The CAC40 (+0.9%) breaks through the 8,000 mark and climbs to 8,028pts: the Paris Bourse rallies vigorously in response to Christine Lagarde's remarks at the end of her monetary policy meeting.
The Euro-Stoxx50 soars +1.2% to 4,975 (record), with the 5,000 mark in sight in a few hours' time (or before the publication of the 'NFP' on Friday at 2:30 p.m.?000 in sight in a few hours' time (or before the publication of the 'NFP' on Friday at 2.30 p.m.?), while the DAX, which is flirting with +0.9%, also breaks a record (the 9th in 12 sessions) at 18,860Pts.
Record rain on Wall Street, which started the session with a clear advance, with the S&P500 climbing +0.9% to 5,153 (record)
The Nasdaq-100 index could set an all-time closing record: it will have to go for 18,300.
The Nasda-100 rises +0.8% to 18,200 (semiconductor sector surges +2%)... 18,300 is not far off... and Nvidia with +3.5% is close to $920 and $2,300 billion in capitalization.

All the indices on both sides of the Atlantic are piling up records this Thursday and heading resolutely for a 19th week of gains: the longest bull cycle in history without a weekly correction of -2% seems unstoppable.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy's threats of war with Russia on Thursday - "there is no limit to support for the Ukraine" (implying the dispatch of long-range missiles, then troops, and even the implicit threat of nuclear fire) - are not making the markets tremble, and they are not paying any attention.

Only gold, which set a new all-time record at $2.153, could - possibly - be linked to a tense geopolitical context, but the most favoured explanation is that the easing of interest rates and the recent fall in the dollar favour the precious metal.

The European Central Bank has maintained - as expected - the deposit rate at 4%, but has reduced its inflation projections for the eurozone to 2.3% in 2024, then 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.

Excluding energy and food products ('core inflation'), its underlying inflation assumptions have also been revised downwards to an average of 2.6% for 2024, then 2.1% and 2% respectively for the following two years.
According to the teams at Muzinich, an asset management company specializing in credit, the overnight interest rate swap market estimates an 86% probability that the ECB will cut rates by 25 basis points in June.
This means that a rate cut is possible as soon as the FED has acted in this direction, probably as early as mid-June.
And an easing in the cost of money will come quickly, since the ECB has also lowered its growth projection for 2024 to 0.6%.

The eurozone economy is then expected to recover, growing by 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, driven first by consumption and then also by investment.
Bond markets are also euphoric about the ECB's performance, with our OATs easing by -3pts to 2.753%, Bunds by -2.5pts to 2.3200%, and Italian BTPs by -5pts to 3.6150%.

There were also several US figures: the US trade deficit widened to $67.4 billion in January, from the previous month's $64.2 billion (which was revised from an initial estimate of $62.2 billion), according to the Commerce Department.

This 5.1% month-on-month increase in the deficit reflects a 1.1% rise in US imports of goods and services, to $324.6 billion, while exports were almost stagnant (+0.1%) at $257.2 billion.
US productivity was revised 'unchanged' at 3.2%, and weekly jobless claims were also virtually unchanged last week.

On the currency markets, the euro reverses course: down 0.3% this morning, it now gains 0.3% against the dollar at 1.0930 after the ECB meeting.
On the energy front, the oil market is stabilizing after its surge of the previous day, with the announcement of an anecdotal rise in crude oil inventories accompanied by a decline in gasoline and refined product reserves.

Brent crude is up 0.5% at around $82.4 a barrel, while US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) is down 0.6% at $78.6.


Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.