(Since Jan. 2022)

-40.1%

Doral shows significant progress constructing in several markets with the capacity of solar projects of approx. 1,290 MW (DC) + approx. 1,300 MWh of storage facilities in construction/approaching construction stages, received construction permits for the entire Indiana project; secured the necessary capital to establish the mature backlog and continued growth in the US; growth in the company's revenues; price target is unchanged.

Doral presents additional growth in its operations alongside revenue growth. Doral ended Q3 2022 with revenues of approx. NIS 66.1 million (Non-Gaap). The company presents a significant increase in its portfolio to approx. 16 GW (DC) and approx. 10 GWh, of which approx. 2.88 GW (DC) and approx. 1.8 GWh are mature (projects that are profitable and ready for connection, under construction or nearing construction and/or after winning competitive procedures or signing a PPA). Also, in recent months, the company has demonstrated accelerated progress in its activities, both in the PV and storage fields in the US, continued progress in the construction of the first part of the giant project in Indiana, Mammoth North (480 MWp), signing agreements for the sale of electricity for each Indiana project (approx. 1,600 MWp) for 15 years, and issuing building permits for the entire Indiana project. The company is in the midst of building solar projects combined with storage in Israel and has even commercially operated the first project of this type in Israel. The company operates in a variety of different technologies, including solar, solar + storage, standalone storage, wind, and biogas.

As one of the dominant players in Israel, Doral enjoys advantages of scale in procurement and more. In addition, the company established the Doral Tech arm, which invests in start-up companies engaged in the development of synergistic technologies for the group's activities.

Additional significant events in Q3 2022:

  • Received building permits for Indiana South and Indiana Central projects, and in the process, a building permit for the entire Indiana project.
  • Doral LLC entered into a deal with Apollo, which enables the continued implementation of the growth strategy in the US.
  • Signed MoU to finance solar + storage projects in Israel and bridging frameworks for financial closure.
  • Won a cap and a protection tariff for 80 MW (AC) for upper voltage part of "Hadrei Sha'an" project.
  • Entered into agreement with Waaree Energies, a PV panel supplier, for approx. NIS 500 million.
  • Completed a deal for the full acquisition of 33% of Invenergy Solar Development's holdings in the "Hadrei Sha'an" project.

Recall that global growth potential is far from being exhausted. Investment in renewable energy peaked at $350 billion in 2020, of which solar and wind energy account for $290 billion. In addition, we see potential for renewable energy in the US by huge programs promoted by the Biden administration totaling $3 trillion.

We anticipate significant growth in the company's activity in 2023, alongside the commercial operation of the first major project in the US, and a variety of solar and storage projects in Israel. We are updating the economic model based on the company's progress in the various projects including

Year

Revenues*

EBITDA*

(M NIS)

(M NIS)

2020A

59.9

55.2

2021A

71.7

63.5

2022E

114

100

*Expected annual revenues/EBOTDA from projects (representing 100% holdings in projects), not including management fees and additional income at the corporation level.

Lead Analyst Dr. Tiran Rothman

Equity.Research@frost.com

Tel.: +972-9-9502888

Doral

01.01.2023

Key events in Q3 2022 and in recent months:

  • On December 8, the company commercially operated its first facility in Israel under the Electricity Authority's competitive procedures 1 and 2 for the construction of solar facilities combined with storage, with a capacity of approx. 5.5 MW (DC) combined with approx. 12 MWh of storage.
    1. This is the first facility of its kind to be connected to the electricity grid in Israel, which includes storage capabilities and electricity flow management according to the rules of the competitive procedures, which will enable the supply of renewable energy to the electricity grid, even beyond the conventional production hours in which solar panels generate electricity.
  • On November 3, Doral LLC received a construction permit for the Indiana South and Indiana Central projects, whose capacity is estimated at 1.1 GW (DC). Upon receiving the building permit, the process of issuing building permits for the entire Indiana project was completed.
  • On October 14, Doral LLC entered into a transaction with funds managed by Apollo and/or its affiliated companies, a leading global alternative investment management corporation, through a wholly owned corporation, which will own all of Doral LLC's subsidiaries. As part of the transaction, the investor will provide up to USD 500 million, against the receipt of the convertible notes, which will be used mainly for investments in renewable energy projects in the US.
    1. At the time of completion of the transaction, the designated corporation issued to the investor a convertible note in the amount of USD 90M, of which the company intends to use 63 million dollars to finance part of the equity capital needs for the Indiana South project. In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the designated corporation will be allowed (but not obligated) to issue additional convertible notes to the new investor, in amounts of up to USD 410 million, no later than 31.12.2024.
  • On September 15, the company won a cap and protection tariff for 80 MW (AC), intended for the upper voltage part of the "Hadrei Sha'an" project. Together with the other parts of the project, which are intended to connect to the high-voltage grid, the "Hadrei Sha'an" project is expected to amount to a capacity of about 180 MW (DC).
  • On September 8, the company's board of directors approved a private allotment of approx. 31 million ordinary shares to third parties in exchange for NIS 11.5 for one ordinary share of the company, which amounts to a total (gross) of approx. NIS 353.7 million.
  • On August 31, Doral LLC, through a project corporation held by it at a rate of 77.5% (in chain), which holds all the rights in the Indiana South project, whose capacity is estimated at 360 MW (DC), entered into an agreement with Waaree Energies Ltd. Supply photovoltaic panels for the construction of the project, at a cost of approx. NIS 500 million.
  • On August 23, a transaction was completed for the purchase of the entire 33% holdings (in the chain) of the company Invenergy Solar Development LLC in the "Hadrei Sha'an" project, and this, to the best of the company's knowledge, against the background of strategic changes in Invenergy's activities in Israel.
  • On August 10, the company signed a memorandum of understanding for financing of solar + storage projects of approx. NIS 2.2 billion (senior debt and other frameworks). The financing is intended for projects whose construction cost is estimated at approx. NIS 1.5 billion, through a consortium of lenders that will be formed led by Bank Mizrahi-Tefahot.
    1. On November 14, a corporation wholly owned by the company entered into a rolling bridging framework agreement with the bank, in the amount of NIS 200 million, to finance projects in the immediate term, even before financial closure.
  • On June 23, the company entered into a cooperation agreement with companies controlled by Phoenix Holdings Ltd. and Ampa Partnerships Limited Partnership for the initiation, development, construction, operation, or sale of facilities for storing electricity and/or managing the charging of batteries for electric vehicles, provided that these facilities are used for the electricity consumption at the site where they are located, and all within the territory of the State of Israel, including the aforementioned facilities which will be located in residential buildings, parking lots, hospitals, office buildings and commercial, industrial and tourist centers with an expected scope of hundreds of megawatt hours.

