Of course, the stakes are not the same for all central banks, but we'll take a look at the main ones. In the US, the Fed is almost certain to leave rates unchanged. The key issue at this week's meeting is to determine how concerned US central bankers are about the slight upturn in inflation seen in January and February. In recent days, the market has been skeptical about its favorite scenario: a first rate cut in June. However, futures contracts still show a 57% probability of a rate cut in June, albeit considerably less than a week earlier (71%). As a reminder, investors are eyeing rate cuts because money will become cheaper, which will encourage investment and borrowing, and reduce the risk of a negative chain reaction on the credit or property markets.

In Japan, the BOJ is expected to raise rates by a quarter of a point, confirming the end of negative rates in the country. Japan's monetary policy is at odds with the rest of the world, having fought deflation for decades and kept the yen under pressure to help its many exporting companies. The return of inflation, albeit lower than in many other countries, gives the BOJ the opportunity to normalize its policy. Bets are now largely in favor of a rate hike, whereas investors were still hesitant at the beginning of the month. Bloomberg gives a probability of 90%.

The BOE (UK), the RBA (Australia) and the SNB (Switzerland), without doing them any injustice, will not have the same international reach as the Fed and the BOJ. But their respective positions are always closely scrutinized, especially when they are faced with the problem of inflation returning ahead of other economies.

Elsewhere in the news, the week starts with high oil prices. Brent crude above USD 85 a barrel, its highest level since early November. The reduction in supply and the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining facilities pulled prices up. In China, the latest statistics tend to confirm the slight upturn seen in recent weeks. Industrial production rebounded more strongly than expected in January/February (+7% vs. +5.3% expected) and retail sales were in line with expectations (+5.5%).

What would a market point be in 2024 without artificial intelligence? Rest assured, I've got it in spades: Nvidia is holding a major multi-day conference starting this Monday, during which the group and its guru, Jensen Huang, are expected to present innovations. The event is important enough for financiers to have targeted it as a potential rebound vector for technology stocks. In premarket trading, Nasdaq 100 futures was up 1.2% in anticipation. Futures on the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 were also in the green.

In Russia, Vladimir Putin has been re-elected for a further six years, with almost 88% of the vote. The leader has thus found himself reassured, despite timid domestic opposition and cries of indignation from the West. He took the opportunity to warn of the risks of a third world war.

Israel is continuing its offensive in Gaza and is still threatening to extend it to Rafah. At the same time, negotiations continue in Qatar to obtain a ceasefire.

SpaceX, one of Elon Musk's companies, is building a spy satellite network for US intelligence, according to several sources quoted by Reuters.

March 18 was chosen by several index providers as the effective date for the latest quarterly changes announced a few days ago. In the US, Super Micro Computer and Deckers Outdoor replace Whirlpool and Zion in the S&P500. Reddit is set to take its first steps on the stock market, in what will be an emblematic IPO of early 2024.

A number of earnings releases remain this week: Accenture, Micron and Nike in the US, Partners Group, Enel, BMW and Swatch in Europe.

In the Asia-Pacific region, green dominates, with the exception of the Indian market, which fell slightly. European leading indicators are mostly flat to start the week, with the Stoxx EU 600 at zero and the FTSE 100 up 0.1%.

Today's economic highlights:

European inflation for February and US house prices are on the agenda. 

The dollar is slightly down to EUR 0.9174 and GBP 0.7848. The ounce of gold is losing ground at USD 2161. Oil is firm, with North Sea Brent at USD 85.27 a barrel and US light crude WTI at USD 80.96. The yield on 10-year US debt stands at 4.30%. Bitcoin falls to USD 68,300.

In corporate news:

  • Nvidia kicks off its annual developer conference (GTC) on Monday, a key industry event which is expected to focus on new product announcements.
  • Tesla gains 3% in pre-market trading, as the automaker declares it will raise the price of its Model Y in certain regions of Europe.
  • The US-listed stock of Chinese carmaker Xpeng rises 7.1% in pre-market trading after the group announced plans to launch a cheaper brand, amid a price war in the electric vehicle sector.
  • United Airlines' Chief Executive Officer announced on Monday that he was reviewing recent safety incidents involving the airline in order to update safety training and procedures for its employees.

Analyst recommendations:

  • Charter Communications, Inc.: Bernstein upgrades to outperform from market perform with a price target reduced from USD 414 to USD 370.
  • Essex Property Trust, Inc.: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 265.
  • Pepsico, Inc.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equal weight with a target price of USD 190.
  • Pinterest, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated drops coverage on the stock.
  • Regions Financial Corporation: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 20 to USD 23.
  • Ball Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 65.
  • Costar Group, Inc.: JMP Securities maintains its market outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 85 to USD 110.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight rating and raises the target price from USD 95 to USD 120.
  • Bytes Technology Group Plc: Numis downgrades to hold from add with a price target raised from GBX 575 to GBX 585.
  • Rentokil Initial Plc: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from GBX 475 to GBX 620.
  • Centrica Plc: RBC Capital downgrades to sector perform from outperform with a price target raised from GBX 140 to GBX 145.
  • Reckitt Benckiser: BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target reduced from GBX 5600 to GBX 5300.