Geoffrey Craig, Platts Oil Futures Editor
New York - January 20, 2015

Platts Survey of Analysts
Crude oil stocks up 2.5 million barrels
Gasoline stocks up 1.05 million barrels
Distillate stocks up 167,000 barrels
Refinery utilization, or run rate, down 0.84 percentage point to 90.16%

NEW YORK, January 20, 2015 - Platts - U.S. commercial crude oil stocks are expected to have increased 2.5 million barrels during the week ended January 16, a Platts analysis and survey of oil analysts showed Tuesday.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly stocks data at 4:30 p.m. EST (2130 GMT) Wednesday; the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly data at 11 a.m. EST (1600 GMT) Thursday. The inventory data release was delayed a day because of Monday's federal holiday.

The EIA five-year average shows inventories increasing 1.9 million barrels for the reporting week, marking the start of maintenance season. During this period, lasting through April, crude oil demand falls, causing stockpiles to accumulate until more refineries begin returning to operation.

U.S. crude oil stocks are at healthy levels compared with recent historical standards. At 388 million barrels on January 9, crude oil stocks were 13.7% above the EIA five-year average (2010-2014) for the same reporting period.

The steep drop in oil prices is raising the possibility that some oil companies may try to accumulate crude oil to take advantage of higher prices for longer-dated futures contracts.

Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma, for example, rose 1.8 million barrels to 34 million barrels the week ended January 9. Cushing stocks have increased six weeks in a row. And the terminal has plenty of room left for additional storage. The most recent EIA data shows total capacity at 85 million barrels.

Analysts expect the U.S. refinery utilization rate to be down 0.84 percentage point at 90.16%.

In refinery news, fires shut down a pair of facilities the week ended January 16. They were Husky Energy's 150,000 barrels per day (b/d) Lima, Ohio, refinery and the Girard Point section at Philadelphia Energy Solutions' 330,000 b/d refinery complex in Philadelphia.

BP restarted a crude oil distillation unit (CDU) at its 413,000 b/d Whiting, Indiana, refinery. The CDU had been shut after cold weather had caused an unplanned outage.

And Tesoro's 166,000 b/d Golden Eagle refinery in Martinez, California, entered planned maintenance the week ended January 16.

GASOLINE STOCKS EXPECTED TO RISE

U.S. gasoline stocks are expected to have risen 1.05 million barrels the week ended January 16, according to analysts surveyed. The EIA five-year average shows inventories building 1.7 million barrels in the comparable reporting week.

Stocks on the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB futures contract -- were at a 10.7% surplus to the EIA five-year average for the week ended January 9.

Marathon Petroleum shut the fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) at its Galveston Bay refinery in Texas City, Texas. The refinery has 174,214 b/d of catalytic cracking capacity, according to EIA data.

FCCs convert vacuum gasoil into gasoline and other high-end, refined products. An FCC's closure could result in a gasoline stock drawdown, unless imports increase enough to offset production losses.

U.S. distillate stocks are expected to have increased 167,000 barrels the week ended January 16. The EIA five-year average shows U.S. distillate stocks falling 1.5 million barrels during the latest reporting week.

Refinery news that could impact distillate production the week ended January 16 included the shutdown of the hydrocracker at Tesoro's 363,000 b/d refinery in Carson, California. Together, Carson, and Tesoro's Wilmington, California, refinery are referred to as the Los Angeles Refinery. The complex is the Los Angeles area's largest refinery.


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