Deutsche Bank Research

Bundestagswahl Special 2017 The final countdown

Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Research

Research Bundestagswahl Special 2017, September 19, 2017

Frankfurt, September 19, 2017

Latest polls: The winner seems to be clear, but not the next government!

ARD Deutschlandtrend

37.0

20.0

9.5 9.0

7.5

12.0

5.0

  • According to the ARD Deutschland- trend (14.09.) only a renewed Grand Coalition or a coalition between Merkel's CDU/CSU, the liberals (FDP) and the Greens ("Jamaica") would be arithmetically possible.

  • In other recent polls the CDU/CSU has scored 36,5%-38%, the SPD'S range has been 20%-24%. Left: 8% - 10 ½%. Greens: 6%-9%, FDP: 8-10%

    and the AfD: 8%-12%.

  • However, polls show that a

CDU/CSU SPD Greens FDP Left AfD Others

Source: infratest dimap, Sept. 2017

substantial part of the voters (some say almost half) is still undecided.
  • The usual margin of error of these representative polls is about +/- 2 ½%

    And what is going to happen after September 24th?

    Disclaimer:

  • We do not have a crystal ball.

  • Our views on political issues are - like everyone else's - based on a subjective view of the world which is influenced by personal value judgments and prone to perception biases.

  • Election programs ≠ coalition programs ≠ government policy

  • The assignments of certain policy intentions and the examples are necessary simplifications to highlight differences. The programs of the mainstream parties discussed here show strong similarities in many areas. Some statements are - probably on purpose - very vague, making it difficult to deduct / anticipate actual measures.

  • Political developments have their own dynamics and are highly exogenous (e.g. refugee crisis 2015!)

  • Considerations regarding market reactions are supposed to highlight potential implications.

  • Given very similar positions of mainstream parties the actual market outcomes might not differ that much!

Who with whom or why (not)?

Reverse of the left-leaning social policy of the Great Coalition and more growth-friendly economic policy. Biggest conflict: European policy. What does it mean for the direction of "post-Merkel" CDU?

Would strengthen Merkel's "eco-left drift" and challenge Germany as an

industrial location. CSU and parts of CDU as well as parts of the Greens base remain sceptical (would they accept coalition building?).

Conflicts: tax and environmental policy. Rather weak constellation.

Still popular coalition in surveys. But probably the "coalition of last resort", if nothing else works. Might require massive concessions to SPD (social and labour policy!) What happens with Schäuble? Schulz probably needs about 25% to survive otherwise change in leadership (Nahles?, Scholz?) Approval of the base?

Reservations among people involved, head of the party ≠ party base. Merkel as moderator or risk of self-blockade? Would the Green Party agree? Is FDP willing to give up its renewed (market- liberal) "trade mark" for the sake of government jobs?

Deutsche Bank AG published this content on 19 September 2017 and is solely responsible for the information contained herein.
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