BP PLC : Could beat the consensus in first quartely
By Oscar Salza
Entry price | Target | Stop-loss | Potential |
---|---|---|---|
GBX 442.95 | GBX 0 | GBX 410 | -100% |
BP will report Q1 2012 results on 1 May before market. Since 2000, the company used to beat the consensus with the biggest surprise on the Q1. In fact in the first quarterlies BP has beaten the consensus in average with surprise rate of 9%, according to JP Morgan data. Thomson Reuters’ consensus attends first quarterly revenues of $87 893 millions with diluted earnings per share of $0.29. The company trades at 6.3x Thomson Reuters’ 2012 earnings per share estimate.
On the short-term the stock is within a bearish trend. This trend is under pressure by 20-periods moving average’s movement. In daily data, the share is testing the GBp 442 short-term support. Also in weekly data, the share offers a good point of entry ; in fact it trades close to long-term support and in the area where 50 periods moving average crosses that 100 periods.
We suggest to take a long position on the stock with a target price around 500 GBp, long-term resistance in both daily and weekly data. Seen lasts first quarterly, we could forecast a good next earnings release, but is necessary to pay attention to previous competitors’ publications, as Exxon on 26 April.