Real-time - 03/24 10:05:19 pm

Reduction of psychological aspect

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02/15/2013 | 06:01 pm
Opinion : Bearish under 1700 
Target price : 1560 
Whether for jewelry or investment, gold is not characterized as a basic necessity. It is not essential for the development of our planet. Without gold, the world would continue to turn, whereas it is not possible to transmit electricity without copper, build cars without steel or airplanes without aluminum.

The major component of the price of gold depends on a psychological factor due to its safe haven aspect. This differentiation from other precious metals, explains the increase of gold.

Indeed, the ounce of gold has increased for 12 years; itís historic! Nevertheless, it should integrate this exceptional and gradual performance in the overall trajectory of raw materials. The latter are within regular cycles of rising prices. Virtuous circle because more commodities rise more inflation intensifies and more investors are moving to gold.

Historically, these bullish phases were identified including the period 1968/1982 which saw the explosion of oil prices. Currently, it is reasonable to think that the end of a last cycle, which began since 1998/2000, is coming. This is the average time for the supply to meets demand; confirmation that performance is not infinite.

The gold prices are stabilizing for several months, corresponding to a broad reflection phase from investors whose motivation to buy the yellow metal has always been multifactorial (protection against inflation, loss of confidence in the dollar and research diversification of investments).

Gold has a feature that other metals have not. It is easily available and world inventories represent 60 times the annual production, enough to supply, low industrial needs (12% of demand).

Graphically, in weekly data, prices are in a consolidation phase confirming investors' doubts for the sustainability of the long uptrend. Since the peak of USD 1920 in June 2011, the precious metal draws a wide horizontal channel and argues for a further deceleration in prices. The 50 and 20-week moving averages are showing signs of weakness, paving the way for a potential stronger downward movement towards USD 1560. This perspective would find an obstacle in case of new positive stimulus above USD 1700.
Patrick Rejaunier
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