London Brent Oil
XBNT
Delayed - 06/23 11:00:00 pm
45.68
+0.87%

Not the favor of the investors

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01/21/2013 | 05:20 pm
Opinion : Bearish under 112.5 
Target price : 103.3 
No change at the beginning of the year on Brent.

On 18 January, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil demand in the world ... which are in contrast with the global economy. Indeed, the recent macroeconomic indicators have not shown real positive change.

China is a leading indicator as evolution of the black gold ; a growing demand in the country could quickly lead to higher prices.
For the moment, no sign of economic recovery may supply a possible resumption of Brent which is materialized by a neutral behavior of investors. We favor this scenario and a slowdown in the economy at the beginning of 2013, with a neutral/bearish bias.

Technically, Brent remains locked in a pennant identified last month. Volatility is greatly reduced and the amplitude is less than 2% (USD 110/112). The configuration is thus neutralized with daily and weekly moving averages completely linear; investors do not seem yet interested in the black gold.

We maintain a bearish bias below weekly moving averages converging at USD 112.5. However it seems more prudent to wait for a break of the pennantís lower bound in order to take a short position. We may anticipate a rapid return to USD 103.3 and in the longer term on the lows of 2012 at USD 91.
Etienne Veber
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