By By Deepa Seetharaman
The stream of bleak news reached fever pitch after U.S. companies shed more than 200,000 jobs in January and some investors worried a plan to shore up banks may take longer to come together.
The nation's recovery hopes have been placed squarely on the shoulders of lawmakers in Washington, where the U.S. Senate will begin a closely watched debate next week on the $887 billion economic stimulus bill, after the House of Representatives passed its version without a single Republican vote.
"If they come up with a plan -- any kind of plan -- the market will rally a little bit next week," said Warren Simpson, managing director at Stephens Capital Management in Little Rock, Arkansas.
But Simpson cautioned that without a plan, stocks could retest the November bear market lows. Indeed, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, said in a research note that the S&P 500 could challenge this low during the first quarter of 2009.
"Everybody's nervous here," Simpson said.
JANUARY JOBLESS RATE MAY SOAR
After a cascade of job cuts this week, investors are bracing for the government's January employment report expected Friday and the ADP employment data due Wednesday.
Forecasts for the January unemployment rate hover around 7.5 percent, according to ThomsonReuters estimates. That would be the highest monthly jobless rate since September 1992 and an increase from December's 7.2 percent, Economists expect that U.S. non-farm payrolls shrank by 524,000 in January.
Adding to the grim economic backdrop will be same-store sales expected from a slew of retailers on Thursday. Quarterly results from companies, including drug maker Merck & Co
"Everyone knows the numbers are going to be bad, but what we need to see is the direction policies are taking," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management Corp in Chicago.
"Washington can change the tone of the market."
BANKS ON CENTER STAGE
A broad rally among financials helped stocks earlier this week, but the surge was derailed on Thursday after data showed jobless claims scaled to a new high, while new home sales slid to a record low.
For the week, the Dow fell almost 1 percent, the S&P 500 declined 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq dipped 0.1 percent.
But the Dow and S&P 500 recorded their worst January slide in history. January performance is typically a harbinger for stocks for the rest of the year.
Financials will be a critical group next week as investors nervously await any news on President Barack Obama's alternate plans to prop up banks' balance sheets and the ongoing drama surrounding the economic recovery legislation.
"The fiscal stimulus package buys us time until the banking system is recapitalized," said David Joy, chief market strategist at RiverSource Investments.
Any delays in passing the package "would be a very big setback for the stock market, no question," Joy said.
Defaults on subprime mortgages led to losses on mortgage-related debt in the summer of 2007, triggering the credit crunch and wreaking havoc in the banking sector that led to the meltdown on Wall Street last year. The banking turmoil and recession resulted in a sharp slowdown in bank lending, consumer spending and a rising tide of job losses, which the president hopes his stimulus package will mitigate by helping the economy begin to turn around.
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES LOOK ANEMIC
On Thursday, a slew of retailers will post same-store sales figures, which are expected to contract 2.4 percent in January. Excluding discount retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Investors will pay close attention to these numbers because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. gross domestic product, which shrank 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter -- the fastest pace in nearly 27 years.
The U.S. housing sector -- the root of the economic crisis -- will also be a focal point next week, although quarterly results from top U.S. home builders, D.R. Horton and Pulte Homes Inc
The week will kick off with a look at personal income and consumption, or spending, for December, plus the Institute for Supply Management's January index of U.S. manufacturing activity, both due on Monday. The ISM's January index of U.S. non-manufacturing, or service-sector, activity is due on Wednesday.
In an effort to stave off the recession, now in its second year, investors will look toward the Senate's debates on the economic stimulus package. But there are many serious stumbling blocks with Senate Republicans, led by former presidential candidate and Arizona Sen. John McCain, who is crafting an alternative package.
"We know that the banking industry is not aiding and abetting spending," Joy said. "If fiscal stimulus doesn't do the job, where is the demand that will keep us afloat until the banking system is healthy?
"This has to pass."
(The Wall St Week Ahead column appears every Friday. Comments or questions on this one can be e-mailed to deepa.seetharaman@thomsonreuters.com)
(Additional reporting by Leah Schnurr and Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jan Paschal)
