SAO PAULO, March 6 (Reuters) - Brazilian mills in the main sugar region of Centre-South (CS) are projected to produce 4.8% less sugar in the new season that starts in April, compared with the previous crop, consultancy Datagro said in a presentation on Wednesday.
Datagro projected Brazil's 2024/25 sugar output at 40.45 million metric tons versus 42.50 million tons in 2023/24, saying that drier-than-normal weather in producing areas since November will cut sugarcane volume by 9.8% to 592 million tons.
Datagro's chief analyst Plinio Nastari said during the presentation that agricultural yields in Brazil's CS will likely fall to 78.8 tons of sugarcane per hectare in the new crop from 88.3 tons per hectare in 2023/24 due to drier, warmer weather.
Datagro's Brazil sugar projection is in line with views of some traders and producers such as
BP Bunge Bioenergia
and Sucden, who also see the new crop at around 40 million tons.
Asian sugar trader Wilmar
, however, believes that an increased industrial capacity to make sugar in Brazil, despite a smaller cane crop, could result in sugar production to grow to as much as 44 million tons.
Datagro projected Brazil's CS ethanol production at 30.42 billion liters (803.6 billion gallons) in 2024/25, 9.3% less than in previous season. That number includes 7.12 billion liters of corn-based ethanol, which shows how cane mills are cutting down on cane-based ethanol production as they make more money producing sugar.
Nastari said that despite the smaller Brazilian production, the world will see an improvement in sugar supplies as he expects a recovery in India and Thailand.
Datagro projected a global supply surplus of 1.9 million tons in 2024/25 versus a deficit of 0.88 million tons in 2023/24.
(Reporting by Roberto Samora, writing by Marcelo Teixeira in New York Editing by Marguerita Choy)