R E S E A R C H & C O N S U L T I N G L T D.

Executive Summary

Investment Thesis

Globally, the renewable energy sector is in growth momentum in most countries as a result of government decisions and organizations to reduce dependence on polluting fuels and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which are reflected in governments' actions to meet renewable energy targets they are committed to according to the Paris 2015 agreement.

The implementation of government decisions translates into policies, regulations, and licensing processes of companies that build renewable energy electricity generating facilities that are supposed to provide electricity over many years in a reliable, safe and economical manner.

Doral is well respected in its industry, both locally and globally. Their reputation extends across the Renewable Energy value and supply chains, as well as within their specific business ecosystem. The company has successful experience across all steps and stages of renewable energy projects, including initiation, development, financing, construction, management, operation, ownership, and sale of assets.

The company aims to continue creating value by leveraging its significant land reserves and proven expertise in working with landlords, in Israel and internationally. The company's strategy is to select and operate in markets that demonstrate a combination of factors with specific emphasis on; supportive policy, regulations, favorable natural resources, an opportunity to optimize the development, and market size that supports future growth. In international markets the company partners with local entities that provide advantages in the initial early stages of development.

Doral's strategy is to target Israel, the USA, and Europe as its main markets for the foreseeable future. It has the experience, the capital and knowledge to promote its projects; however, the test will be in converting pipeline projects due in 1-5 years to grid connected facilities. Thus, in our economic model we used probabilities to quantify this conversion. Specifically, the company's strategy is to select and operate in markets that demonstrate a combination of factors, with specific emphasis on supportive policy, regulations, favorable market conditions, an opportunity to optimize technology and increase installed capacity. In international markets, the company partners with local entities that have competitive advantages at the initial and early stages of development.

Doral's value proposition to investors, partners, and suppliers include:

  • Capabilities of developing and initiating renewable energy facilities, from identifying the appropriate land for the project to connecting the facility to the electricity grid and holding it in the long-term.
  • Creating larger profit margins due to exceptional accessibility to land in Israel, Europe, and the United States and optimizing the development processes.
  • Focus on markets that are mature or maturing in terms of renewable energy policy and regulation, and such markets where renewable energy sources provide competitive electricity prices without the need for subsidies.

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R E S E A R C H & C O N S U L T I N G L T D.

  • Size advantage in the purchase of equipment for projects, financing of projects, and contracts with entities to sell electricity.
  • High probability of obtaining financing due to a positive reputation and established business relationships in the industry.
  • Identifying opportunities, creativity, innovation, and daring.

We forecast that Doral's projects' (representing 100% holdings in projects assuming a full year of operation)

will generate revenues of NIS 124 million by the end of 2022.

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R E S E A R C H & C O N S U L T I N G L T D.

Company Overview

Doral Renewable Energy Resources Group (TASE:DORL) initiates, develops, builds and operates renewable energy projects across Israel, the US and Europe. The company's vision is to implement their renewable energy projects globally. The company has projects with a capacity of approx. 16 GW that are in various stages of initiation and development. At the beginning of 2022, the company set an updated goal for the years 2025- 2026, when as of the date of publication of the reports, the general portfolio goal it had set for itself had already been achieved today. Doral believes in the application of innovative technologies and is active in various fields of renewable energy, including the combination of solar energy and energy storage. Doral is the big winner in the first and second competitive procedure for the construction of solar facilities that integrate energy storage, with the total portfolio including approx. 10 GWh of energy storage facilities.

Project pipeline overview

Update of the company's goals for the coming years

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Doral Group Renewable Energy Resources Ltd. published this content on 01 January 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 01 January 2023 16:27:03 UTC.