Contrasting trends for the dollar, which is hovering close to equilibrium (+0.03% at 104.48 for the $-Index): the greenback is up 0.25% against the euro at 1.0800/1.0795, then 0.1% against the pound, but is down symmetrically by -0.3% against the Swiss franc (0.9010) and -0.25% against the Canadian dollar.
The surprise comes from the yen's inertia, stuck at around $151.40 despite rumours of intervention by the Bank of Japan to halt the yen's fall, which for the past 10 days has been close to its annual lows (151.6) and lows since October 31 or mid-November 2023 (151.7) and mid-October 2022 (151.8 on 10/21).
The $/yen - at its highest since the end of July 1990 - is part of a bullish triangle which suggests a new upward cycle for the dollar towards 1.60 (ex-zenith of early February 199) then 1.70/1.72, a level not seen since May 1986.
The Euro does not seem to be destabilized by the prospect of France's credit rating being downgraded within the next month, due to excessive deficits in 2023 which are likely to be repeated - in the same proportions - in 2024 as a result of erroneous growth forecasts, and overestimated tax revenues (a VAT hike in France in 2024 is among the most plausible scenarios).

Forex is very quiet on the eve of the Easter long weekend, and on the eve of a major US inflation statistic: the US PCE index could ease or reinforce concerns about the reawakening of inflation.
The day was marked by the publication of the latest estimate of US GDP growth in Q4: it was revised upwards by +0.2% to an annualized rate of 3.4%, according to a third estimate from the Commerce Department.

This revision mainly reflects upward revisions to consumer spending and non-residential fixed investment, which were partly offset by a downward revision to investment in private inventories.
The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index finally improved in March, according to the final results of the University of Michigan's monthly survey published on Thursday.

The confidence index calculated on the basis of this survey of households rose to 79.4, up from 76.5 announced in the preliminary version, after 76.9 in February.

It was the component measuring consumers' judgment of their current situation that particularly improved, to 82.5 from 79.4 in February, while the sub-index measuring their expectations rose to 77.4, after 75.2 last month.

Above all, these results show a deterioration in consumers' inflation expectations over a one-year horizon, now estimated at 2.9% instead of 3% last month.
The Labor Department announced 210,000 new jobless claims in the US for last week, a figure down 2,000 on the previous week's revised figure (212,000 instead of 210,000).


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